Notes

Win, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end? Ukraine
Russia’s allies like China – which has been a lukewarm friend to Putin in his war against Ukraine – have also been unable, or unwilling, to force him to the negotiating table. BBC correspondent James Waterhouse said Russia had increased its artillery and air strikes as well as missile attacks - gaining ground mile by mile in Luhansk while the Ukrainians are forced to retreat. Russia's invasion plan has not gone entirely to plan - Britain's Defence Intelligence says hundreds of Russian troops have been killed and resistance is stiff - but it is progressing.

Those who seek to invade another country anywhere across the great Eurasian steppes are condemned eventually to winter in it. There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine. That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West. When I see the determination of the Ukrainian people and soldiers, and the rapidly improving logistical situation for Ukraine, I see no other outcome but a Russian defeat.
The EU's decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova is more than just symbolic. It implicitly means continued backing for Kyiv, as a future in the EU for Ukraine would be impossible with a full-blown victory for Russia. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped.

What history shows: How will the war in Ukraine end?
The bill, which will funnel support to Ukraine for about the next five months, includes some $6bn budgeted for armoured vehicles and air defences. With no end in sight to the fighting, the US is sending more military, economic and humanitarian aid. The end of fighting in the southern port city of Mariupol has freed up Russian troops for redeployment elsewhere and allowed them to intensify their onslaught in the east. After eight years of fighting a Russian-backed breakaway insurgency in the east of their country they are now watching it being shelled, bombed and rocketed by their giant nuclear-armed neighbour. The Biden administration has said the war must end before Ukraine can join NATO, because it does not want to risk direct U.S. involvement.


Ukraine’s war reaches the one-year mark with no immediate end in sight. https://diigo.com/0vb9sq want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off. The Pentagon declined to say whether the GLSDB will be used to attack Russian targets in Crimea.

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The challenge now is training and equipping an armored force big enough and sophisticated enough to envelop Russia’s fighting force. “I would love to think the kinetic phase could end in 2023, but I suspect we could be looking at another three years with this scale of fighting,” Roberts said. Ukraine is a democratic country aggressively pursuing European integration.


Notably, in a reversal of perceptions a year ago, some experts could envision a decisive Ukrainian victory against Russia, but none forecasts a decisive Russian win against Ukraine. While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. Military experts warn that this means the war is likely to be prolonged, putting immense pressure on Ukraine to fight for several more years to come, potentially, and on its international partners to commit billions of dollars more in military, humanitarian and financial resources. Ukraine’s most important backer has yet to set out a clear objective, beyond strengthening Ukraine to give it a stronger bargaining hand. America has spent nearly $14bn on the war so far, and Congress has just allocated a further $40bn. America has rallied military donations from more than 40 other countries.


Many were so badly beaten and abused in detention that this acted as a major deterrent to further protest. Resistance has already begun, with a nationwide call-up of men of fighting age and 18,000 automatic weapons being handed out to the citizens of Kyiv, in addition to the uniformed army and reserves who are already putting up stiff resistance. "In the short term," says Brig Ben Barry from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, "a successful Russian seizure of Kyiv would be a military and political success with strategic impact. President Putin has clearly spent months closeted in isolation, studying his defence chiefs' plans to take over his West-leaning Slavic neighbour and bring it back into Moscow's orbit.

Regardless of a country’s government style, a leader is still dependent upon the support of a group of people, or coalition, to stay in power. This is partly because of the uncertainties surrounding the level of US and European support, a matter to which I will return in my conclusion. The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further.
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