Notes

What does Russias war in Ukraine mean for UK?
Some global wheat prices have risen by more than 40 per cent this year and food and non-alcoholic beverages comprise 11.5 per cent of the CPI basket. So, price increases and potential shortages in these non-energy commodities represent additional upside risks to our inflation forecast and downside risks to our real GDP forecast. But because the UK operates in international gas markets, prices will be hit by any drop in global supply. The UK government is providing a range of economic, humanitarian and defensive military assistance to Ukraine, and is imposing additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus. GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) urged UK businesses and organisations to “bolster their online defences”, warning that there has been a “historical pattern of cyber attacks on Ukraine with international consequences”. The British government is pushing for Russia to be expelled from the Swift global payment network as the UK braces for a spike in gas and oil prices following Vladimir Putin’s order for an invasion of Ukraine.


The decision of India’s Tata Steel this month to shut its two blast furnaces at Port Talbot, for example, means that Britain may soon be unable to make steel from scratch. Although the UK only depends on Russia for around three per cent of our gas supply, Europe is heavily reliant, with the country accounting for nearly 40 per cent of gas used by EU members. The cap is adjusted twice a year in line with Ofgem in line with wholesale price changes and is already due to rise by £693 to £1,971 in April. To indicate which parts of Ukraine are under control by Russian troops we are using daily assessments published by the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project.

Ukraine war: Grim new year for Ukrainians under shadow of Russian attack
Russian ground troops moved in quickly and within a few weeks were in control of large areas of Ukraine and had advanced to the suburbs of Kyiv. It notes the building gives Ukraine a "localised defensive advantage" and says Russian forces will probably suffer significant losses if they attempt to assault the facility. Russia has also made advances north east of Kupiansk, north of Bakhmut, and south west of Avdiivka, according to the latest ISW assessment. The ISW does note that Russia's advances might be the result of Ukrainian forces withdrawing to "more defensible positions" near Robotyne. The village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region could offer a similar stepping stone but Russian forces are reported to have made some advances in the area.

He talked about the need for the UK's "pre-war generation" to prepare for the possibility of war and said that was a "whole-of-nation undertaking". Russia produces around six per cent of the world’s aluminium and seven per cent of its mined nickel. One ex senior minister suggested to me that there was a generational divide between those who had lived with the threat of the Cold War era, and those who had not. Food prices, which were already subject to inflation prior to the invasion, are set to surge further still.
Mr Johnson promised to hit Russia with a “massive” package of sanctions designed to “hobble” the economy in Moscow. This is because Nato uses a system of collective security, whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party. If Ukraine was part of Nato, the military alliance which is made up of 30 member states, including the US and UK, every Nato nation would have to launch an armed attack against Russia. If war broke out in Ukraine and Russian forces occupied large swathes of the country, many civilians might flee.

What Does War In Ukraine Actually Mean For The UK?
Wholesale gas and electricity prices, which, like food prices, were already significantly higher than normal, have soared this week amid fears Russia will respond to international sanctions by cutting off gas supply to Europe. All the expeditionary wars involved victories that came, generally, in a matter of weeks, sometimes days. As a result, recent military planners assumed the amount of ammunition required and preparation needed would be limited. Russia has now dug in and consolidated in eastern Ukraine, consequently, a war of attrition is under way.

There would also be concerns about looting, especially if food shortages started to bite. The city of Bakhmut, which has endured some of the heaviest fighting of the war, has been under Russian control for several months and, although Ukraine gained some ground in the surrounding areas over the summer, the battles continue. All of this disruption could massively increase the price of gas in Europe and, consequently, the UK. Air Vice Marshal Bell says the other reason the attack on the Moskva was successful was because it had been manoeuvring in a way that left it vulnerable to attack. That means “the price of items such as bread, baked goods and beer could rise”, The Times warned.
General Sir Patrick Sanders will stress the need for the Government to “mobilise the nation” in the event of war with Russia in a speech on Wednesday. He highlighted the threat from Russia and pointed to steps being taken by other European nations to put their populations on a "war footing". But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute. If we took casualties at the rate the Ukrainians are taking them, the NHS would immediately be overwhelmed, and for years we’ve missed recruitment targets for the Armed Forces.


Some migrants might stay in neighbouring Poland and eastern European countries, but some might head further west and eventually end up in the UK. Many analysts fear war in Ukraine could potentially spill over into other European countries. But both of these demands would break key Nato principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all Nato members should be sovereign nations. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-does-china-think-of-russia-and-ukraine.html wants Nato to make a legally binding promise that Ukraine will never become a member. It also wants Nato to withdraw its forces from most Eastern European countries.


The UK aspires to spend 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence, and Mr Shapps has said he would like to increase this to 3 per cent, though he failed to set a date last week for the target. On Tuesday, Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, met with the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, where he urged others to join the UK in increasing their aid. The British public will be called up to fight if the UK goes to war because the military is too small, the head of the Army is to warn. One senior Conservative MP told the BBC he did not think Rishi Sunak had fully appreciated the threat posed by Russia.


“Wheat prices went up £15 a tonne” in the hours after Putin gave the order for an invasion, the broadcaster said, while “soybeans hit their highest prices since 2012” and “corn jumped to an eight-month peak”. The government has already announced a package of sanctions against Russia, targeting Kremlin-linked billionaires, banks and companies. However, those sanctions are “now expected to be significantly expanded”, said The Times. Many countries have already raced to impose other sanctions on Moscow following the unprovoked attack on Ukraine.

But he was making the point that if war broke out troop numbers would be too small. It comes after a senior Nato military official warned that private citizens should prepare for an all-out war with Russia in the next 20 years, which would require wholesale change in their lives. It means that some of the population will have had some military training - and can then be assigned to reserve units should war break out. He highlighted numerous threats, but there is one common thread amid all these warnings - Russia. Russian forces have launched a full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, attacking locations across the country. But his remark lives on as a challenge to all policymakers thinking about whether to engage diplomatically - and even militarily - in a potential conflict between two foreign countries.
Recent assessments by the ISW show Russian forces have made advances north of Bakhmut. The city of Bakhmut, which has endured some of the heaviest fighting of the war, has been under Russian control for several months and, although Ukraine gained some ground in the surrounding areas over the summer, the battles continue. The town is sometimes described as the gateway to the city of Donetsk, which has been occupied by Russia and its proxy forces since 2014. Taking Avdiivka - which lies close by - would allow Russia to push the front line back, making it harder for the Ukrainian forces to retake the territory.


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