Notes

When will the war in Ukraine end? And 9 more questions about Russia's invasion : NPR
Many prisoners remain in custody months after their initial capture. Russia claimed Ukraine shot the plane down with several missiles. Ukraine has not admitted nor denied responsibility for the attack, calling for an international investigation into the incident. The "Ukrainian side was not informed about the need to ensure the safety of the airspace in the area of the city of Belgorod in a certain period of time, as was repeatedly done in the past," the agency added. Johnson, writing in the Sunday Times, said the supply of weapons had to continue, and that it would be necessary to “preserve the viability of the Ukrainian state” by providing financial support “to pay wages, run schools, deliver aid and begin reconstruction”.


I think that if Zelenskyy made a deal which gave up, you know, the four annexed areas. I think he might also be removed from office, but he’s not gonna be killed, because he is a war hero and he has a lot of credit and it’s very different. Ukrainians also make a calculation it’s just worth the cost. And the Russians are trying to influence that calculation. The Russians are trying to teach the Ukrainians that the war is gonna be very costly by taking out their infrastructure and just punishing of civilians. And on the other hand is the west, which is telling the Russians this war is gonna be too costly because we have sanctions on you and your complete economy will implode.

Weather Alert Issued As 'Pineapple Express' Hurtles Towards US West Coast
But others have responded by "prepping for war" - stocking food and fuel. There is a sense in the upper echelons of the British military that many politicians and most of the public have not grasped the threat they see. It is the duty of the military to analyse that threat, and they still might be proved wrong. But European nations closer to Russian borders appear to be taking it more seriously.


And then the question you’ve got to ask is, what causes those war aims to change? War actually does something that we cannot do in peacetime. It lets you see on the battlefield how strong you really are, how resolved and how strong your opponent is. And in addition, know the attitude and behaviour of potential allies of either side. So one of the basic characteristics of war is that it provides information.

After a year of war in Ukraine, all signs point to more misery with no end in sight
By early summer Ukraine will be able to use US-made F16 fighter jets for the first time, which it hopes will improve its ability to counter Russian aircraft and strengthen its own air defences. Gen Sanders' speech was intended to be a wake-up call for the nation. But without political support, the mindset of a country that does not feel like it is about to go to war is unlikely to change. To train and equip that larger army would inevitably require more money. The government says it wants to spend 2.5% of national income on defence - but has still not said when. He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers.

Last week, another senior Nato military chief said countries needed to be on alert "and expect the unexpected". But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict. And even though the fall of the Soviet Union was notable for its lack of bloodshed, many in Ukraine refer to today's conflict as a true "war of independence." President Putin could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato.
"The nightmare scenario would be that the states close to Russia double down on aid to Ukraine while those farther west decide to force a deal on Putin's terms. Then Europe itself could fracture," he says. A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe. It would not be the first time Russia has employed such a strategy of attrition, turning an active conflict into a frozen one for lack of a better solution. In Syria, where it has been propping up President Bashar al-Assad, Russia has used a cycle of offensives followed by ceasefires to slowly split and crush the opposition. “I am fully convinced that the end of the war is not imminent,” he added, pointing to “one crucial factor”” Russia, he said, has “the political-strategic and operational-tactical initiative, while Ukraine and the Western alliance react”. As Russia’s military campaign grinds on, experts weigh in on the most likely scenarios going forward.

Read more CNBC politics coverage
Russia already controls most of Sievierodonetsk, Haidai said on Sunday morning, and if Ukrainian forces lose the city, fighting is expected to focus on neighbouring Lysychansk, from which 32 residents have been evacuated over the weekend despite heavy shelling. The Western military alliance chief said that supplying Ukraine with more modern weapons would increase its chances of being able to liberate the country's eastern Donbas region, much of which is currently under Russian control. He uses Russia's internal security forces to suppress that opposition. But this turns sour and enough members of Russia's military, political and economic elite turn against him. The West makes clear that if Putin goes and is replaced by a more moderate leader, then Russia will see the lifting of some sanctions and a restoration of normal diplomatic relations.

Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. Russia's defence budget has tripled since 2021 and will consume 30% of government spending next year. As the sun rises on a seventh day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a 40-mile-long Russian military convoy appears stalled about 20 miles north of Kyiv, and the Ukrainian-held cities of Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mariupol are encircled. 24 territory as they can get, force Putin to the bargaining table, and then ultimately Ukraine would have to compromise somewhat on issues like Crimea and portions of the east and arrange for solid security guarantees going forward,” Smith told Defense News in a phone interview. In some ways, Ukraine was already in the midst of a long-running crisis.
Defense experts told CNBC their baseline scenario for 2024 was a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to progress much on the ground and take or reclaim territory. Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told CNBC he believes American and EU aid packages for Ukraine will be approved come January, saying he believed this funding would tide Ukraine over for another year, militarily. Volker said that aid packages must include more advanced weaponry for Ukraine, however, like F-16 fighter jets which have been pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.

We now know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms. Defense analysts argue that neither side would want to go into negotiations unless they're in a position of strength and able to dictate terms. To indicate which parts of Ukraine are under control by Russian troops we are using daily assessments published by the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project. But this winter, they’re expected to launch attacks across open plains, which would be harder to defeat, said Daniel Rice, a former U.S. But it was a reminder that Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
Website: