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banks’ mandatory reserves, which markets interpreted as a confusing act of
desperation. That had the adverse effect of weakening household and business
demand. And, despite the BOJ’s easing, global Sinancial conditions soon caused a rise
in the value of the yen, which rose nearly 10% relative to the dollar.
This week, the BOJ surprised markets by making no policy change at its meeting,
contrary to the widespread expectation of a signiSicant further easing of monetary
conditions. Markets reacted sharply, with the yen strengthening by 2% against the
dollar and the Japanese stock market falling 3%.
Abe began his Siscal policy with a substantial spending program, focused primarily on
repairing and replacing infrastructure affected by the 2011 earthquake. But he also
raised the value-added tax (VAT) from 5% to 8% to address the enormous deSicit and
growing national debt. The result was an economic downturn, with two quarters of
declining GDP. The level of real GDP now is no higher than it was in 2008
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