Notes

Good Wednesday morning everyone. We have now made it to the halfway point in the work week and the threat for more strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall continues and will continue through weeks end. Lets take a look at the top weather headlines. Flash flooding and severe weather are expected to impact the Central and Eastern portions of the U.S. today and over the next few days. Very hot weather will make a return to the Deserts in the Southwest portion of the U.S. by later in the week and into the weekend. Some of the hottest temperatures could reach 115° to 120° degrees and break some records across the region.

Scattered showers and storms will persist through the end of the week spanning from the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. An upper level low moving across the Great Lakes today will reach the Mid Atlantic by Thursday. Warm, moist and unstable air ahead of the approaching low will allow for the development and continuation of convection. Some of these storms will have the potential to become severe across Wisconsin and the Ohio valley today, therefore the Storm Predictions Center has highlighted these locations as having a slight risk.

Additionally, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding and the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted an excessive rainfall outlook for portions of the Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia on Thursday. For today, portions of the Southeast could see excessive rainfall. The area of increased threat for severe storms will shift over the central Appalachians and surrounding areas on Thursday. Coastal areas in the Mid Atlantic will continue to have an elevated risk for heavy rain. Rainfall amounts across the Northern Mid Atlantic are forecast to be 1" to 2" inches through Saturday morning, with localized higher amounts possible.

Daytime heating, combined with a moist and unstable air mass, will keep ongoing scattered convection across the Southeast. Rain amounts will of 1" to 2" inches are expected through the end of work week. Light to moderate rain is forecast for the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West as an upper level low slowly moves South and East. I can imagine that people living in the Desert Southwest are hoping for some rainfall, anything to help with the extreme heat on it's way. Strengthening high pressure later this week will lead to very hot temperatures this coming weekend and early next week across the Lower Deserts in the Southwest.

A noticeable rise in temps begins Friday but temps really jump over the weekend, climbing well above normal on Saturday and several degrees hotter yet from Sunday through next Tuesday, reaching 115° to 120° degrees across the Deserts each day! This would set new records Sunday and Monday across many locations. If you must be outside during the peak heat of the day, remember to stay hydrated! Drink before you get thirsty, limit your time outside/exposure to the sun, use your air conditioner or seek out public locations that provide A/C like libraries, public malls, and cooling centers. Find a cooling center or hydration station near you at http://coolme.today

Please stay hydrated if you plan to of have to be outdoors. Take extra water with you wherever you go. Make sure you take regular breaks from the heat in a building with A/C. Wear protective and loose fitting clothing. Hat and sunglasses can protect your head, face and eyes. Please wear sunscreen as it will protect your skin from the suns harmful rays. Last but not least, never ever for any reason leave pets or children in a vehicle unattended for any amount of time. There is no excuse and nothing that important. If you can't take your pet wherever you go then leave them home. As for children, pay attention and don't be so distracted!

SEVERE

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe storms over portions of Wisconsin, from the Ohio to Middle Mississippi Valley and across parts of Eastern Montana and extreme Northwest North Dakota. There is a marginal risk of severe storms from the Eastern states to the Southern Plains as well as across portions of the Northern Rockies. Isolated to widely scattered severe storms are expected this afternoon into early evening across Wisconsin and the Ohio Valley states. Isolated severe hail may develop over Eastern Montana tonight. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out across parts of Wisconsin.

If severe storms are forecast in or near your area, you need to be prepared and be very weather aware while taking the necessary precautions to remain safe. Make sure you have some way of receiving weather alerts like a NOAA weather radio. If you do not have a weather radio then you can download a NOAA weather radio app on your smartphone. You should always be ready to take shelter in the event a warning is issued for your area and make sure you have a safety plan and safety kit in place. No matter what the risk category is, you should treat it as serious as any other since any severe storm can be just as dangerous as the last. All it takes is one storm to ruin everything!

Keep in mind that some of the severe weather will occur during the evening hours. The potential for severe storms after dark really increases the danger level and therefore anyone living in these areas should remain alert at all times. If you have to, leave your weather radio on, leave your television on and or have your cell phone next to you in the event that a warning is issued for your area. Once it gets dark, you can’t see a tornado or dark ominous clouds and by the time you’re aware it’s there, it could be too late. This is why I cannot stress enough how important it is to be prepared at all times.

