Notes

What could happen in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024?
Even if cyberattacks didn’t wipe out Netflix, wartime Britons would still face a life without luxuries. While the Channel has long been the country’s greatest defence, it makes it hard to import in times of war. As well as curbs on foreign consumer goods, there’d be runs on more basic products like medical kits, fuel canisters and masking tape to stop windows shattering during bombing raids. A large diversion of citizens to military duty would leave gaps in the workforce to be filled, be it guarding food warehouses or building trenches and bomb shelters. Retired members of essential professions – doctors, nurses, morticians, police – would be urged back into service. As in Ukraine, office techies could be in demand to operate drones on the front lines and to fend off cyberattacks.


That's what's most likely today too, analysts say, so the effect on people with 401(k) accounts may be short term. The U.S. stock market has already been unusually volatile in recent weeks, churning over inflation, moves by the Federal Reserve to curb its stimulus programs and the looming conflict in Ukraine. "Markets are fundamentally not prepared for a land war in Europe in the 21st century," Rediker said. Ukrainian economic output and industry will likely be significantly disrupted. The country is a major source of neon, which is used in manufacturing semiconductors.

Russia's economy is still working but sanctions are starting to have an effect
Such brinkmanship has contributed to the return of nuclear arms into the power competition on a global stage. There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine. The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure.

Previous smaller-scale operations failed to resolve Russia's dispute with Ukraine or to meet Moscow's political objectives, Kofman said. Many people in Kyiv have sought shelter in underground metro stations. Second, he thinks that a western-leaning Ukraine is dangerous for Russia. Meanwhile, other Western defence sources have expressed concern about an increase in signals intelligence and "chatter" being monitored which could signal Russia's preparedness to invade. Russian Communist supporters hold flags including one of the Soviet Union, as they take part in a rally next to the Karl Marx monument, marking the "Defender of the Fatherland Day," the former "Day of the Soviet Army", in downtown Moscow on Feb. 23. In the Black Sea, west of occupied Crimea, Russian warships could cut off the Ukrainian port cities of Odessa, Mykolaiv and Kherso, which are crucial lifelines to global markets.
A war of attrition is now taking place along an active front line of 850km (530 miles) and Russian victories are small and rare. What was meant to be a quick operation is now a protracted war that Western leaders are determined Ukraine should win. President Putin never said it out loud, but high on the agenda was toppling the government of Ukraine's elected president. "The enemy has designated me as target number one; my family is target number two," said Volodymyr Zelensky.

How NATO's expansion helped drive Putin to invade Ukraine
The invasion could send 1 million to 5 million refugees fleeing Ukraine, U.S. officials and humanitarian agencies have warned. "They have been warning everyone about Russia's very specific tactics about the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure," Katerina Sedova, a researcher at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, told NPR. As a result, U.S. officials have warned various sectors, including the semiconductor and aerospace industries, to brace for supply chain disruptions. Further sanctions, energy market disruptions and cyberwarfare could reach Americans seemingly far removed from the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.


President Putin could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato. Mr Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming.


The decision of India’s Tata Steel this month to shut its two blast furnaces at Port Talbot, for example, means that Britain may soon be unable to make steel from scratch. Without steel, there are no tanks, no warships and no artillery shells. The decline in manufacturing means there are far fewer factories that can be converted to make arms, as happened in the Second World War, when car makers churned out Spitfire parts. And in a globalised world, many industries that are key in wartime rely on imports.

The Covid lockdown, which saw fights breaking out in queues at supermarkets and garages, was a glimpse of how trouble can spark during times of nationwide panic. Rumblings of discontent over continuing Ukraine aid have been heard in some Republican quarters for months now, as well as in Eastern Europe. Such a situation is a tinderbox in Europe, Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group's president, said in emailed comments Monday. He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states - which are members of Nato - such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad. Former U.S. https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-putin-obsessed-with-ukraine.html to NATO Kurt Volker told CNBC he believes American and EU aid packages for Ukraine will be approved come January, saying he believed this funding would tide Ukraine over for another year, militarily.
"We're going to need to see some meaningful de-escalation if there's actually going to be concrete progress," he said. If there is going to be progress, Blinken said, it won't "happen in an environment of escalation with a gun to Ukraine's head." His comments follow days of diplomatic talks and a deadlock on resolving the crisis brewing along the Ukraine-Russia border. For his part, Trump has said that he'd be able to resolve the Ukraine war "in one day" if he was reelected, saying he'd convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal. Rumblings of discontent over continuing Ukraine aid have been heard in some Republican quarters for months now, as well as in Eastern Europe. After liberating a handful of villages in the summer, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been caught in largely attritional battles, with neither side making significant gains.


The analysts predicted refugee flows of 5 million to 10 million people from Ukraine to Western Europe. Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's and the West's next moves unpredictable. On Tuesday, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, stopped the certification process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in response to Russia’s recognition of the two self-proclaimed republics. Mr Gorbachev said later that "the topic of Nato expansion was never discussed" at the time.


The collective West (and specifically NATO) can count on its likely ability to contain an aggressive Russia, at least in the long run. But Ukraine’s defeat of the aggressor is the indispensable goal in this context as it would severely limit Russia’s ability to attack other countries, provide time to augment collective defence and consolidate international unity against aggression. Madrid Summit decisions have supplied key elements of the required strategy. The credibility of collective defence will also depend on the quick implementation of already-announced pledges for increased defence spending and the prioritisation of defence planning efforts based on the scenario of large-scale conflict in Europe. In this context, appropriate stockpiles of military equipment are essential. As current levels are eminently insufficient, procurement practices and defence industry production capacity must be adapted, and stocks augmented quickly.

Another way Russia could respond to U.S. sanctions is through cyberattacks and influence campaigns. Russia's defence ministry has denied attacking Ukrainian cities - saying it was targeting military infrastructure, air defence and air forces with "high-precision weapons". His declared goal on 24 February 2022 was to "demilitarise and denazify" Ukraine and not occupy it by force, days after backing independence for eastern Ukrainian territories occupied by Russian proxy forces since 2014. Moscow increasingly restricts the movement of Ukrainian-bound vessels in the area, and experts say Russia could blockade the southeastern port cities of Berdyansk and Mariupol, choking off an important shipping channel.
Even if Russia chooses not to limit exports, supplies could still be affected by the conflict in Ukraine because multiple pipelines run through the country, carrying gas from Russia to Europe. "They could simply be casualties of a military invasion," Rediker said. For one, Russia could choose to cut off or limit oil and gas exports to Europe as retaliation for sanctions. Nearly 40% of the natural gas used by the European Union comes from Russia — and no European country imports more than Germany, a key ally of the United States.

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