Notes

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Hungary signals 'major shift' in Ukraine funding stance; Russia claims it has taken control of Kharkiv village
“A humanitarian crisis is unfolding before our eyes, leaving thousands dead, forcing millions of refugees to flee their homes and threatening an economic recovery that was under way after two years of the pandemic,” she said. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied. In response to the invasion, the geopolitical risk index developed by the US Federal Reserve spiked to the highest level since the start of the Iraq war in 2003. But he adds that this disruption is "nothing" compared to the ripple effect from rising energy prices. Mr McFadden also said the government "must look again at Labour's proposal for a one-off windfall tax on oil and gas producers to cut household energy bills by up to £600". The UK government is providing a range of economic, humanitarian and defensive military assistance to Ukraine, and is imposing additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

But we now see more clearly that, in a crisis, for the foreseeable future UK interests are aligned with the US and Europe, especially if China aligns itself more with Russia. However, any disruption to the supply of energy to Europe will affect wholesale prices in the UK to a greater extent than implied by direct trade links. The government is likely to face further pressure on its tentative support for onshore wind and solar. With war raging in Ukraine, many fear ministers will be distracted from climate action. Labour's shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, Pat McFadden, said households were facing "a year of surging inflation, weak earnings growth and tax rises".
In talks with Sergei Shogiu, Mr Wallace said he urged dialogue to resolve the crisis in eastern Ukraine. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would have "tragic consequences" for both countries, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has warned his counterpart in Moscow. President Biden's virtual meeting with President Putin earlier this week was a start and will be followed up by more talks with other Nato members.

How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could spill over into Europe
The Bank of England raised interest rates again in March to try and moderate rising prices. The CEBR predicts that inflation will now peak at 8.7% next quarter and then stay twice as high as expected until the second half of 2023. This means a shopping basket that cost £20 a year ago will cost almost £22 in the next few months. He called for the government to halt a planned National Insurance increase in April. "All sectors grew in January with some industries that were hit particularly hard in December now performing well." All in all, the economy was on course to maintain its return to normal after the pandemic.

The UK stands with Ukraine, its democratically-elected government and its brave people at this awful time. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. Policy responses to Ukraine should address all the interlocking crises, says Bernice Lee from Chatham House.
All three lead to higher consumer prices, which will mean a reduction in households’ ‘real’ incomes (that is, adjusted for inflation) and therefore consumption, limiting their economic output (GDP). Ukraine is the world’s second biggest exporter of grains and Russia often tops the ranking for wheat exports. Any disruption to flows would quickly ripple through to buyers globally, raising costs for bread and meat. And while commodity prices tend to be only a small proportion of the price of final food products, UK consumers would be likely to see higher prices on supermarket shelves – this could manifest later this year at a time of already high inflation. Soaring energy costs and supply chain disruption caused by Covid have driven inflation to the highest levels in three decades.

Energy has become the dominant issue in UK politics
However, any disruption to the supply of energy to Europe will affect wholesale prices in the UK to a greater extent than implied by direct trade links. UK and European gas prices have moved in tandem in 2022.[9],[10] This is because traders buy gas in the UK to avoid higher prices in Europe then export it to the continent, both reducing UK supply and causing prices to rise in Europe, until the prices equalise. Disruption to Russian gas exports to other European countries would also push up prices in other markets the UK uses, such as Norway, as demand would rise across Europe. However, experts said the conflict in Ukraine – which has triggered a surge in oil and gas prices, as well as renewed supply chain disruption – would hit firms across Europe and drag down industrial production over the coming months. The economic impact of the war will depend on the extent to which the conflict, and therefore the severity of sanctions and economic disruption, escalates and how long it lasts. Below is https://matzen-larsen.thoughtlanes.net/feet-bringing-good-news-a-celebration-of-beauty of how disruption to the trade of energy and commodities could affect the UK and other European economies under three broad scenarios.


The government's independent advisory Climate Change Committee recently warned that any new North Sea projects will take an average of 28 years to start producing oil and gas. The ‘global’ in Britain was reflected in an ambition to more deeply engage in the Indo-Pacific, to adapt to China’s growing power and climate and global health objectives. Another risk is that Sunak’s can-kicking over budgets postpones the serious investment needed in military supplies. Western materiel and equipment are being depleted at a rapid rate on the battlefields of Ukraine, leading to concerns that neither government nor industry have moved to the war-footing required for resupply. Serious discussion of defence spending, procurement and supply will be a new reality for the government for years to come. The Russian invasion displaced Ukrainians who, fleeing the conflict, became refugees in need of accommodation and support.


Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. "The document referred to in the Financial Times article is a background note written by the secretariat of the council under its own responsibility which describes the current status of the Hungarian economy," the statement by the senior EU official said. Earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron said he thought a deal to avoid full-scale war in Ukraine was possible. Mr Wallace states the UK government's position in the minor key compared to the fortissimo of the foreign secretary. Russia has made a series of security proposals, including a demand to rule out Ukraine's membership of the Nato defence alliance. At a news conference on Friday, Mr Wallace said that Russian forces were in a position to invade "at any time", but he had been given security assurances by Mr Shogiu.


The economic consequences of the Ukraine invasion are pushing both inflation and growth in the wrong direction. Russia's invasion of Ukraine means significant uncertainty for the UK economy, the chancellor has warned. We won't know for some time how badly Ukraine's landscape, nature and climate action will be impacted by the war. Many experts say it is too soon to tell how Russia's invasion will affect its participation in climate diplomacy and international action, such as at the next yearly United Nations climate talks, COP27, in Egypt in November. A small group of around 18 Conservative MPs want the UK to increase its own fossil fuel supply by boosting North Sea fossil fuel production and lift the fracking moratorium.

However, experts said the conflict in Ukraine – which has triggered a surge in oil and gas prices, as well as renewed supply chain disruption – would hit firms across Europe and drag down industrial production over the coming months. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied. Ms Batters said the shortage of crops would also affect meat production as farmers need it to feed their livestock. Almost 20% of the UK's vegetable product imports come from there, according to UN Comtrade data. British diplomats said Mr. Cameron and other senior officials had made it a priority to reach out to Republicans who were hostile to further aid. “We realised the weapons and the sanctions were the real levers that we had over Russia but we were behind the curve in terms of our sanctions,” she said.
Many analysts say Beijing in particular is looking on as it formulates its own plans to reunify Taiwan with mainland China. The fear is that if Russia is allowed to invade Ukraine unresisted, that might act as a signal to other leaders that the days of Western powers intervening in other conflicts are over. Western powers are acutely aware this crisis is being closely watched by the rest of the world.


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