Notes

The Art Of Outright Tennis Betting_ Lesson 5 - The Surface
One of the great advantages of tennis, in terms of betting as much as viewing, is the use of different surfaces at different ATP Tour events.


The 2010 schedule of 65 main events is split, broadly speaking, between hard courts (both indoor and outdoor), clay and grass. http://rebperkins.com/lottery-software-and-its-advantages/ The majority (37) are played on the faster, harder surfaces with clay (21) the next most widely used and the grass court season (6) now limited to a handful of events in June/July.


What this often highlights amongst the players is a difference in ability, a variety of performance and often a mismatch of styles. For example, if a natural clay-courter plays an opponent considered as a 'hard-court player' on a slow dirt surface then we all know who is going to win. But, if you put the same players on a faster, bumpier surface, it's the hard-court performer who wins.


Such situations we can easily exploit in match betting situations but we can also utiliset this phenomenon when we consider outright tournament betting.


Bookmakers often give undue credit to (a) well ranked players (b) recent tour winners or (c) players generally in good form. The point is, that doesn't always take into consideration the surface which is being used ... so you're in great form on clay but we're playing on grass this week!


Astute tennis traders should be able to spot these situations - on the one hand, discounting players in the draw who aren't suited to the surface but, on the other, locating those who can be expected to significantly up their performance (simply because of the particular type of court in use).


Example: Lleyton Hewitt (Halle 2010) WON 14/1


Hewitt's career record (537:188) shows a 74% winning ratio on all surfaces. Focusing solely on grass, his 98/23 record shows Hewitt winning 81% of his matches. This was Hewitt's most preferred surface for the Gerry Weber German event. He'd also played in the final of six grass court tournaments prior to this event ... and won all six. He was in moderate form going into the grass court season. A return to the "green stuff" saw him win a 7th title at a highly inflated price.


Remember, therefore, to give due credit to a player's form on the surface being used and not to the success they may have enjoyed on another type of court. Certainly players can 'carry over' their form from one to another but generally speaking, even amongst the very top performers, you'll find significant differences in ability (and so opportunities to exploit).
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