Notes

Ukraine war: Countdown has begun to end of Putin, say Kyiv officials
So, in recent years, Ukrainians have reached further into their history to argue that Ukrainian independence existed before the fall of the Soviet Union, or even the Russian Empire before it. Russian Communist supporters hold flags including one of the Soviet Union, as they take part in a rally next to the Karl Marx monument, marking the "Defender of the Fatherland Day," the former "Day of the Soviet Army", in downtown Moscow on Feb. 23. The money Congress has already approved will help cover Ukraine's needs for the next several months. But at some point later this year, President Biden is certain to seek more money for Ukraine, and we'll see how the Republicans in the House respond.

This means that the willingness of the general population to suffer in the face of high costs is of the utmost importance. When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable. By the end of March, Russia had lost tanks and aircraft worth an estimated $5 billion, not to speak of up to a quarter of the troops it had sent into battle. The move “would also put Crimea at risk and then potentially we could see a collapse of Russian forces and effectively Ukraine could win,” he said. Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory.
Joe Gould was the senior Pentagon reporter for Defense News, covering the intersection of national security policy, politics and the defense industry. The United States, as Ukraine’s most important military supporter, remains the center of gravity when it comes to an eventual outcome for the conflict. American leadership has so far been largely united in their support for Kyiv. Retired Maj. Gen. Patrick Donahoe, a former commander of the U.S. Army’s maneuver warfare school at Fort Benning, Georgia, said Western upgrades offer Ukraine the chance to dominate the close fight with Russian adversaries and conclude the tactical fighting to its advantage.

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 704
Military experts warn that this means the war is likely to be prolonged, putting immense pressure on Ukraine to fight for several more years to come, potentially, and on its international partners to commit billions of dollars more in military, humanitarian and financial resources. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive - some of each could combine to produce different outcomes. Russia's relationship with the outside world will be different. And the liberal, international rules-based order might just have rediscovered what it was for in the first place. He was not making a case for conscription or for an imminent call up of volunteers. Instead, he was urging Britain to prepare for a mass mobilisation of tens of thousands of people, should war break out.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been highly critical of the EU's financial and military aid for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russia. The invasion has been a disaster for President Vladimir Putin and in order to justify it at home he at least has to take control of Ukraine's Donbas region, after which he can falsely claim that the army saved Russian citizens persecuted by Ukraine. The drama over the border in Russia has hardened the view in Kyiv that Mr Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end. European countries have largely outsourced much of their military capacity and thinking on strategy and security to the States through NATO.
No one can know for sure whether Europe and the United States are headed for a recession, but many economists and business leaders consider it likely. They’ve just begun to feel the economic blowback from the war and the sanctions imposed on Russia, pain that will only increase. While https://www.openlearning.com/u/michaelsenbishop-s2dhzs/blog/WhoPlaysGramOnGreatNews have indeed hurt Russia, they’ve also contributed to skyrocketing energy and food prices in the West (even as Putin profits by selling his oil, gas, and coal at higher prices). The US inflation rate, at 8.6 percent last month, is the highest in 40 years, while the Congressional Budget Office has revised estimates of economic growth—3.1 percent this year— down to 2.2 percent for 2023 and 1.5 percent for 2024. All this as mid-term elections loom and President Biden’s approval ratings, now at 39.7 percent, continue to sink.

Biden says he'll back Ukraine as long as it takes. But some take aim at the price tag
That would require planning and a change of mindset in government. Following the UK Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine on 12 January, the United Kingdom has committed to an increased package of support amounting to £2.5Bn next financial year and signed an historic security agreement to provide Ukraine with the assurances it needs for the long term. As a consequence of this package, the United Kingdom has provided Ukraine with close to £12Bn of military, economic and humanitarian support in a clear signal of our unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine has fought with great courage to defend their country and defend the principles of freedom and democracy.

That alone could offer some hope that a diminished Russia would be forced to withdraw or, alternatively, that Ukraine would be in a better position to win the war in the future. Earlier today, a Russian official said air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the city of Yaroslavl. This has forced the Central Bank of Russia to double interest rates to 16% since July 2023.
Some Ukrainian experts fear a pincer movement to encircle Donbas and the east from Sumy in the north and Velyka Novosilka in the south, allowing Russia to occupy most of the four Ukrainian provinces it has unilaterally claimed to have annexed. At this point, Russia could call for a ceasefire to retain what it has, and run a defensive campaign to consolidate its battered military. Ukraine’s war reaches the one-year mark with no immediate end in sight. Both sides want to carry on fighting, and any negotiated peace looks a long way off.


Carl-Oskar Bohlin asked the public "have you considered whether you have time to join a voluntary defence organisation? If not - get moving!" His remarks were backed up by the country's top military commander, who said Sweden should prepare itself mentally. Last week, another senior Nato military chief said countries needed to be on alert "and expect the unexpected". Adm Rob Bauer, who heads the alliance's military committee, said the public needed to change their mindset for an era "when anything can happen at any time". Wars require the tacit approval and support of those on the home front. Regardless of a country’s government style, a leader is still dependent upon the support of a group of people, or coalition, to stay in power. Vladimir Putin depends on oligarchs, the Russian mafia and the military for his survival.


“If leaders explain the stakes and the costs, this is a manageable burden,” he told me. But the uncertainty surrounding President Putin and his regime, almost a year and a half into a disastrous war and after the Wagner drama, might feed the anxiety of those Nato countries who would prefer the war to end around the negotiating table, not on the battlefield. Senior Ukrainians are still doing their best to manage expectations about the summer offensive. They believe some of their Western allies, as well as supporters in the media, have become over-excited about Ukraine's army and its Nato equipment. It is clear to the most dispassionate observer of the war that Ukraine is having to fight very hard, and take casualties in troops and equipment, including the armour supplied by Nato. It started, they said, with his disastrous decision to mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year.


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