Notes

Ukraine: How might the war end? Five scenarios
Viewed from any angle, Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine is nothing short of an unmitigated disaster for Russia. Having failed in the pursuit of its war aims, Russia’s campaign in the last week has achieved little except an increase in its own casualties and equipment losses. “If Russia were to use nuclear weapons, the West might then become directly involved in the war in Ukraine in terms of putting forces in [the country]. Under Nato's Article 5 the entire western military alliance is obliged to come to the defence of any member state that comes under attack.


Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. And long, exhaustive fighting carries its own risks, according to Benjamin Jensen, a war gaming expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. That’s because the longer conflicts last, the more they exhaust finite resources and, hence, the parties are more willing to gamble.

Kherson's underground resistance: How ordinary people fought Russia from the shadows
“So sanctions actually do become a tool of military engagement.” But in the context of a settlement, the international community would need to prioritise peace, not maximum humiliation for Russia. Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum and the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, told me that a real victory for Ukraine is one where the country is in a more secure position than it was before the war began. This is the second Russian-Ukrainian war in the last decade, she notes, and a meaningful victory should stop a third war from ever happening. Practically speaking, in the short term, Orysia says, “Ukraine will have to push Russia out of as much territory as possible, including the occupation in the south and in Donbas”. Scott Boston, a senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp., told CNBC on Friday that the Russians "have a whole lot of combat power left and a lot of capacity to scale up the violence, which seems to already be happening. This thing could really drag on for a long time." Less than two weeks into Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the country's people and armed forces continue to mount a staunch — and undeniably brave — resistance against Russian forces.


We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. Most analysts doubt this means their use is likely or imminent.

Ukraine invasion — explained
In theory, they could threaten to curtail support if they grow weary of the war or if Ukraine, encouraged by its military advances, crosses a threshold that could spark an escalation unacceptable to the West. Previous wars, like the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, too have hinged on such external assistance. At https://etextpad.com/kebgvtzbx6 in this conflict Russia has resembled Iran’s position, and Ukraine has mirrored Iraq’s in that war — if only incompletely — said Jeremy Morris, professor of global studies at Aarhus University in Denmark. Without a critical mass of support, resistance to the Russian military will fall apart and Ukraine will lose the war.

Because let's face it, that is what a lot of people are understandably asking and thinking in the light of the Kremlin's recent actions over Ukraine - actions and statements that have triggered a deluge of denouncements and sanctions from the West. There’s no evidence, however, that the war has turned his country’s political and military elite against him or any sign of mass disaffection that could threaten the state. U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. Alexei Kulemzin said Ukraine was behind the strike on the eastern Ukrainian city, which is currently under Russian occupation.
And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons.


Russia was not present at the discussions, however, and U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby stated ahead of the talks that the White House did not expect any "tangible deliverables." That scenario could embolden critics of the war; increase public discontent with continued funding for Ukraine; and pose a problem in terms of arms production and supplies for the West. The war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand.

While he said such an attack is unlikely now, "our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible". Notably, in a reversal of perceptions a year ago, some experts could envision a decisive Ukrainian victory against Russia, but none forecasts a decisive Russian win against Ukraine. As the war enters its second year, the spigot of military aid is still gushing. The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. As a result, Russia essentially stopped flying fighter jets over Ukraine.
Ideally, the two sides do this based upon their relative probabilities of winning a hypothetical war. The suffering and destruction in Ukraine and the economic turmoil the war has produced in the West should be compelling enough reasons to end it. Ditto the devastation it continues to create in some of the world’s poorest countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yemen. Along with devastating droughts and local conflicts, it has led to staggering increases in the price of basic foods (with both Ukrainian and Russian grains, to one degree or another, blocked from the market). More than 27 million people are already facing acute food shortages or outright starvation in those four nations alone, thanks at least in part to the conflict in Ukraine.

“If leaders explain the stakes and the costs, this is a manageable burden,” he told me. Kuzio noted that there has been speculation about Moscow seeking to install former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was stripped of his powers by Ukrainian lawmakers during the 2014 Maidan Revolution and fled Kyiv for Russia. Ideally, the two sides do this based upon their relative probabilities of winning a hypothetical war. The tactical agreement to allow grain exports via the Black Sea was seen as a tentative sign of cooperation – the UN chief, António Guterres, hailed the agreement as “a beacon of hope”. He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources". This suggests that the two sides will have difficulty ever resolving the information problem.
However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. Mr Szijarto will be in the western Ukrainian city of Uzhhorod with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba and presidential chief of staff Andriy Yermak. Peter Szijjarto has arrived in Ukraine for talks with senior officials today. "The United States maintains by far the world's most powerful nuclear stockpile, but with the US out of the mix, the French and British, with their much smaller arsenals, would be Europe’s only nuclear deterrent," Mr OBrien says. He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources".

The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons. It is vital to remember that anything Ukrainians, especially the ones running the country, say about their Russian enemies comes in the heat of a fight that they see, correctly, as a struggle for national survival. That hasn't let up, if only because it's a powerful emotional and recruitment tool. Analysts of course agree that an unequivocal withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine would be best possible outcome for the country in its dire situation.
Twenty million Soviets — Russians, Ukrainians and others — died fighting Hitler's armies. This is an edited and abbreviated transcript of our conversation. The most important question in all of this, Greene says, is what the west’s response will be because their priority is keeping Russia isolated at least to some degree to stop them from waging further war. “The more you keep Russia isolated the harder it is for them to reinvest in their military,” he says.


It's promising to deploy British forces to eastern European members of the Nato military alliance if Russian troops cross Ukraine's borders. Britain - like other western powers - is coming to Ukraine's aid. It's threatening economic sanctions against Russia if it invades. It's providing Ukraine with anti-tank weapons and armoured vehicles. For more than six months, Guardian correspondents in Ukraine have delivered powerful, independent reporting.

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