Notes

Preseason Betting Guide for NFL Football - Part 2
We have discussed some preseason NFL football betting tips in the previous article. The underdogs are 406-335-227, 54.8 percent against the spread in all preseason games. It is wise to blindly follow the dogs for Weeks 1 and 4. It makes sense because those two weeks are when the starters play the least if at all. The coaches are still evaluating Week 1's reserves, and Week 4's starters as they are being rested for the season opener.

The 'under' in totals is a nondescript 388-381-8 score from the 2000 preseason. However, as we will see when we look at our trends for each week, each has a distinct total pattern. Here is the average weekly score since 2000.

HOF Game + Pre-Week 1 - 35.0
Pre-Week 2: 37.1
Pre-Week 3: 39.0
Pre-Week 4 and 37.3

Take note that we have combined the Hall of Fame Game and Week 1 of preseason as one week, and that there is direct correlation between the scoring averages and the playing time of the starters.
Games are lower scoring in Week 1 when teams are in the evaluation stage, and then the scoring increases over the next two weeks, peaking in Week 3 when starters play the longest before dropping in Week 4 when many of the starters sit.

HOF Week - Pre - Week 1
All HOF and Week 1 underdogs are 108-88-10, 55.1 percent ATS, and if you are fortunate enough to find underdogs of +3 1/2 or more, they are 33-24, 57.9 percent ATS in Week 1. These lines are becoming rare as only two opening games of last season saw more than +3 at Pinnacle. The underdogs split those games 1-1.

Pre-Week 2
This week is perhaps the one with the most profit potential ATS, because of the most angles that have been profitable over the last 12 pre-seasons. http://feng-shui-and-beyond.com/casinos-have-the-only-way-to-turn-a-profit/ Notably just about all of those angles are inversely correlated to team's Week1 result.

More specifically, all Week 2 teams coming off of a straight up loss are 110-76-2, 59.1 percent ATS while all coming off of a win are 78-112-1 for a 58.9 percent ATS fade!
Breaking down Week 2 teams off of a loss further, road teams are 54-34-1, 61.4 percent ATS and underdogs are an unbelievable 62-25-2, 71.3 percent ATS! Braking down Week 2 teams off a win, home teams are 36-54 for a 60.0 percent fade and favorites are 34-56-1 for a 62,2 percent fade. Finally, any team off of a loss facing any team off of a win is 63-33-1, 65.6 percent ATS.

Pre-Week 3
This week's starters will likely play the longest. It is similar to regular season, which is higher scoring and gives favorites a chance to shine.

Pre-Week 4
From great play, we go to sloppy playing with games being dominated by reserves and thus a return to blind underdog dominance. Blindly playing all four underdogs in Week 4 has been 101-80-8, 55.7 percent ATS since 2000. This is a pattern that continued last season, when the underdogs went 9-5-1 ATS in the preseason's final week.

You can win more money in the preseason than in the regular seasons (it's just as exciting in the regular-season). If you know how to place your bets, it is very likely. We hope you find our NFL preseason betting guide useful. Good luck.
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