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The novel coronavirus infection has become a global threat affecting almost every country in the world. As a result, it has become important to understand the disease trends in order to mitigate its effects. The aim of this study is firstly to develop a prediction model for daily confirmed COVID-19 cases based on several covariates, and secondly, to select the best prediction model based on a subset of these covariates.
This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).
The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.
This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.
This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.The COVID-19 pandemic has created new challenges on multiple fronts including a few ethical concerns. find more Timely and appropriate access to health services and the need to protect vulnerable people are some of them. An important aspect to consider, at the global level, is the frailty of health systems in many developing countries and the constant threat of these collapsing due to shortage of resources and medical supply. Special attention should be placed towards protecting the health of care workers who are highly exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Research and clinical trials involving COVID-19 patients and healthy human volunteers must be done in strict adherence to the fundamental principles of bioethics, even if finding a solution is an urgent need. Shared responsibility must be assumed as we collectively face a common problem and ethical conflicts must be resolved using, as reference, the guidelines developed by the World Health Organization and other relevant international and national organizations. This would allow responsible action in the face of the pandemic without harming human rights, the individual and collective well-being.
COVID-19 has become a global health security issue, it has caused more than half a million deaths worldwide so far, the treatment strategies are the most concerned issues for clinicians. In this study, the treatments and outcomes in 40 pediatric patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and treated with different drugs were evaluated.
All cases were diagnosed with COVID-19 nucleic acid positive by using RT-PCR or clinical manifestations, imaging specific characteristics and epidemiological clinical diagnosis. The biological information and first symptom of all cases were collect. A variety of treatments were employed and the outcomes were evaluated by Cox regression analysis. Multivariable analysis was performed to evaluate cure rate at 14 days with different drug treatment.
The average length of hospital stay was 10.4 days. The cure rate was increased with the treatment time extended and 90% of pediatric patients were cured and discharged after 14 days' treatment. And multivariable analysis results proved that none of the covariates were related to the cure rate at 14 days with different drug treatment since p values were over 0.05.
Multivariable analysis suggested that the present drug treatments cannot significantly shorten the clinical cure time and improve the cure rate of children with COVID-19.
Multivariable analysis suggested that the present drug treatments cannot significantly shorten the clinical cure time and improve the cure rate of children with COVID-19.Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) represents a severe global public health threat. Caused by SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19 is characterized by high transmission rate that correlates with high viral load. The full clinical spectrum of the illness, the prevalence rates of mild symptomatic and asymptomatic cases, and the case fatality rates are still poorly understood, highlighting the importance of early preventive measures. Unfortunately, appropriate vaccination against SARS-Cov-2 is not yet available. Unless a target vaccine is developed, COVID-19 impacts will be devastating. "Trained immunity" (TI), which could be induced by live attenuated vaccines (LAVs), is a potential public health preventive approach to boost the host immune system. Trained innate immune cells demonstrated phenotypical and functional changes leading them to acquire immunological memory and amplify their responses against subsequent infections. This phenomenon could have important public health preventive implications by harnessing the early immune responses against COVID-19, restricting its progression, and suppressing its infectivity. Some LAVs have induced a broad, nonspecific, protection against unrelated pathogens and decreased mortality from conditions other than the targeted infectious diseases. This review summarizes the relevant literature and 1) emphasizes the role of available LAVs as potential stimulants for TI and 2) proposes this phenomenon as a potential preventive approach against COVID-19 that needs thoughtful consideration and further investigation. Clinical trials in this field are then urgently needed in line of vaccine and treatment unavailability. This is specifically true when considering two evolving scenarios; the virus spread may not diminish with warm weather, and that it will erupt a second-hit severe outbreak next winter.
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