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We introduce a Bayesian neural network model that can accurately predict not only if, but also when a compact planetary system with three or more planets will go unstable. Our model, trained directly from short N-body time series of raw orbital elements, is more than two orders of magnitude more accurate at predicting instability times than analytical estimators, while also reducing the bias of existing machine learning algorithms by nearly a factor of three. Despite being trained on compact resonant and near-resonant three-planet configurations, the model demonstrates robust generalization to both nonresonant and higher multiplicity configurations, in the latter case outperforming models fit to that specific set of integrations. The model computes instability estimates up to [Formula see text] times faster than a numerical integrator, and unlike previous efforts provides confidence intervals on its predictions. Our inference model is publicly available in the SPOCK (https//github.com/dtamayo/spock) package, with training code open sourced (https//github.com/MilesCranmer/bnn_chaos_model).Density estimation in sequence space is a fundamental problem in machine learning that is also of great importance in computational biology. Due to the discrete nature and large dimensionality of sequence space, how best to estimate such probability distributions from a sample of observed sequences remains unclear. One common strategy for addressing this problem is to estimate the probability distribution using maximum entropy (i.e., calculating point estimates for some set of correlations based on the observed sequences and predicting the probability distribution that is as uniform as possible while still matching these point estimates). Building on recent advances in Bayesian field-theoretic density estimation, we present a generalization of this maximum entropy approach that provides greater expressivity in regions of sequence space where data are plentiful while still maintaining a conservative maximum entropy character in regions of sequence space where data are sparse or absent. In particular, we define a family of priors for probability distributions over sequence space with a single hyperparameter that controls the expected magnitude of higher-order correlations. This family of priors then results in a corresponding one-dimensional family of maximum a posteriori estimates that interpolate smoothly between the maximum entropy estimate and the observed sample frequencies. To demonstrate the power of this method, we use it to explore the high-dimensional geometry of the distribution of 5' splice sites found in the human genome and to understand patterns of chromosomal abnormalities across human cancers.Autoinflammatory syndromes result in a defective innate immune system. They are characterised by unexplained fever and systemic inflammation involving the skin, muscle, joints, serosa and eyes, along with elevated acute phase reactants. Autoinflammatory syndromes are increasingly recognised as a cause of neurological disease with a diverse range of manifestations. Corticosteroids, colchicine and targeted therapies are effective if started early, and hence the importance of recognising these syndromes. Here, we review the neurological features of specific autoinflammatory syndromes and our approach (as adult neurologists) to their diagnosis.Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that efficiently neutralize SARS-CoV-2 have been developed at an unprecedented speed. Notwithstanding, there is a vague understanding of the various Ab functions induced beyond antigen binding by the heavy-chain constant domain. To explore the diverse roles of Abs in SARS-CoV-2 immunity, we expressed a SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (SP) binding mAb (H4) in the four IgG subclasses present in human serum (IgG1-4) using glyco-engineered Nicotiana benthamiana plants. All four subclasses, carrying the identical antigen-binding site, were fully assembled in planta and exhibited a largely homogeneous xylose- and fucose-free glycosylation profile. The Ab variants ligated to the SP with an up to fivefold increased binding activity of IgG3. Furthermore, all H4 subtypes were able to neutralize SARS-CoV-2. However, H4-IgG3 exhibited an up to 50-fold superior neutralization potency compared with the other subclasses. Our data point to a strong protective effect of IgG3 Abs in SARS-CoV-2 infection and suggest that superior neutralization might be a consequence of cross-linking the SP on the viral surface. This should be considered in therapy and vaccine development. In addition, we underscore the versatile use of plants for the rapid expression of complex proteins in emergency cases.The problem of optimizing over random structures emerges in many areas of science and engineering, ranging from statistical physics to machine learning and artificial intelligence. For many such structures, finding optimal solutions by means of fast algorithms is not known and often is believed not to be possible. At the same time, the formal hardness of these problems in the form of the complexity-theoretic NP-hardness is lacking. A new approach for algorithmic intractability in random structures is described in this article, which is based on the topological disconnectivity property of the set of pairwise distances of near-optimal solutions, called the Overlap Gap Property. learn more The article demonstrates how this property 1) emerges in most models known to exhibit an apparent algorithmic hardness; 2) is consistent with the hardness/tractability phase transition for many models analyzed to the day; and, importantly, 3) allows to mathematically rigorously rule out a large class of algorithms as potential contenders, specifically the algorithms that exhibit the input stability (insensitivity).
Interventions to improve care team situation awareness (SA) are associated with reduced rates of unrecognized clinical deterioration in hospitalized children. By addressing themes from recent safety events and emerging corruptors to SA in our system, we aimed to decrease emergency transfers (ETs) to the ICU by 50% over 10 months.
