Notes

Most Russians say they support the military, according to this pollster : NPR
Why Russians do not protest is perhaps better explained by Russian history and not opinion polls. From fleeting impressions and conversations it is hard to draw firm conclusions. Sociologists and pollsters have tried to gauge opinion, but there is no freedom of speech or information in Russia so it is impossible to tell if people are being honest. In Belgorod, close to the Ukrainian border and just 80km (50 miles) from the now war-torn city of Kharkiv, local people are now used to convoys of military trucks roaring towards the front line. Permafrost is the permanently frozen ground found across the Arctic. As it thaws, it creates massive problems for infrastructure built on top of it, causing roads to buckle, building foundations to crack and pipelines to break.

And the chaos itself can backfire — or at least quickly diminish its effectiveness — when out of step with lived experience, further undermining legitimacy in the state. None of us wanted this war, and we stand in opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions. Since Russia annexed Ukraine's southern Crimea peninsula and backed militants in the eastern Donbas region in 2014, there's been no real let-up in fighting, cyber-attacks and misinformation. In addition, her group calls for greater control by prosecutors and human rights ombudsmen at recruitment points and for compulsory military service to be replaced by social services away from the frontlines.
Ilya (name changed), who is in his early 30s, has just finished paying off his mortgage in Moscow. "I always pay with my phone but it simply didn't work. There were some other people with the same problem. It turned out that the barriers are operated by VTB bank which is under sanctions and cannot accept Google Pay and Apple Pay. Like other interviewees for this article we are not using his full name or showing his face for security reasons. "I am scared here - people have been arrested for speaking against 'the party line'. I feel ashamed and I didn't even vote for those in power." Millions of Russians like him are starting to feel the effect of Western economic sanctions designed to punish the country for invading neighbouring Ukraine. "The rouble (Russia's currency) will fall and people will have it really bad. So this must be avoided. It is not people's fault, but it will be ordinary people who will be hit," he said.

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Right now, we cannot withdraw other currencies at ATMs until September. And we’re seeing products disappear from shelves – rice, flour, sugar, canned food – but I guess that’s really just because of mass panic. I have never seen empty shelves in stores in the centre before. Yesterday, I couldn’t buy contact lenses because they ran out in the store where I would normally buy them. It seems like it will close – I saw employees removing shelves and emptying boxes, and the light was turned off.


Standard polling often concentrates on population centers including Moscow and St. Petersburg, which can skew national averages. Outside of those major cities, a more negative picture emerges. Our analysis shows that the Kremlin is increasingly unable to control public sentiment outside major cities with national propaganda.

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Ukrainians held a positive view of the Russian people throughout this period and only turned against the Russian state and its president in 2014 in response to Putin’s aggression. As Bekeshkina has written, “In getting Crimea, Putin has lost Ukraine.” Putin’s war will only end when this fact is finally realized in Moscow. In effect, our analysis suggests that the social contract between Russians and the Putin regime is fraying. Bankrolled by high energy prices over the last two decades, the public has acquiesced to Putin’s autocratic rule in exchange for improved living standards and functional public services.


Somewhat confusing the situation is the fact that most Ukrainians are able to speak or easily understand both Russian and Ukrainian. For many Ukrainians, especially in the south and eastern regions of the country, Russian is the first language. According to the last full census taken in 2001, 17.3 per cent of the citizens of independent Ukraine identified themselves as ethnic Russians. This was a decline of almost five percentage points from 1989, reflecting in part an out-migration of Russians after the breakup of the Soviet Union.


Almost three-quarters of Ukrainians believe that their country will join NATO and the European Union within a decade, Gallup’s polling shows. https://rentry.co/zi7srf2b are deeply confident in their military, with approval ratings at a record high of 95%, according to Gallup. Support for Zelenskyy has faltered slightly but is still overwhelmingly strong at 81%. “Although there is some evidence of fatigue, Ukrainians overall remain committed to winning the war,” Ray said.

Plus, I can see that despite many years of huge protests, the people have not achieved anything at all. “It’s not about having to reconsider this one event but everything you thought and understood over the last ten or fifteen years,” Volkov told me. By mid-2014, positive views of Russia had fallen to 52 percent. Volkov adds that public opinion matters, even though the Russian government isn't taking the public's pulse in order to plan its next moves. “I grew up in the Soviet Union, where we were all brothers and sisters,” he said. The economic collapse looming as a consequence of the sanctions imposed by Western states erodes popular consent for his rule, potentially even among those who rely on state-sponsored media for information.
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