Notes

Expanded Kalman filtration determined by stochastic epidemiological product regarding COVID-19 acting.
Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19. This modeling study simulated the comparative and joint impact of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage with and without non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on total infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.

An agent-based simulation model was employed to estimate incident SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19-associated hospitalizations and deaths over 18 months for the State of North Carolina, a population of roughly 10.5 million. Vaccine efficacy of 50% and 90% and vaccine coverage of 25%, 50%, and 75% (at the end of a 6-month distribution period) were evaluated. Six vaccination scenarios were simulated with NPIs (i.e., reduced mobility, school closings, face mask usage) maintained and removed during the period of vaccine distribution.

In the worst-case vaccination scenario (50% efficacy and 25% coverage), 2,231,134 new SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred with NPIs removed as can be resumed.
Simulation results suggest that premature lifting of NPIs while vaccines are distributed may result in substantial increases in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. Furthermore, as NPIs are removed, higher vaccination coverage with less efficacious vaccines can contribute to a larger reduction in risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to more efficacious vaccines at lower coverage. Our findings highlight the need for well-resourced and coordinated efforts to achieve high vaccine coverage and continued adherence to NPIs before many pre-pandemic activities can be resumed.
The role of favipiravir as a treatment for COVID-19 is unclear, with discrepant activity against SARS-CoV-2
, concerns about teratogenicity and pill burden, and an unknown optimal dose. In Vero-E6 cells, high concentrations are needed to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication. The purpose of this analysis was to use available data to simulate intracellular pharmacokinetics of favipiravir ribofuranosyl-5⍰-triphosphate (FAVI-RTP) to better understand the putative applicability as a COVID-19 intervention.

Previously published
data for the intracellular production and elimination of FAVI- RTP in MDCK cells incubated with parent favipiravir was fitted with a mathematical model to describe the time course of intracellular FAVI-RTP concentrations as a function of incubation concentration of parent favipiravir. Parameter estimates from this model fitting were then combined with a previously published population PK model for the plasma exposure of parent favipiravir in Chinese patients with severe influenza (the mod maintain the Km for the SARS-CoV-2 polymerase for 3 days following 800 mg BID dosing and 9 days following 1200 mg BID dosing after a 1600 mg BID loading dose on day 1. Further evaluation of favipiravir as part of antiviral combinations for SARS-CoV-2 is warranted.
This modelling approach has several important limitations that are discussed in the main text of the manuscript. However, the simulations indicate that despite rapid clearance of the parent drug from plasma, sufficient intracellular FAVI-RTP may be maintained across the dosing interval because of its long intracellular half-life. Population average intracellular FAVI-RTP concentrations are estimated to maintain the Km for the SARS-CoV-2 polymerase for 3 days following 800 mg BID dosing and 9 days following 1200 mg BID dosing after a 1600 mg BID loading dose on day 1. Further evaluation of favipiravir as part of antiviral combinations for SARS-CoV-2 is warranted.
An unproven "nicotine hypothesis" that indicates nicotine's therapeutic potential for COVID-19 has been proposed in recent literature. selleck chemicals llc This study is about Twitter posts that misinterpret this hypothesis to make baseless claims about benefits of smoking and vaping in the context of COVID-19. We quantify the presence of such misinformation and characterize the tweeters who post such messages.

Twitter premium API was used to download tweets (n = 17,533) that match terms indicating (a) nicotine or vaping themes, (b) a prophylactic or therapeutic effect,
(c) COVID-19 (January-July 2020) as a conjunctive query. A constraint on the length of the span of text containing the terms in the tweets allowed us to focus on those that convey the therapeutic intent. We hand-annotated these filtered tweets and built a classifier that identifies tweets that extrapolate the nicotine hypothesis to smoking/vaping with a positive predictive value of 85%. We analyzed the frequently used terms in author bios, top Web links, anconfirmation bias when exposed to inadvertent or deliberate framing of scientific discourse that may border on misinformation. This calls for circumspection and additional planning in countering such narratives as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage our world. Our results also serve as a cautionary tale in how social media can be leveraged to spread misleading information about tobacco products in the wake of pandemics.There has been a markedly renewed interest in factors associated with pneumonia, a leading cause of death worldwide, due to its frequent concurrence with pandemics of influenza and Covid-19 disease. Reported predisposing factors to both bacterial pneumonia and pandemic viral lower respiratory infections are wintertime occurrence, older age, obesity, pre-existing cardiopulmonary conditions and diabetes. Also implicated are age-related neurodegenerative diseases that cause parkinsonism and dementia. We investigated the prevalence of autopsy-proven pneumonia in the Arizona Study of Aging and Neurodegenerative Disorders (AZSAND), a longitudinal clinicopathological study, between the years 2006 and 2019 and before the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Of 691 subjects dying at advanced ages (mean 83.4), pneumonia was diagnosed postmortem in 343 (49.6%). There were 185 subjects without dementia or parkinsonism while clinicopathological diagnoses for the other subjects included 319 with Alzheimer's disease dementia, 127 with idiopathic Parkinson's disease, 72 with dementia with Lewy bodies, 49 with progressive supranuclear palsy and 78 with vascular dementia. Subjects with one or more of these neurodegenerative diseases all had higher pneumonia rates, ranging between 50 and 61%, as compared to those without dementia or parkinsonism (40%). In multivariable logistic regression models, male sex and a non-summer death both had independent contributions (ORs of 1.67 and 1.53) towards the presence of pneumonia at autopsy while the absence of parkinsonism or dementia was a significant negative predictor of pneumonia (OR 0.54). Male sex, dementia and parkinsonism may also be risk factors for Covid-19 pneumonia. The apolipoprotein E4 allele, as well as obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertension, congestive heart failure, cardiomegaly and cigarette smoking history, were not significantly associated with pneumonia, in contradistinction to what has been reported for Covid-19 disease.
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