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Since December 2019, a new coronavirus viral was initially detected in Wuhan, China. Population migration increases the risk of epidemic transmission. Here, the objective of study is to estimate the output risk quantitatively and evaluate the effectiveness of travel restrictions of Wuhan city.
We proposed a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) dynamics model to predict the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptomatic and asymptomatic infections in Wuhan. And, subsequently, we estimated the export risk of COVID-19 epidemic from Wuhan to other provinces in China. Finally, we estimated the effectiveness of travel restrictions of Wuhan city quantitatively by the export risk on the assumption that the measure was postponed.
The export risks of COVID-19 varied from Wuhan to other provinces of China. The peak of export risk was January 21-23, 2020. With the travel restrictions of Wuhan delayed by 3, 5, and 7 d, the export risk indexes will increase by 38.50%, 55.89%, and 65.63%, respectively.
The results indicate that the travel restrictions of Wuhan reduced the export risk and delayed the overall epidemic progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. The travel restrictions of Wuhan city may provide a reference for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic all over the world.
The results indicate that the travel restrictions of Wuhan reduced the export risk and delayed the overall epidemic progression of the COVID-19 epidemic in China. The travel restrictions of Wuhan city may provide a reference for the control of the COVID-19 epidemic all over the world.
Common mental disorders (CMDs), particularly depression, are major contributors to the global mental health burden. South Asia, while diverse, has cultural, social, and economic challenges, which are common across the region, not least an aging population. This creates an imperative to better understand how CMD affects older people in this context, which relies on valid and culturally appropriate screening and research tools. This review aims to scope the availability of CMD screening tools for older people in South Asia. As a secondary aim, this review will summarize the use of these tools in epidemiology, and the extent to which they have been validated or adapted for this population.
A scoping review was performed, following PRISMA guidelines. The search strategy was developed iteratively in Medline and translated to Embase, PsychInfo, Scopus, and Web of Science. Data were extracted from papers in which a tool was used to identify CMD in a South Asian older population (50+), including validation, adapt as anxiety.
This review identifies a number of current research gaps including a need for culturally relevant validation studies, and attention to other CMDs such as anxiety.
Early identification of patients with novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who may be at high mortality risk is of great importance.
In this retrospective study, we included all patients with COVID-19 at Huanggang Central Hospital from January 23 to March 5, 2020. Data on clinical characteristics and outcomes were compared between survivors and nonsurvivors. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to explore risk factors associated with in-hospital death. A nomogram was established based on the risk factors selected by multivariable analysis.
A total of 150 patients were enrolled, including 31 nonsurvivors and 119 survivors. The multivariable logistic analysis indicated that increasing the odds of in-hospital death associated with higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score (odds ratio [OR], 3.077; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.848-5.122; P < 0.001), diabetes (OR, 10.474; 95% CI 1.554-70.617; P = 0.016), and lactate dehydrogenase greater than 245 U/L (OR, 13.169; 95% CI 2.934-59.105; P = 0.001) on admission. selleck chemical A nomogram was established based on the results of the multivariable analysis. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.970 (95% CI 0.947-0.992), showing good accuracy in predicting the risk of in-hospital death.
This finding would facilitate the early identification of patients with COVID-19 who have a high-risk for fatal outcome.
This finding would facilitate the early identification of patients with COVID-19 who have a high-risk for fatal outcome.Pre-existing health conditions may exacerbate the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to estimate the case-fatality rate (CFR) and rate ratios (RR) for patients with hypertension (HBP) and diabetes mellitus (DM) in the New York state. We obtained the age-specific number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths from public reports provided by the New York State Department of Health, and age-specific prevalence of HBP and DM from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2017. We calculated CFR and RR for COVID-19 patients with HBP and DM based on the reported number of deaths with the comorbidity divided by the expected number of COVID-19 cases with the comorbidity. We performed subgroup analysis by age and calculated the CFR and RR for ages of 18-44, 45-64 and 65+ years, respectively. We found that the older population had a higher CFR, but the elevated RRs associated with comorbidities are more pronounced among the younger population. Our findings suggest that besides the elderly, the young population with comorbidity should also be considered as a vulnerable group.
Microlaryngoscopy is an aerosol-generating procedure. This paper presents a novel approach for better protecting staff during microlaryngoscopy.
A clear plastic microscope drape is attached to the objective lens. Instead of using the drape to cover the microscope, it is pulled down to cover the patient's head and torso. The holes designated for the binoculars of the microscope are used for the surgeon hands, forming protective clear plastic sleeves.
The proposed technique, which is simple, relatively inexpensive and technically feasible for any hospital to perform during microlaryngoscopy procedures, can increase safety and minimise droplet and aerosol exposure in the operating theatre.
The proposed technique, which is simple, relatively inexpensive and technically feasible for any hospital to perform during microlaryngoscopy procedures, can increase safety and minimise droplet and aerosol exposure in the operating theatre.
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