Notes

Ukraine fears that the war will end in a divided country, like North and South Korea International
There are fundamental differences in the Russian and Ukrainian positions. But the major dispute centres on a political settlement for the Donbas. But that seems unlikely now given the current talk of a possible invasion and of Russia's "red lines" in reaching a deal. His organisation is part of a Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) with Russia and Ukraine, created to implement the Minsk agreements. The ambassador believes a peaceful solution could work provided there is "political will". Stefan Wolff receives funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK.


But Biden and other Western leaders should tell them that this is an option they will have if their counteroffensive is still grinding on next year. https://notes.io/wi75A could prove the best chance to achieve the victory that Ukraine and the democratic world need soon, while making it both Putin- and Trump-proof. From energy bills to the price of cars, our business reporter Lora Jones explains why prices could rise globally. Both announced new sanctions aimed at hitting Russia's economy and the finances of its elites. As the day developed, we saw furious reaction from the US, UK and its allies.

Why is the Russian air force not more involved in the war? I rarely see any news regarding Russian strikes from the air. — Matt
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Ukrainians abroad on Monday for their support during Russia's invasion, and proposed changing the constitution to allow dual citizenship. "We understand the depth of the reasons that led to this kind of situation, but draw attention first and foremost to the depth of the threat that stands before our peoples," Zelenskyy said, adding that he welcomed Warsaw's work on the issue. "Poland will do everything to increase Ukraine's chances of victory in this war," Tusk said at a joint media briefing. Elsewhere, a fire broke out at a terminal of Russia's largest liquefied natural gas producer Novatek on the Baltic Sea, a regional official said on Sunday, amid reports of drone sightings in the area. Several other Russian oil terminals have been targeted in recent days, in the Bryansk and Leningrad regions.


While Americans back providing aid for Ukraine, a recent Pew Research Poll found nearly a quarter believe the country is providing too much support to Ukraine. The US has sent billions in crucial weaponry to help Kyiv fend off Russian attacks. But with Republicans poised to take control of Congress, there may be significant implications for the war. Vlada Chernykh, Ajuna Morozova and Alina Voronchikhina decided to join the volunteer Khartia Battalion, fighting for their city and their country. To avoid that scenario, NATO would likely first turn to increased sanctions and support Ukraine with weapons. It is unclear whether NATO would get involved in that scenario, Jones said.

NATO vs. Russia
Getting Biden’s recent supplemental funding request for Ukraine through the House of Representatives will be hard, and that money would last only through early 2024. Putin knows that the leading Republican candidate for president next year, former President Donald Trump, would end U.S. support for Ukraine, and that there are others like him in Europe. “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia — never,” President Joe Biden said in a speech in Poland this year, and rightly so.

Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, expects the war to end at the negotiating table, but said serious diplomacy hasn’t begun because Putin is still clinging to “maximalist” goals. Must there be a period of months or years in which Russia does not fire a single shell into Ukraine? The U.S. Congress approved four separate spending bills for Ukraine in the past year totaling $112 billion. Mr Putin has already annexed the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia through so-called referendums after pulling back troops to regroup in eastern Ukraine. Russia achieves a breakthrough in the east either very soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place in a few weeks, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails.
The plan is not for years of battle but the military defeat of Russia, she said. She highlighted Putin's climbdown over the "grain corridor" as an example of Russia's weakness. "In Russia, bad things happen to rulers who lose wars," Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine colonel and CSIS senior advisor, previously told Insider.


Russia's military strategy has at times been beset with logistical problems, confusing the picture of what Russia's main or immediate goals are. The analysts predicted refugee flows of 5 million to 10 million people from Ukraine to Western Europe. Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's and the West's next moves unpredictable. Although it is tempered by a grim knowledge that one wrong move could escalate the conflict into a situation once considered unthinkable.

It has cut diplomatic ties with Russia, offered weapons to anyone who wants them and declared an overnight curfew for Kyiv. Depending on how long the war lasts, it remains far from certain whether lawmakers will keep funding Ukraine aid packages. Ukrainians woke up to the sound of panicked texts and calls, and air raid sirens blaring over the capital, the first signs their fragile peace with Russia was broken.
Analysts say its forces also require more troops and would need to withstand an expected Russian onslaught in spring, between March and May. While the West believes it will be up to Ukraine to decide its future, there is no denying the outcome of the war will have far-reaching consequences for Europe and the rest of the world. Less than 12 months ago, few could have imagined the invasion continuing until today, much less predicted its conclusion. Ordinary citizens with normal, everyday lives were suddenly making heartbreaking decisions over whether to stay and fight or undertake the treacherous journey to a border crossing. Ukrainians woke up to the sound of panicked texts and calls, and air raid sirens blaring over the capital, the first signs their fragile peace with Russia was broken. One year after full-scale war returned to Europe for the first time since World War II, the invasion of Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight.


But the sizable swaths of terrain Ukraine wants to liberate will take time, and to even build the necessary forces will take six months, Donahoe estimated. Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine without frozen ground to support their armored vehicles, which meant they had to stick to roads, where they stood out as easy targets.


Ukrainians who settled in neighboring Poland have learned Polish, which has some similarities to Ukrainian. Many have continued their careers, working in tech, education or manufacturing here. Pressure would then grow on Kyiv to negotiate – not necessarily from the west, but perhaps led by China. However, Ukraine would be highly unlikely to formally cede any territory, given popular support for resistance to the Russian invasion.


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