Notes

What happened in the Russia-Ukraine war this week? Catch up with the must-read news and analysis Ukraine
President Biden's virtual meeting with President Putin earlier this week was a start and will be followed up by more talks with other Nato members. While https://euronewstop.co.uk/why-is-the-uk-interested-in-ukraine.html said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank. "Added to that are the recent border crisis involving thousands of migrants in Belarus, as well as Russia's backing of separatists in the Caucasus and elsewhere," he said. The war that erupted in eastern Ukraine in 2014 has already left 14,000 dead and an estimated 1.4 million displaced.


While some Western governments will secretly balk at the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged over $40 billion in security assistance to Kyiv) many understand the high stakes, Barrons said. Mr Sullivan said Western leaders were completely united and would respond harshly to a Russian invasion with devastating economic and trade sanctions. "There is a risk for a full-fledged invasion," warned Mr Stoltenberg, but he added other threats were lurking too, "including attempts to topple the government in Kyiv." "From here in the Black Sea region, all the way to the Baltic, allies are stepping up to reinforce NATO's presence at this critical time," NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said from Constanta. But diplomats and government leaders have struggled to jump-start moribund talks to stave off war.

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Meanwhile in Moscow, President Vladimir Putin told defence officials that in Ukraine he would “not give up what is ours”, while claiming the Russian military had momentum. Labour's Keir Starmer and many Conservative backbenchers have called for further military options to be explored. So far the UK government has sent troops (now withdrawn) to train the Ukrainian army, and supplied them with defensive weapons. The dependence of many European countries on Russian gas may also contribute to upward pressure on commodity prices as they seek alternative supplies from elsewhere.

Many people in Ukraine want the country to join Nato to avoid being dominated by Russia. Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. The Ukrainian armed forces said they had shot down five Russian planes and a helicopter - which Russia denies - and inflicted casualties on invading troops. Russians tanks were filmed on the outskirts of Kyiv on Friday morning.
President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control. Under Article 5 of the military alliance's charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all. But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms.

Sky News Services
“If that continues, we will all eventually lose interest in saving the system. Artem is one of at least 4,500 Ukrainian servicemen and women believed to be in captivity in Russia as prisoners of war. Their families are often deprived of even elementary information about their location and wellbeing. Artem, 31, was a member of Ukraine’s Azov regiment and was taken prisoner at the end of the siege of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol last May. It was only in March this year that Russia officially confirmed to the Red Cross that Artem was being held prisoner there; Natalia has heard nothing since and had no news from him directly.

Hall said "Putin's opinion has always been that Ukrainians and Russians are the same people, that they're part of the Slavic Brotherhood of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine." But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. Indeed, for all the foreboding about societal collapse, facing a common threat could give Britain a new-found sense of unity – something many Ukrainians speak of. Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian attacks are increasing again in some parts of the country but they have not yet had any significant impact. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes.
The official, who was not authorised to speak publicly and did so only on condition of anonymity, would not say how definitive the intelligence was. US officials said the State Department would announce the evacuation of its embassy in Kyiv. "And that's what Putin wants, to play a strong enough game with gas supply and price that those countries give up supporting Ukraine." He adds that for countries previously more dependent on Russian energy - such as Germany and Hungary - the burden of sanctions may soon become too much. "But if you have a system that's increasingly oppressive with no opposition, you'll start to find small groups carrying out isolated attacks."

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A senior European Union official has denied member states are discussing financial coercion to force Hungary to agree on financing for Ukraine. Kara-Murza, who suffers from a nerve disorder after surviving two poison attacks, was jailed for 25 years last April for treason and spreading "false information" about the Russian war in Ukraine. Defense experts say it's unlikely the counteroffensive will see any breakthroughs this year.

Many analysts had previously believed that any invasion was unlikely to start until after the Winter Olympics in China end on February 20. Ukrainian military intelligence said it did not have “reliable and comprehensive” information about who or what was onboard the Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft, which was filmed crashing and exploding in a fireball on Wednesday afternoon. Right now, such scenarios tend to exercise only the minds of Ministry of Defence war-gamers and military thriller writers. Putin has said Ukrainians and Russians “were one people — a single whole,” or at least would be if not for the meddling from outside forces (as in, the West) that has created a “wall” between the two. But be we warriors or wimps, now is the time to start facing up to the prospect, says Ed Arnold, a European Security Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border. The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". The US' "chaotic" withdrawal from Afghanistan, new leaders of Germany and the UK, and pressure for France's president all meant Putin thought there was no "capable Western leadership" to oppose Russian aggression, he said. This is despite Ukraine having a Jewish president in Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and there being no evidence the country's leadership is controlled by Nazis.


But the country is the fourth largest recipient of military funding from the US, and the intelligence cooperation between the two countries has deepened in response to threats from Russia. But the very premise of a post-Soviet Europe is also helping to fuel today’s conflict. Putin has been fixated on reclaiming some semblance of empire, lost with the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin has said Ukrainians and Russians “were one people — a single whole,” or at least would be if not for the meddling from outside forces (as in, the West) that has created a “wall” between the two. Some preeminent American foreign policy thinkers argued at the end of the Cold War that NATO never should have moved close to Russia’s borders in the first place. But NATO’s open-door policy says sovereign countries can choose their own security alliances.


"Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border. And as we said before, we're in a window when an invasion could begin at any time," Mr Blinken said. In a demonstration of American commitment to NATO allies, the Pentagon is sending 3,000 more combat troops to Poland to join 1,700 already assembling there, a senior US defence official said. The official provided the information under ground rules set by the Pentagon. Russia is also massively boosting military spending in 2024, with almost 30% of its fiscal expenditure to be directed toward the armed forces.


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