Notes

What could happen in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024?
Energy supplies and communications networks are cut off. The government is replaced with a pro-Moscow puppet regime. President Zelensky is either assassinated or flees, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up a government in exile. President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control.

Then, only then did the German people find out that the war was lost because Ludendorff had set up a Ministry of Information saying, “We’re gonna win, we’re doing great. We’re gonna win, we’re going to win.” And finally, reality and truth hit him smack in the face that they couldn’t win and they wouldn’t win. What it will take is for the Russians to realise, for the Russian people, that they can’t win this war. There can be a revolt against Putin, which we think is unlikely.


368,000 Ukrainian people had crossed the border into Poland, Moldova and other neighbouring countries. Ukrainians flocked to bomb shelters in Kyiv as missiles struck the city and as Russian tanks took hold just 6 miles from Kyiv’s Parliament and the city centre. Mr Zelensky ordered a mobilisation of all conscripts and reservists in all regions, as Ukrainian males aged 18 to 60 were banned from leaving the country. A number of Russian oligarchs who are believed to have a close relationship with the president, have also criticised the war. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has insisted that a solution to the crisis could be found and a new round of talks were expected to start between Ukrainian and Russian officials.

The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world
If conflicts in places such as Ethiopia, Palestine, Kashmir, Syria, and Yemen have proved anything, it’s that wars are easy to start, but are also brutal, intractable, and difficult to end. The fickle nature of the international media means that protracted conflicts quickly lose the world’s attention, if they ever had it to begin with. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, visited the south-western frontline at Mykolaiv and the nearby city of Odesa on Saturday.

The Russian air force - which has played a low-key role so far - launches devastating airstrikes. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. The ISW does note that Russia's advances might be the result of Ukrainian forces withdrawing to "more defensible positions" near Robotyne. Despite Moscow's "shambolic start to its military campaign, most Western officials and analysts believe Russia will turn to criminal siege tactics and eventually find a way to break through Ukraine's fierce and valiant resistance," Politico's Alex Ward writes. Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control.
Everybody in Britain knows that it started in 1914 and ended in 1918. But one of the interesting things is that in November 1914, there was a Crown Council in Germany with the chancellor, with the Kaiser, William the Last, as I like to refer to him, and the chief of staff where they all agreed they can’t win. What happened there is that they had the Schlieffen Plan.

All that happened this week in Russia-Ukraine war
Putin denied a second wave of mobilization was necessary for now, but in early December he signed a decree ordering the military to increase the number of Russian armed forces personnel by 170,000, bringing the total number of troops to 1.32 million. Russia has shown that it is committed to a long conflict in Ukraine and that it has the capacity to send hundreds of thousands of men to war. Putin claimed in his end-of year news conference that 617,000 troops were currently active in Ukraine. Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.


The prospects for an end of the war in Ukraine remain bleak. Compared with this time last year, Vladimir Putin is stronger, politically more than militarily. President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped. The situation in Ukraine is often fast moving and it is likely there will be times when there have been changes not reflected in the maps. By October 2022, the picture had changed dramatically and having failed to take Kyiv, Russia withdrew completely from the north.

Ukraine war: How long can the Western consensus hold?
Cases of whole Russian units refusing orders and armed standoffs between officers and their troops continue to occur,” the ministry said on Twitter. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war. That said, there wasn't much of a political will for third countries to sanction Cuba at the time. It's possible today's situation with Russia might make such a policy more politically palatable if the U.S. attempted it again, though I can't find any serious proposal in the government to do just that.

It is theoretically possible for the U.S. to sanction countries that maintain economic ties with Russia. Apart from a few exceptions, almost all of the tens of thousands of people who have died in this war have been on Ukrainian territory. Thousands of troops have died, billions of dollars in military hardware wasted and entire cities subjected to relentless bombardment – and more than four months on, Russia’s fierce military campaign in Ukraine continues unabated. On Feb. 24, 2022, Russian forces attacked Ukraine without frozen ground to support their armored vehicles, which meant they had to stick to roads, where they stood out as easy targets. But he says basically if this doesn’t work, try something else.
The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, conceded in an interview that his country had “concentrated our energy supply too much on Russia” to the point that it was not possible to change course “if the worst came to the worst”. But he defended his predecessor Angela Merkel’s policy of seeking good relations with Moscow. Ukraine has been calling for a large influx of western weaponry so that it can try to push back the Russian invaders, but what has been offered so far is less than Kyiv has requested.

Yet one could argue that Putin is more interested in gathering the lands of the Russian empire. That objective has coexisted with an expectation that Putin’s government will probably never stop fighting, as losing the war could spell the end to his political power. Says more than 8 million Ukrainians fled to Europe since the start of the invasion. One concern is it could yet extend to other post-Soviet countries such as Moldova and Georgia, both of which, like Ukraine, have Russian-backed breakaway regions within their respective territories.
After liberating a handful of villages in the summer, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been caught in largely attritional battles, with neither side making significant gains. The second thing to keep in mind here is that you must believe that any deal you make will stick, so there won’t be drastic changes in the future which will give one side an advantage and they will renege on the deal. The thing that is striking is that there is a cap on Ukrainian aims.

In fact, I was alerted to Professor Goemans’ work by a contact who works in the American government, and he was cited as something that his colleagues had been studying as they tried to see how this war might be brought to a close. Ukrainians also make a calculation it’s just worth the cost. By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defences.
Many Russian nationalists, though, perceive Ukraine as a breakaway region of greater Russia. During President Putin's marathon state address on Feb. 21, he accused Western countries of attempting "to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine," making war the only way to "protect the people in our historical lands." From the very beginning of the war, President Putin has drawn parallels between the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II and the current military campaign against supposed "neo-Nazis" in Ukraine.

Volker said that aid packages must include more advanced weaponry for Ukraine, however, like F-16 fighter jets which have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands. NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. For Ukraine, the problem is it's running low on these missiles.
Ukrainian forces were also quick to deploy Western supplied arms such as the Nlaw anti-tank system, which proved highly effective against the Russian advance. https://gilliam-albrechtsen-4.technetbloggers.de/investigating-the-disappearance-of-q13-news-anchor moved in quickly and within a few weeks were in control of large areas of Ukraine and had advanced to the suburbs of Kyiv. Recent assessments by the ISW show Russian forces have made advances north of Bakhmut. However, the ISW says Russia has made confirmed advances near the town and notes that several Russian sources claim its forces are trying to push Ukrainian troops out of positions in the Avdiivka Coke Plant, which occupies a key tactical position.

"You only have to look at the struggle to get the oil embargo," says Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, referring to the tortured weeks of negotiation that resulted in this week's partial EU embargo on Russian oil. Nearly a year later, Russia’s army is no closer to winning the war — and has even lost part of the territory that Putin attempted to annex last September. Russia and Ukraine agreed on the need for humanitarian corridors to deliver aid and help civilians exit besieged Ukrainian cities, marking the first sign of progress since the conflict began. President Zelensky issued a plea to make Ukraine a member of the European Union, whilst the cities of Kharkiv, Kherson and Mariupol were encircled by Russian forces.

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