The current outlook you see here will be updated later and will definitely change, therefore you should go to http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ for the latest outlooks. As I mentioned earlier, the risk for severe storms continues tomorrow and over the next several days. The Plains is the focus for the severe storms through this weekend into Monday. Many storms will likely develop during the afternoon and evening hours and even some at night. As I mentioned earlier, severe storms are possible through the entire week ahead so please stay updated each day by visiting the Storm Prediction Center for the latest.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH: A severe thunderstorm watch means that the potential exists for the development of thunderstorms which may produce large hail or damaging winds. When a watch is issued, you should go about your normal activities, but keep an eye to the sky and an ear to the National Weather Service’s weather radio or local radio and television stations for further updates and possible warnings.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING:A severe thunderstorm warning, on the other hand, means that a severe thunderstorm is occurring or is imminent based on doppler radar information. You should move indoors to a place of safety. Schools should think about delaying departure of buses, and should take quick action to delay outdoor sports activities, etc. The term severe refers to hail that is quarter size, 1″ in diameter or larger, and/or wind gusts to 58 mph or more.

Although lightning can be deadly it is not a criterion for what the National Weather Service defines as severe since any ordinary thunderstorm can produce a lot of lightning. Also, excessive rainfall may lead to flash flooding, but heavy rain is not a criterion for the term severe. Severe strictly refers to hail at least 3/4 of an inch in diameter or wind gusts of at least 58 mph. If hail golf ball size or larger is falling, it indicates that a storm is very well organized and likely has a rotating updraft. Any storm producing giant hail should be watched closely for signs of a possible tornado.

TORNADO WATCH: A tornado watch, like a severe thunderstorm watch, means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms to form, but it also means that a few storms may be capable of producing a tornado.

TORNADO WARNING: A tornado warning is the ultimate in severe warnings, it means that a tornado is either occurring or imminent based on radar. You should take cover immediately.

FLASH FLOODING

Please make sure you're alert and prepared if you live in a region or area at risk for heavy rainfall today. Parts of the Southeast states have the best chance for heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk for excessive rainfall across these areas. By Thursday, parts f the Northern Mid Atlantic will have a good chance of heavy rainfall and therefore flash flooding may occur. The WPC has issued a slight risk for excessive rainfall for this region tomorrow. Just as you would during severe storms, always have a way to receive weather alerts so that when a warning is issued, you can take action and stay safe. Please make sure you pay close attention to the weather today and be ready to take shelter or move to higher ground if needed.

FLOOD WARNING & FLASH FLOOD WARNING: Take Action! A Flood or Flash Flood Warning is issued when the hazardous weather event is imminent or already happening. A Flood Warning is issued when flooding is imminent or occurring.

FLOOD WATCH & FLASH FLOOD WATCH: Be Prepared: A Flood or Flash Flood Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for a specific hazardous weather event to occur. A Flood or Flash Flood Watch is issued when conditions are favorable for flooding or flash flooding. It does not mean flooding or flash flooding will occur, but it is possible.

FLOOD ADVISORY & FLASH FLOOD ADVISORY: Be Aware: A Flood or Flash Flood Advisory is issued when a specific weather event that is forecast to occur may become a nuisance. A Flood or Flash Flood Advisory is issued when flooding or flash flooding is not expected to be bad enough to issue a warning. However, it may cause significant inconvenience, and if caution is not exercised, it could lead to situations that may threaten life and/or property.

LOCAL

Here in Raleigh and the surrounding viewing area, a warm and muggy day is underway. Highs today will reach the mid to upper 80's. Depending on just how much sun you see could have an impact on the temps. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70's. We have a good chance to see some showers and storms this afternoon but then increasing in coverage by this evening. A few of these storms could be strong to severe and produce damaging winds and possibly some hail. Frequent lightning is also something you need to be wary of. More afternoon and evening storms are expected tomorrow and especially on Friday as a cold front moved through. #ncwx #scwx #raleighwx I hope you all have a wonderful day. ~Pete