Notes

No Time to Go Wobbly: Why Britain Is Lobbying U S. Republicans on Ukraine The New York Times
“A humanitarian crisis is unfolding before our eyes, leaving thousands dead, forcing millions of refugees to flee their homes and threatening an economic recovery that was under way after two years of the pandemic,” she said. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied. In response to the invasion, the geopolitical risk index developed by the US Federal Reserve spiked to the highest level since the start of the Iraq war in 2003. But https://click4r.com/posts/g/16484810/ adds that this disruption is "nothing" compared to the ripple effect from rising energy prices. Mr McFadden also said the government "must look again at Labour's proposal for a one-off windfall tax on oil and gas producers to cut household energy bills by up to £600". The UK government is providing a range of economic, humanitarian and defensive military assistance to Ukraine, and is imposing additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus.

A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe. The latest data for January 2022 shows that the UK economy is now stronger than it was before the pandemic. "The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. If gas and electricity prices stay at the current levels, the Resolution Foundation predicts that the energy price cap next winter will be almost £1,000 higher than the elevated level set to be introduced in April (£1,971). In his speech Jon Cunliffe talks about the impact that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had on the UK economy and on UK financial stability.
“Uncertainty is deterring business investment and threatening to curb supply for years to come. At the same time, China’s zero-Covid policy continues to weigh on the global outlook, lowering domestic growth and disrupting global supply chains,” she added. Boone said the OECD had cut its global growth forecast for 2022 from 4.5% to 3%, while inflation in the organisation’s 38 wealthy-country members would average almost 9% – double the forecast in last December’s Economic Outlook.

What are the direct trade links between the UK and Russia?
In talks with Sergei Shogiu, Mr Wallace said he urged dialogue to resolve the crisis in eastern Ukraine. A Russian invasion of Ukraine would have "tragic consequences" for both countries, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has warned his counterpart in Moscow. President Biden's virtual meeting with President Putin earlier this week was a start and will be followed up by more talks with other Nato members.


The Bank of England raised interest rates again in March to try and moderate rising prices. The CEBR predicts that inflation will now peak at 8.7% next quarter and then stay twice as high as expected until the second half of 2023. This means a shopping basket that cost £20 a year ago will cost almost £22 in the next few months. He called for the government to halt a planned National Insurance increase in April. "All sectors grew in January with some industries that were hit particularly hard in December now performing well." All in all, the economy was on course to maintain its return to normal after the pandemic.

Invasion of Ukraine
Many analysts say Beijing in particular is looking on as it formulates its own plans to reunify Taiwan with mainland China. The fear is that if Russia is allowed to invade Ukraine unresisted, that might act as a signal to other leaders that the days of Western powers intervening in other conflicts are over. Western powers are acutely aware this crisis is being closely watched by the rest of the world.

A spate of Ukraine-linked attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure have reportedly led Moscow's energy ministry to propose restricting flights over energy facilities. While a line may now thankfully be drawn under the pandemic's economic hit, the inflationary cloud is now looking very dark indeed. Moscow has claimed its forces have taken control of the village of Tabaivka in Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. "There is no prospect of food shortages at any point in the future, and Defra are working with Treasury to try and make sure that that continues to be the case," he said.
The bounce back in the economy in January was not just stronger than expected, it was also seen in buoyant tax revenues. The economy grew by 0.8% compared with a 0.2% contraction in December the Office for National Statistics said. The UK and our allies condemn the Russian government’s unprovoked and premeditated war against Ukraine. Egypt, China and Turkey import significant portions of these grains and are therefore particularly at risk.


All three lead to higher consumer prices, which will mean a reduction in households’ ‘real’ incomes (that is, adjusted for inflation) and therefore consumption, limiting their economic output (GDP). Ukraine is the world’s second biggest exporter of grains and Russia often tops the ranking for wheat exports. Any disruption to flows would quickly ripple through to buyers globally, raising costs for bread and meat. And while commodity prices tend to be only a small proportion of the price of final food products, UK consumers would be likely to see higher prices on supermarket shelves – this could manifest later this year at a time of already high inflation. Soaring energy costs and supply chain disruption caused by Covid have driven inflation to the highest levels in three decades.

Even with prices falling faster than expected, next winter still looks challenging – and energy is likely to remain front and centre of the political agenda well beyond that. The UK, US and EU also announced sanctions against the Russian Central Bank, which involve freezing its assets held in sterling, dollars and euros. The UK government is providing a range of economic, humanitarian and defensive military assistance to Ukraine, and is imposing additional sanctions on Russia and Belarus. Dan Wallis, who runs Rookery Farms in Newbury, Berkshire, said he decided this week to sow spring wheat on land that was not due to be planted on until next autumn.
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