Notes

Opinion Here Are 3 Ways to End the War in Ukraine One Might Actually Work.
At the same time, much depends on the ability of the United States and its partners to find some approach to grand strategy that can negotiate an acceptable end to the fighting and create a stable outcome to the war. Here again, the United States has failed to form effective grand strategies for achieving successful outcomes for its recent wars. Far too much of the current mix of sporadic military efforts to improve national military forces is, ad hoc, poorly coordinated, and uncertain.

“Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia — never,” President Joe Biden said in a speech in Poland this year, and rightly so. A number of European countries also rehearse for civil emergencies - with exercises that involve ordinary citizens as well as the military. It may also entail the seizure of Russian assets to help finance both the fighting and recovery.
But another McCarthy concession — a procedure allowing 218 members to force a House floor vote on any bill — could present an opportunity for pro-Ukraine Republicans and Democrats to pass additional funding for Kyiv. But Smith also said ATACMS producer Lockheed Martin no longer makes the missiles, and the U.S. military still needs them in its stockpiles. “Everything I have come to learn about the will and determination of the Ukrainians leads me to conclude retaking Crimea is within reach, and they need the artillery that will enable hitting targets — the sites of missiles destroying infrastructure in Ukraine,” he said. Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, expects the war to end at the negotiating table, but said serious diplomacy hasn’t begun because Putin is still clinging to “maximalist” goals. After imposing sanctions and export controls, Lichfield expects the West’s latest economic pressure point — oil price caps — to yield results because the Russian economy is so tightly linked to the energy market.

Ukraine breaks through
“The civil war in Northern Ireland ended partly because outside powers [the US in particular] put a lot of pressure and helped to build a framework [for peace]”. To keep up the military effort, Putin may need further mobilisation (something he said at his press conference not to be necessary). This is not a prediction but it would not wholly be a surprise if he decided that this was as good a moment as any to suggest the possibility of a ceasefire arrangement. Otherwise https://telegra.ph/BBC-explainer-What-do-Ukrainians-really-think-of-the-Russians-02-06 would be stuck with many more months of war without tangible progress and a growing sense of futility.

A second way for Ukraine to win — at least theoretically — would be through a diplomatic agreement. More recent theoretical literature had acknowledged the two-sidedness of war, Goemans writes, but here, too, important aspects had been missed. "Ukraine may shift tactics to deal with a downturn in Western aid, but I don't believe they will surrender." In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking. Moscow has proved resourceful when it comes to building autonomy into critical goods, Lichfield explained.
Despite his significant repressive apparatus, he did not have total control of the country. He kept calling the war a “special military operation” and delaying a mass mobilization, so as not to have to face domestic unrest. A great deal has happened since Russia invaded Ukraine on the morning of February 24th. The revelations of Russian weakness and Ukrainian strength have buoyed the Ukrainian public; the discovery of the massacres of civilians at Bucha and now Izyum have enraged it.

Ukraine recaptures its territory
Surovikin’s connections to Prigozhin left him banished (though not dead). There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war. If Putin now feels more confident it is because he weathered that particular storm. But it leaves a lingering “what if” question about the effect on the Russian system had there been more Ukrainian success or for that matter if the next mutineer has a clearer idea of what he is trying to achieve.


The first and most obvious way for Ukraine to win would be for its armed forces to take back all the territory Russia has unlawfully seized since its first invasion in 2014 —
including Crimea. And the United States should do everything possible to support it, including, if Congress approves more funding, by providing the more advanced weapons Ukraine has requested. The hope is that such a display of military strength might then force Russia to the negotiating table, but Vladimir Putin’s bellicose speech this week hardly suggests a leader willing to compromise soon. In reality, if Ukraine is going to force Russia from all its occupied territory, it is likely to take several more offensives, many months at least, and a dramatic change in Kremlin thinking.


While the invasion of Ukraine was started and waged by Mr Putin, Alexei Navalny says the real war party is the entire elite and the system of power itself, which is an "endlessly self-reproducing Russian authoritarianism of the imperial kind". Professor Clarke said the downfall of Mr Putin was only a matter of time and would likely be brought about from within the military and Russia's security service, with the support of oligarchs fed up with the Kremlin. Or Mr Putin could resort to more-drastic measures, including the use of nuclear weapons, Dr Oliker warns. "The Ukrainians, I think, have confounded most expectations — [but], I think, this is all contingent on Western support continuing," King's College London professor of conflict and security Tracey German said. While Ukrainian forces still have momentum, Russia currently controls about 18 per cent of Ukraine, including much of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, as well as Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014.


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