Notes

What could happen in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024?
Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. Maybe it takes longer for Russian forces to secure cities like Kyiv whose defenders fight from street to street. The fighting has echoes of Russia's long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out.


"The second Il-76 plane was flying next, which was carrying about 80 more prisoners of war; they managed to turn it around," Kartapolov said. It said 16 people had been killed in 19 Russian rocket attacks on the Kharkiv region, which borders Belgorod, in the last week. Zelenskyy said he'd instructed the foreign ministry to inform Ukraine's allies of the matter. "Our state will insist on an international investigation," he said. Peskov said the Russian military was investigating the crash, saying it was "still unclear what happened; investigators began studying the remains of the plane only yesterday." Prisoner exchanges are a thorny subject between Russia and Ukraine, although both sides have a vested interest in carrying out sporadic swaps of prisoners of war.

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios
Ukraine, after all, is situated at the doorstep of the European Union and NATO, both of which have a vested interest in ensuring that the country’s sovereignty is maintained and that Russia’s aggression is curtailed. https://richard-andresen.hubstack.net/stopping-chrome-news-feed-a-comprehensive-guide continues, the greater the refugee crisis that Europe is likely to face, and the riskier the situation becomes for NATO, which has gone to great lengths to avoid being drawn into direct conflict with Russian troops. Russian officials often criticise Nato military support for Ukraine and in an interview last week with the BBC the country's Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, cited the prospect of Ukraine joining the Western alliance as a reason for the invasion in the first place.


Hein Goemans Well, some people would say yes, because it makes clear that this is a war caused by a commitment problem that no peace deal will stick. But more generally it’s because the underlying dynamic is different from the short war. Everybody in Britain knows that it started in 1914 and ended in 1918. But one of the interesting things is that in November 1914, there was a Crown Council in Germany with the chancellor, with the Kaiser, William the Last, as I like to refer to him, and the chief of staff where they all agreed they can’t win. What happened there is that they had the Schlieffen Plan.

Russia-Ukraine war could last for years, say western leaders
A senior Russian lawmaker said Ukrainian military intelligence had been given a 15-minute warning before a Russian military transport plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war entered an area where it was shot down on Wednesday. Ukraine’s forces remain on the defensive in the eastern Donbas region, where fighting continues in Sievierodonestsk. Serhiy Haidai, the governor of the Luhansk region, said Russia was massing forces in an attempt to take full control of the city after weeks of fighting.


The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure. The government is replaced with a pro-Moscow puppet regime. President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile. President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control.

On the offensive this spring
But industrial capacities are spotty, and nations have started to scrutinize how much equipment they can spare while maintaining their own self-defense requirements and that of NATO. Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile front line and extensive Russian defensive fortifications — in some places up to 19 miles deep — that were built in winter while Ukraine was waiting for more heavy weaponry from its allies before launching its counteroffensive in June. Recently, Ukraine's winter offensive seems to have come to a halt. More than ever, the outcome depends on political decisions made miles away from the centre of the conflict - in Washington and in Brussels.

"Ukraine may shift tactics to deal with a downturn in Western aid, but I don't believe they will surrender." China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates. Ukraine is working to organise a visit by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said on Thursday, in remarks related to Reuters by her aide. I think that if Zelenskyy made a deal which gave up, you know, the four annexed areas.
Hein Goemans Let me start with a very basic kind of introduction to the topic. There is a war because both sides ask more than the other’s willing to give. So for a war to end, the minimum war aims of at least one side must change.


Sanctions, meanwhile, have hurt Russia’s economy and have cut it off from supply chains crucial to sustaining Putin’s war machine. It came as the new head of the British army said British troops must prepare “to fight in Europe once again”. “There is now a burning imperative to forge an army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle,” Gen Sir Patrick Sanders said, writing to his charges about the challenges they face. Ukrainian officials have spoken bluntly in recent days about the need to boost the supply of heavy weapons to the country if Russian forces there are to be defeated. The prime minister, who visited Ukraine's capital on Friday, said supplies of weapons, equipment, ammunition, and training to Kyiv needed to outpace Moscow's efforts to rearm itself. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war.


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