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The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and less then 3 years for people with ≥6). Conclusions Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data (including LTC type, severity, and potential confounders such as socioeconomic-deprivation and care-home status) is needed to optimise YLL estimates for specific populations, and to understand the global burden of COVID-19, and guide policy-making and interventions.Background During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown, contact clustering in social bubbles may allow extending contacts beyond the household at minimal additional risk and hence has been considered as part of modified lockdown policy or a gradual lockdown exit strategy. We estimated the impact of such strategies on epidemic and mortality risk using the UK as a case study. Methods We used an individual based model for a synthetic population similar to the UK, stratified into transmission risks from the community, within the household and from other households in the same social bubble. The base case considers a situation where non-essential shops and schools are closed, the secondary household attack rate is 20% and the initial reproduction number is 0.8. We simulate social bubble strategies (where two households form an exclusive pair) for households including children, for single occupancy households, and for all households. We test the sensitivity of results to a range of alternative model assumptions and parameters. Results Clustering contacts outside the household into exclusive bubbles is an effective strategy of increasing contacts while limiting the associated increase in epidemic risk. In the base case, social bubbles reduced fatalities by 42% compared to an unclustered increase of contacts. We find that if all households were to form social bubbles the reproduction number would likely increase to above the epidemic threshold of R=1. Strategies allowing households with young children or single occupancy households to form social bubbles increased the reproduction number by less than 11%. The corresponding increase in mortality is proportional to the increase in the epidemic risk but is focussed in older adults irrespective of inclusion in social bubbles. Conclusions If managed appropriately, social bubbles can be an effective way of extending contacts beyond the household while limiting the increase in epidemic risk.Introduction Contact tracing has the potential to control outbreaks without the need for stringent physical distancing policies, e.g. civil lockdowns. Unlike forward contact tracing, backward contact tracing identifies the source of newly detected cases. This approach is particularly valuable when there is high individual-level variation in the number of secondary transmissions (overdispersion). Methods By using a simple branching process model, we explored the potential of combining backward contact tracing with more conventional forward contact tracing for control of COVID-19. We estimated the typical size of clusters that can be reached by backward tracing and simulated the incremental effectiveness of combining backward tracing with conventional forward tracing. Results Across ranges of parameter values consistent with dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, backward tracing is expected to identify a primary case generating 3-10 times more infections than a randomly chosen case, typically increasing the proportion of subsequent cases averted by a factor of 2-3. The estimated number of cases averted by backward tracing became greater with a higher degree of overdispersion. Conclusion Backward contact tracing can be an effective tool for outbreak control, especially in the presence of overdispersion as is observed with SARS-CoV-2.Coronaviruses are a common class of respiratory viruses that can cause human infections. 2019 novel coronavirus(2019-nCoV), a new coronavirus that has recently caused a pandemic, has affected millions of people and put tremendous pressure on the health systems of almost every country in the world. Coronaviruses are known to spread from person to person through droplets or contact. The 2019-nCoV has also been found in the conjunctival secretions and tears of some clinically diagnosed patients. To assess whether the eye is one of the transmission routes of the virus, we review literature, and summarize the anatomy of the eye-nose pathway, the expression of the virus receptor in the eye, the preclinical animal studies, and the clinical data. We analyze the possibility of eyes as a means of transmission and propose some suggestions of ocular protection. selleck chemicals (Chin J Ophthalmol, 2021, 57 305-310).Atropine is a classical drug with a wide use in clinical practice. In ophthalmology, atropine can be used for cycloplegia before optometry, and the treatment of amblyopia, iridocyclitis, malignant glaucoma, etc. In recent years, the "old drugs with new application " research and application of atropine for myopia prevention and control has become a hotspot and the efficacy of atropine has been preliminarily recognized. However, before the widely used in clinical, the safety of atropine draws attention. Researches concerning side effects of atropine were searched. The most common problem is photophobia due to dilated pupils, followed by poor near visual acuity, allergy and inflammation, local irritation. Other side effects include withdraw rebound, dry eyes, elevation of intraocular pressure, system reactions, photic damage and toxicity. Among them, some side effects are theoretical yet, and the long-term effects of some side reactions are not clear. Further research and exploration is needed to serve clinical evidence. At present, investigational usage for myopia prevention and control in clinical trials of atropine can be beneficial. Safety observation and efficacy evaluation are equally important in the course of application. (Chin J Ophthalmol, 2021, 57 299-304).
Read More: https://www.selleckchem.com/products/rki-1447.html
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