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But at this point, they are a relatively small number. Democrats in Congress overwhelmingly support aid for Ukraine, and most Republicans do as well. https://anotepad.com/notes/34shmht7 . Congress approved four separate spending bills for Ukraine in the past year totaling $112 billion. The rest is funding the Ukrainian government (this helps pay the salaries of Ukrainian government workers) and humanitarian aid to help the millions of Ukrainians who have been driven from their homes.
Hungary has signalled it is ready to compromise on EU funding for Ukraine - after Brussels reportedly prepared to sabotage its economy if it did not comply. He says Europe is rich enough to do so if it has the political will, pointing to a recent report from the Estonian Ministry of Defence suggesting that committing 0.25% of GDP annually towards Ukraine would provide "more than sufficient resources". Gideon Rachman How do you assess the incentives of the Ukrainians? In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia. For all the anxieties about self-inflicted wounds and the hesitation surrounding the supply of weapons, the Western consensus over Ukraine remains remarkably intact. Last Sunday, Putin ordered Russia’s nuclear forces be put on high alert, after the West imposed a number of crippling sanctions and which he described as taking “unfriendly” steps against his country.
Amid the fog of war, it can be hard to see the way forward. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining? Few can predict the future with confidence, but here are some potential outcomes. Still, it’s an open question whether the U.S. will be able to indefinitely continue its current level of support, said Mark Cancian, a CSIS senior adviser who has studied the volumes of artillery used in the war.
What are the Ukrainian refugees who fled their country doing now? Are they able to get jobs in their host countries? — Laurel
In the end, I think that the Russians are not willing to suffer as many costs as the Ukrainians are. Gideon Rachman How do you assess the incentives of the Ukrainians? I mean, I suppose we hear from them and it’s difficult to dispute it, that they have no incentive to settle because they feel they’re fighting for their freedom and for their statehood. Gideon Rachman I mean, I think, you know, we talk about the first world war, but when you listen to what Putin says, the war that preoccupies him is the second world war. But is one of the complications here that in the nuclear age, that’s just not possible. The country's Western allies have so far offered it major weapons supplies but Ukraine says it has only received a fraction of what it needs to defend itself and is asking for heavier arms.
In fact, the longer the fighting lasts, the more likely it is that Western support will soften, according to Loukopoulos. I don’t see why the Russians would ever accept it, to repeat myself. Meanwhile, Indian thinktank Observer Research Foundation's Russia expert, Nandan Unnikrishnan, said India was unlikely to sign "any major military deal" with Russia because it would cross a red line with the US. “The ultimate end to this is the Ukrainians take back as much pre-Feb. Last week, Ukraine ordered its forces to withdraw from the key city of Severodonetsk, which had been the target of an intense Russian offensive for weeks.
Russian forces are already trying to slow down tanks in Ukraine with mines, trenches, and pyramidical, concrete “dragon’s teeth,” a type of fortification not seen in combat since World War II. Ukrainian forces, once equipped and trained for combined arms warfare and tank tactics, will be “designed to punch a hole through a defensive network,” Donahoe predicted. Also in the mix is a pledge from France to ship AMX-10 RC light, wheeled tanks. In Jensen’s view, even the collapse of Russia’s conventional force or a traditional Ukrainian victory may not mean the war is over; either could lead to nuclear escalation by Russia.
24Ex-teacher displays harrowing photos from Ukraine, published at 06:24Ex-teacher displays harrowing photos from Ukraine
After Russia first invaded in 2014, the U.S. military stepped up training for the Ukrainian military in western Ukraine. U.S. trainers continued working in Ukraine right up until the full-scale Russian invasion a year ago. "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres. President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone. Diplomats say feelers are being stretched out to Moscow.
Russia’s battlefield losses are so huge that western officials doubt it has the capacity to mount an offensive on the same scale again. The challenge now is training and equipping an armored force big enough and sophisticated enough to envelop Russia’s fighting force. The Western military alliance chief said that supplying Ukraine with more modern weapons would increase its chances of being able to liberate the country's eastern Donbas region, much of which is currently under Russian control.
These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. But however this conflict plays out, the world has changed. Russia's relationship with the outside world will be different. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. Perhaps more likely is that this develops into a protracted war.
But even then, the very concept of victory may be inaccurate, they warned. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. Senior officials from around 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the weekend with the aim of agreeing on key principles that could underline a future settlement of the war. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region.
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there was “no use in setting an end date” to what Russia calls “special military operation in Ukraine”, adding that its objective to “liberate” Donbas had not changed. Thousands of troops have died, billions of dollars in military hardware wasted and entire cities subjected to relentless bombardment – and more than four months on, Russia’s fierce military campaign in Ukraine continues unabated. Russian forces continued to surround and attack Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, and the second-biggest city of Kharkiv. Tanks were spotted moving towards the capital, whilst Russian troops seized the city of Melitopol in Ukraine’s south-eastern Zaporizhzhya region. Ukrainian armed forces started to show fierce resistance, thwarting a number of attacks and Russian aircrafts. Hein Goemans Well, Russia’s best hope is breaking up the western support for Ukraine, and that can happen in a variety of ways, right?
With Western hesitancy bolstering Russia, and in the absence of either a coup or a health-related issue leading to Putin's demise, the only foreseeable outcome will be a negotiated settlement that for now both sides continue to refuse. Defense News spoke with national security analysts, lawmakers and retired officials, asking each how the conflict could end. However, the ISW says Russia has made confirmed advances near the town and notes that several Russian sources claim its forces are trying to push Ukrainian troops out of positions in the Avdiivka Coke Plant, which occupies a key tactical position. Ukraine's counteroffensive is likely to make some progress in the remainder of this year, Barrons said — but nowhere near enough to end the occupation. I just told you a story about the nuclear demonstration of just testing a bomb and then scaring the west, Trump getting elected.
This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons. This week, Mr Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert. Most analysts doubt this means their use is likely or imminent. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. And even once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine's cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control.
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