Notes

Win, lose, stalemate or a shock: how might the Ukraine war end? Ukraine
Never,” United States President Joe Biden said in Poland last week, a day after a previously unannounced visit to Kyiv. Both sides are now digging in as Moscow’s “special military operation”, which was intended to last a matter of days, grinds into another year of attritional warfare. Russia is throwing waves of recruits and mercenaries into close-quarters battles around towns like Bakhmut and Vuhledar. For instance, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, a regional organisation, mediated the negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan, with the contribution of other organisations and experts.

Ukraine is assembling a force of more than 100 western Leopard 1 and 2 tanks, plus others, and a similar number of armoured vehicles that it hopes to use whenever the spring muddy season eases, to smash through Russia’s defensive lines in a D-day offensive. The fourth option – the sole positive one – contemplates Ukraine winning the war and expelling the Russians from its territory. President Putin could seek to regain more parts of Russia's former empire by sending troops into ex-Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato. But clashes have also been taking place around Kyiv and the Black Sea port cities of Odesa and Mariupol. In addition, Ukrainian forces have degraded Russian supply lines and made some territorial gains in Donbas over recent weeks.
In theory, that gives the West influence over the direction of the war. The West could — as Ukraine has sought — supply even more sophisticated weapons, faster, in the hope of convincing Russia that it cannot win. The US and its allies were quick to provide aid that has been vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. To be clear, engaging in negotiations doesn’t imply excusing Russia’s aggression or the perpetration of war crimes. And atrocities against civilians, as revealed by the recently discovered corpses in Bucha, could further decrease the chances for successful talks. International, professional experts on peace mediation could and should be involved in the Russia-Ukraine talks, whether formally or informally.

Ukraine recaptures its territory
Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, surrounding the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Alexei Kulemzin said Ukraine was behind the strike on the eastern Ukrainian city, which is currently under Russian occupation. Previous wars, like the eight-year-long Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, too have hinged on such external assistance. At different times in this conflict Russia has resembled Iran’s position, and Ukraine has mirrored Iraq’s in that war — if only incompletely — said Jeremy Morris, professor of global studies at Aarhus University in Denmark.


Russia has since been focusing its military operations in the south, east and north-east of Ukraine, seizing large areas. Only aircraft deployed to protect energy facilities, or those carrying top Russian or foreign officials, will be allowed to fly with special permission in the designated zones, according to the Vedomosti daily newspaper. US-based thinktank the Institute for the Study of War said it had seen continued reports that Russia had not been able to produce missiles and artillery ammunition at pre-war levels for its own forces to use - making it unlikely to be able to export arms at pre-war levels.

A month after Prigozhin’s suspicious death, the Kremlin is silent on his plane crash and legacy
Blumenthal has joined other lawmakers — particularly pro-Ukraine Republicans — in pushing President Joe Biden to give Zelenskyy most of the weapons he requested, including long-range ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighter aircraft. The United States, as Ukraine’s most important military supporter, remains the center of gravity when it comes to an eventual outcome for the conflict. American leadership has so far been largely united in their support for Kyiv. And the near-total control of information by the government is making dissent difficult. “Those who are against the war have left, and those who remain are adapting,” Meister said.


About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. A man was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. Russia's defence ministry has denied attacking Ukrainian cities - saying it was targeting military infrastructure, air defence and air forces with "high-precision weapons". The EU has even taken the unusual step of getting out in front of the United States, with Germany unilaterally suspending its Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline with Russia and the bloc moving first on stronger financial sanctions against Moscow. Most importantly, Germany, having discarded its pacifist posture, is now re-militarizing as its assumptions crumble about Russia’s intentions and the power of economic ties to reshape geopolitics.

Moscow snatches victory
A day of mourning has been declared Monday for the victims of Sunday's shelling of a marketplace in the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk. "We believe the plant is likely to return to significant capacity within weeks or, at worst, months," analysts at Moscow-based BCS brokerage said in a note. At least 25 people died in the attack on the market in Donetsk city, while 20 others were injured.

He agreed to a House rules change that would allow any member to initiate a vote to remove him as speaker, forcing him to tread carefully even on issues that enjoy majority Republican support — such as Ukraine assistance. The US defence aid package is held hostage by what President Biden rightly labelled "petty politics" in Washington. While Russia has occupied swathes of territory in the south and east of the country, Ukraine has put up a stronger fight than anyone expected and often humiliated Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion forces that, on paper, were meant to overwhelm Ukraine in days. Peace mediators don’t necessarily have to be perfectly neutral and unbiased.
In addition, Ukrainian forces have degraded Russian supply lines and made some territorial gains in Donbas over recent weeks. Ukraine’s military successes are not only a consequence of the country’s soldiers’ skills and determination but also of the support it has received from its western partners. The US, EU, and UK have all assured Ukraine that they will continue to stand with the country. Areas in the west of the country, including Lviv, have experienced missile attacks, but no attempt by Russian forces to take and occupy ground.


However, Mr Orban's political director said this morning that Hungary was open to using the EU budget to allow further aid for Ukraine. https://notes.io/wf8Vr has been highly critical of the EU's financial and military aid for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russia. "A frank and constructive dialogue is expected to improve relations between states," the Ukrainian president's office said on its official channel on the Telegram messaging app alongside a photo of Mr Szijjarto, Mr Kuleba and Mr Yermak. Hungary previously said it would block further financial aid to Ukraine, but this morning suggested it was ready to compromise after the EU reportedly drew up plans to hit Budapest's economy.

"The Ust-Luga Oil terminal in the Leningrad region is an important facility for the enemy. Fuel is refined there, which, among other things, is also supplied to Russian troops," it cited one source as saying. While Ukrainian forces still have momentum, Russia currently controls about 18 per cent of Ukraine, including much of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, as well as Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014. In the “brave new world” scenario, however, the prospect of World War III persuades China to intervene and bring Putin to his senses, laying the groundwork for a durable peace settlement between the West and Russia. The leaders also discussed "the possibilities of joint future arms production," Zelenskyy said.
During his visit to the US in December, Zelensky was able to obtain an additional US$1.85 billion (£1.5 billion) security assistance package. Critically, this includes a Patriot air defence system – something Ukraine has long coveted. This might then also pave the way for other allies to deliver such weapons to Ukraine.

The current outlook for a negotiated deal would likely involve Ukraine ceding some territory to Russia, analysts say. In theory, that gives the West influence over the direction of the war. "We mourn those who died at the hands of Ukrainian terrorists as a result of yesterday's shelling," he said. Now the U.S. and European militaries are training Ukrainian forces in Europe. Ukraine's position between Russia to the east and countries such as Poland and Romania to the west means it straddles both the European and Russian spheres of influence.
Homepage: https://notes.io/wf8Vr