Notes

Systematic review of predictive statistical models of COVID-19 pandemic.
The plaque reduction neutralization test exclusively detects antibodies which neutralize viruses but the procedure is complicated and can only be carried out in secure laboratories (L3). In addition, the importance of these antibodies with respect to immunity against a second infection is uncertain. Thanks to modern techniques thousands of SARS-CoV‑2 sequences are already available, which show a genomic variability. The D614G mutation in the S spikes seems to cause a higher infectiousness. Mutations can impair the diagnostics and treatment, which makes monitoring necessary.Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a beta coronavirus, which first appeared in 2019 and rapidly spread causing a worldwide pandemic. Here we present a nonsystematic review of the current knowledge on its epidemiological features. The SARS-CoV‑2 replicates mainly in the upper and lower respiratory tract and is mainly transmitted by droplets and aerosols from asymptomatic and symptomatic infected subjects. The estimate for the basic reproduction number (R0) is between 2 and 3 and the median incubation period is 6 days (range 2-14 days). Similar to the related coronaviruses SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), superspreading events play an important role in spreading the disease. The majority of infections run an uncomplicated course but 5-10% of those infected develop pneumonia or a systemic inflammation leading to hospitalization, respiratory and potentially multiorgan failure. The most important risk factors for a complicated disease course are age, hypertension, diabetes, chronic cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases and immunodeficiency. learn more The current infection fatality rate over all age groups is between 0.5% and 1% and the rate rises after the sixth decade of life. Nosocomial transmission and infections in medical personnel have been reported. A drastic reduction of social contacts has been implemented in many countries with outbreaks of SARS-CoV‑2, leading to rapid reductions in R0. Most interventions have used bundles and which of the measures have been more effective is still unknown. Using mathematical models an incidence of 0.4%-1.8% can be estimated for the first wave in Germany.The conclusions of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) following the peer review of the initial risk assessments carried out by the competent authorities of the rapporteur Member State, the Netherlands, and co-rapporteur Member State, France, for the pesticide active substance Metarhizium brunneum BIPESCO 5/F52 are reported. The context of the peer review was that required by Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 844/2012, as amended by Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 2018/1659. The conclusions were reached on the basis of the evaluation of the representative uses of Metarhizium brunneum BIPESCO 5/F52 as an insecticide and acaricide on meadows, grassland, amenity turf, maize, wine and table grape, potato, allium vegetables (only field uses) and ornamentals (floriculture, tree nurseries and perennials), strawberry, currants and berries, solanaceae fruiting vegetables (field and greenhouse uses) and cucurbit fruiting vegetables (only greenhouse uses). The reliable end points, appropriate for use in regulatory risk assessment, are presented. Missing information identified as being required by the regulatory framework is listed. Concerns are identified.EFSA was requested to estimate the cattle bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) risk (C-, L- and H-BSE) posed by ruminant collagen and gelatine produced from raw material fit for human consumption, or from material classified as Category 3 animal by-products (ABP), to be used in feed intended for non-ruminant animals, including aquaculture animals. Three risk pathways (RP) were identified by which cattle could be exposed to ruminant feed cross-contaminated with ruminant collagen or gelatine 1) recycled former foodstuffs produced in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 853/2004 (RP1), 2) technological or nutritional additives or 3) compound feed, produced either in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 853/2004 (RP2a) or Regulation (EU) No 142/2011 (RP2b). A probabilistic model was developed to estimate the BSE infectivity load measured in cattle oral ID 50 (CoID 50)/kg, in the gelatine produced from the bones and hide of one infected animal older than 30 months with clinical BSE (worst-case scenario). The amount of BSE infectivity (50th percentile estimate) in a member state (MS) with negligible risk status was 7.6 × 10-2 CoID 50/kg, and 3.1 × 10-4 CoID 50/kg in a MS with controlled risk status. The assessment considered the potential contamination pathways and the model results (including uncertainties) regarding the current epidemiological situation in the EU and current statutory controls. Given the estimated amount of BSE infectivity to which cattle would be exposed in a single year, and even if all the estimated undetected BSE cases in the EU were used for the production of collagen or gelatine (either using raw materials fit for human consumption or Category 3 ABP raw materials), it was concluded that the probability that no new case of BSE in the cattle population would be generated through any of the three RP is 99-100% (almost certain).EFSA was asked by the European Commission to consider synthetic biology developments for agri-food use in the near future and to determine if the use of this technology is expected to constitute potential risks and hazards for the environment. Moreover, EFSA was requested to evaluate the adequacy of existing guidelines for risk assessment and if updated guidance is needed. The scope of this Opinion covers viable synthetic biology microorganisms (SynBioMs) expected to be deliberately released into the environment. The evaluation was based on (i) horizon scanning of published information, (ii) gap analysis of existing guidelines covering the scope of this mandate, and (iii) future outlooks. A horizon scan showed that SynBioM applications could be ready for deliberate release into the environment of the EU in the next decade. However, extensively engineered SynBioMs are only expected in the wider future. For the microbial characterisation and the environmental risk assessment, the existing EFSA Guidances are useful as a basis.
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