An interdisciplinary team of physicians, nurses, respiratory therapists, and families convened to improve the original SA model for clinical deterioration and address communication inadequacies and evolving technology in our inpatient system. The key drivers included the establishment of a shared mental model, psychologically safe escalation, and efficient and effective SA tools. Novel interventions including the intentional inclusion of families and the interdisciplinary team in huddles, a mental model checklist, door signage, and an electronic health record SA navigator were evaluated via a time series analysis. Sequential inpatient-wide testing of the model allowed for iteration and consensus building across care teams and families. The primary outcome measure was ETs, defined as any ICU transfer in which the patient receives intubation, inotropes, or ≥3 fluid boluses within 1 hour.
The rate of ETs per 10 000 patient-days decreased from 1.34 to 0.41 during the study period. This coincided with special cause improvement in process measures, including risk recognition before medical response team activation and the use of tools to facilitate shared SA.
An innovative, proactive, and reliable process to predict, prevent, and respond to clinical deterioration was associated with a nearly 70% reduction in ETs.
An innovative, proactive, and reliable process to predict, prevent, and respond to clinical deterioration was associated with a nearly 70% reduction in ETs.Background Although prior studies have established the association of asthma with smoking and obesity, literature on difference-in-differences analyses involving sexual identity is sparse. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the between and within sexual identity-group differences in asthma prevalence among individuals who smoke and are obese. Methods We aggregated the 2017-2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data on adults (N= 128,319) to perform weighted multivariable logistic regression analysis and marginal estimates and marginsplot to determine asthma prevalence by sexual identity and the status of smoking and obesity. Results About 66.38% of the study population reported having asthma. Among the individuals with asthma, 42.20% were obese, 10.15% were daily cigarette smokers, and 6.22% identified as bisexual persons. Lesbian/gay daily smokers (86%) or former smokers (75%) had a higher probability of having asthma than bisexual (daily smokers= 78% vs. former smokers= 72%) and heterosexugender minorities.
Rapid revascularisation in acute ischaemic stroke is crucial to reduce its total burden including societal costs. A quality improvement (QI) project that included streamlining the stroke care pathway and simulation-based training was followed by a significant reduction in median door-to-needle time (27 to 13 min) and improved patient outcomes after stroke thrombolysis at our centre. Here, we present a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis of the QI project.
Costs for implementing and sustaining QI were assessed using recognised frameworks for economic evaluations. Effectiveness was calculated from previously published outcome measures. Cost-effectiveness was presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios including costs per minute door-to-needle time reduction per patient, and costs per averted death in the 13-month post-intervention period. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for a projected 5-year post-intervention period and for varying numbers of patients treated with thromoke thrombolysis treatment at our centre can be implemented and sustained at a relatively low cost with increasing cost-effectiveness over time. Our work builds on the emerging theory and practice for economic evaluations in QI projects and simulation-based training. The presented cost-effectiveness data might help guide healthcare leaders planning similar interventions.
The goal of this study was to determine if the choice of imaging paradigm performed in the emergency department influences the procedural or clinical outcomes after mechanical thrombectomy (MT).
This is a retrospective comparative outcome study which was conducted from the ANGEL-ACT registry. Comparisons were made between baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with acute ischemic stroke undergoing MT with non-contrast head computed tomography (NCHCT) alone versus patients undergoing NCHCT plus non-invasive vessel imaging (NVI) (including CT angiography (with or without CT perfusion) and magnetic resonance angiography). The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 90 days. Secondary outcomes included change in mRS score from baseline to 90 days, the proportions of mRS 0-1, 0-2, and 0-3, and dramatic clinical improvement at 24 hours. The safety outcomes were any intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), symptomatic ICH, and mortality within 90 days.
A total of 894 patients met the inclusion criteria; 476 (53%) underwent NCHCT alone and 418 (47%) underwent NCHCT + NVI. In the NCHCT alone group, the door-to-reperfusion time was shorter by 47 min compared with the NCHCT + NVI group (219 vs 266 min, P<0.001). Patients in the NCHCT alone group showed a smaller increase in baseline mRS score at 90 days (median 3 vs 2 points; P=0.004) after adjustment. There were no significant differences between groups in the remaining clinical outcomes.
In patients selected for MT using NCHCT alone versus NCHCT + NVI, there were improved procedural outcomes and smaller increases in baseline mRS scores at 90 days.
In patients selected for MT using NCHCT alone versus NCHCT + NVI, there were improved procedural outcomes and smaller increases in baseline mRS scores at 90 days.
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