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Prediction of the dynamics of new SARS-CoV-2 infections during the current COVID-19 pandemic is critical for public health planning of efficient health care allocation and monitoring the effects of policy interventions. We describe a new approach that forecasts the number of incident cases in the near future given past occurrences using only a small number of assumptions.
Our approach to forecasting future COVID-19 cases involves 1) modeling the observed incidence cases using a Poisson distribution for the daily incidence number, and a gamma distribution for the series interval; 2) estimating the effective reproduction number assuming its value stays constant during a short time interval; and 3) drawing future incidence cases from their posterior distributions, assuming that the current transmission rate will stay the same, or change by a certain degree.
We apply our method to predicting the number of new COVID-19 cases in a single state in the U.S. and for a subset of counties within the state to demonstrate the utility of this method at varying scales of prediction. Our method produces reasonably accurate results when the effective reproduction number is distributed similarly in the future as in the past. Large deviations from the predicted results can imply that a change in policy or some other factors have occurred that have dramatically altered the disease transmission over time.
We presented a modelling approach that we believe can be easily adopted by others, and immediately useful for local or state planning.
We presented a modelling approach that we believe can be easily adopted by others, and immediately useful for local or state planning.
We used nationwide population-based data to identify optimal hospital and surgeon volume thresholds and to discover the effects of these volume thresholds on operative mortality and length of stay (LOS) for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG).
Retrospective cohort study.
General acute care hospitals throughout Taiwan.
A total of 12,892 CABG patients admitted between 2011 and 2015 were extracted from Taiwan National Health Insurance claims data.
Operative mortality and LOS. Restricted cubic splines were applied to discover the optimal hospital and surgeon volume thresholds needed to reduce operative mortality. Generalized estimating equation regression modeling, Cox proportional-hazards modeling and instrumental variables analysis were employed to examine the effects of hospital and surgeon volume thresholds on the operative mortality and LOS.
The volume thresholds for hospitals and surgeons were 55 cases and 5 cases per year, respectively. Patients who underwent CABG from hospitals that did not reach the volume threshold had higher operative mortality than those who received CABG from hospitals that did reach the volume threshold. learn more Patients who underwent CABG with surgeons who did not reach the volume threshold had higher operative mortality and LOS than those who underwent CABG with surgeons who did reach the volume threshold.
This is the first study to identify the optimal hospital and surgeon volume thresholds for reducing operative mortality and LOS. This supports policies regionalizing CABG at high-volume hospitals. Identifying volume thresholds could help patients, providers, and policymakers provide optimal care.
This is the first study to identify the optimal hospital and surgeon volume thresholds for reducing operative mortality and LOS. This supports policies regionalizing CABG at high-volume hospitals. Identifying volume thresholds could help patients, providers, and policymakers provide optimal care.Prior studies have demonstrated the utility of microRNA assays for predicting some cancer tissue origins, but these assays need to be further optimized for predicting the tissue origins of adenocarcinomas of the liver. We performed microRNA profiling on 195 frozen primary tumor samples using 14 types of tumors that were either adenocarcinomas or differentiated from adenocarcinomas. The 1-nearest neighbor method predicted tissue-of-origin in 33 samples of a test set, with an accuracy of 93.9% at feature selection p values ranging from 10-4 to 10-10. According to binary decision tree analyses, the overexpression of miR-30a and the underexpression of miR-200 family members (miR-200c and miR-141) differentiated intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas from extrahepatic adenocarcinomas. When binary decision tree analyses were performed using the test set, the prediction accuracy was 84.8%. The overexpression of miR-30a and the reduced expressions of miR-200c, miR-141, and miR-425 could distinguish intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas from liver metastases from the gastrointestinal tract.While the world awaits a widely available COVID-19 vaccine, availability of testing is limited in many regions and can be further compounded by shortages of reagents, prolonged processing time and delayed results. One approach to rapid testing is to leverage the volatile organic compound (VOC) signature of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Detection dogs, a biological sensor of VOCs, were utilized to investigate whether SARS-CoV-2 positive urine and saliva patient samples had a unique odor signature. The virus was inactivated in all training samples with either detergent or heat treatment. Using detergent-inactivated urine samples, dogs were initially trained to find samples collected from hospitalized patients confirmed with SARS-CoV-2 infection, while ignoring samples collected from controls. Dogs were then tested on their ability to spontaneously recognize heat-treated urine samples as well as heat-treated saliva from hospitalized SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. Dogs successfully discriminated between infected and uninfected urine samples, regardless of the inactivation protocol, as well as heat-treated saliva samples. Generalization to novel samples was limited, particularly after intensive training with a restricted sample set. A unique odor associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection present in human urine as well as saliva, provides impetus for the development of odor-based screening, either by electronic, chemical, or biological sensing methods. The use of dogs for screening in an operational setting will require training with a large number of novel SARS-CoV-2 positive and confirmed negative samples.
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