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Mobility and the adoption of personal protective measures greatly influence the dynamics of the infection, determining either a huge and rapid secondary epidemic peak or a more delayed and manageable one.
mathematical models can provide useful insights for healthcare decision makers to determine the best strategy in case of future outbreaks.
mathematical models can provide useful insights for healthcare decision makers to determine the best strategy in case of future outbreaks.
to investigate the role of gender, age, province of residence, and nursing home residency on the risk of death for residents in the Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) Region (Northern Italy) tested positive for Covid-19, considering recovery as a competing event. The secondary objective is to describe the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic in FVG and in the Regions of Northern and Central Italy in terms of incidence and mortality compared to the national data.
retrospective cohort study.
resident population in FVG in the period between 29 February and 25 June 2020.
in order to describe the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak in FVG, in terms of incidence and mortality compared to the national data, the standardized incidence (SIR) and mortality (SMR) ratios and their respective 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) were calculated compared to the Italian population for the northern and central Regions of Italy and the autonomous Provinces (PA) of Trento and Bolzano. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on subjectshile other Northern Regions and autonomous Provinces show higher standardized incidence and mortality compared with Italy, FVG and Veneto do not. In FVG, male gender and age are important determinants of death while there is no evidence that the condition of guest in a nursing home increases the sub-hazard of death.
while other Northern Regions and autonomous Provinces show higher standardized incidence and mortality compared with Italy, FVG and Veneto do not. In FVG, male gender and age are important determinants of death while there is no evidence that the condition of guest in a nursing home increases the sub-hazard of death.
about two months after the end of the lockdown imposed for the containment of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, the contagion dynamics in the Tuscany Region (Central Italy) have been assessed from the beginning of the emergency to the end of June through a compartmental model, and future medium-long term projections have been produced.
this study used a SIRD model in which the infection reproduction number R0 varied over time, according to a piecewise constant function. The fatality parameter and the time from contagion to infection resolution (death or recovery) were fixed to ensure parameter identifiability, and the model was calibrated on the Covid-19 deaths notified from March 9th to June 30th 2020. The uncertainty around the estimates was quantified through parametric bootstrap. Finally, the resulting model was used to produce medium-long term projections of the epidemic dynamics.
the date of the first infection in Tuscany was estimated as February 21st 2020. selleck The value of R0(t) ranged from 7.78 (95%CI 7.55-e containment measures. Medium-long term projections unequivocally indicate that the danger of a new epidemic wave has not been averted.
ethics committees (ECs) protect the rights, safety, and well-being of research participants and ensure the scientific correctness of clinical research. COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown from 9 March to 16 May 2020 have potentially influenced several activities, including ECs.
to assess the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on Italian ECs and their performance during the lockdown.
cross-sectional survey.
the survey was conducted in mid-June 2020 in Italy contacting all the 90 local ECs.
amount and kind of activities performed during the lockdown, characteristics of submitted studies and adoption of standard protocols of evaluation of research applications during the pandemic. Chi-square test was used to estimate the differences between territories with higher incidence (HI) and lower incidence (LI) of COVID-19.
258 questionnaires were collected from 46 ECs that participated in the study. Ten were excluded due to missing substantial data. Responses were divided into two groups according to location of ECer with the emergency experienced during the lockdown may have exposed ECs to the risk of decreasing the adoption of ethical principles and standard protocols of evaluation of research applications.
to describe the organisation and the role of the Department of Prevention of the Local Health Unit (APSS) of Trento (Trentino-Alto Adige Region, Northern Italy) against the spread of COVID-19 in the population, in the management of possible cases (with only clinical criteria of influenza-like illness, ILI, without diagnostic swab) reported by General practitioners (GPs) and by Family paediatricians (FPs) during the initial phase of the pandemic COVID-19 in Trentino-Alto Adige Region.
descriptive study.
this study analysed the reports of patients with ILI sent to the Healthcare company from 17 March to 17 April 2020 by their GPs or FP and subsequently classified into redundant reports (people already known to the healthcare company as confirmed or probable case COVID-19); reports inconsistent with ILI criteria (patients not known to APSS as probable/confirmed case; without ILI criteria); appropriate reports (patients not known to APSS as probable/confirmed case; with ILI criteria).
proportion of GPs anl, especially in relation to the exit from phase 1 and phase 2 of the pandemic emergency.
to describe the epidemic trends of COVID-19 over time and by area in the territory covered by Milan's Agency for Health Protection (ATS-MI) from February to May 2020.
descriptive study of COVID-19 cases.
a new information system was developed to record COVID-19 cases with positive nasopharyngeal swab. Patients resident in the area covered by ATS-MI with symptom onset between February and May 2020 were selected. Different epidemic periods were considered based on the timeline of the various regional and national containment measures.
case fatality ratios, incidence rates, and reproduction number by epidemic period and sub-area of ATS-MI.
a total of 27,017 swab-positive COVID-19 cases were included. Mean age was 65 years and males were 45%. Incidence in the ATS-MI area was 776 per 100,000 population. The number of deaths was 4,660, the crude case fatality ratio was 17.3%, higher in males (21.2%) than in females (14.0%). The estimated reproduction number registered its peak (3.0) in the early stages of the epidemic and subsequently decreased.
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