Notes

The Art of Outright Tennis Betting_ Lesson 3- Seeding
In basic terms, the seeding for any given tennis tournament (World Tour 250 to Grand Slam) is done according to the same, simple guideline.

The total number of players, which can be 28, 32, 48 or 64, are listed in the order of their world ranking. Seedings are then given in descending order until the desired number of seeds are determined. Hence, the highest player in the world rankings is the No.1 seed, the next highest is No.2, then No.3 and so on.

The No.1 and the No.3 seeds are placed in the top portion of the draw and the No.2 or No.4 seeds in bottom. This is the usual format. http://altenburgfordelegate.net/lottery-secrets-how-to-use-visualization-techniques/ The remaining seeds are then split equally so as to produce the framework around which the rest of the draw is made.

Not rocket science (and the above blueprint is open to a fair amount of interpretation by tournament organisers from time to time) but it's something which every tennis backer should be familiar with - although not many are!

Blindly accepting these seedings when selecting outright bets can lead to high-risk strategies. They take little, or no, account of current form, surface form nor the rest of the players in the draw (in that a top seed might avoid other seeds until the QF's or SF's but they could still face some tough opponents in the opening rounds).

The statistics are clear that the No.1 seeds do not win as many tournaments than you might think.

The ratio of wins/seeds in the 20 first tournaments of 2010 was: No.1 (1), No.2(4), and No.3(5). No.4 & 5 (0), No.6 (1). No.7(0), No.8 (1). Unseeded (5). This is right. Only 4/20, or 20%, of ATP Tour winners were top seeded. However, interestingly 5/20 (or 25%) were unseeded.

Example: Feliciano Lopez (Johannesburg 2010) WON 8/1
The Spaniard was the No.3 seed in South Africa - statistically the most successful of the seeds - and his success added further evidence to the argument that not every No.1 seed should be seen as the surefire winner of a tournament. They are not more likely than any other seed to win, according to the numbers.

And so whilst there is sense in believing the No.1 seed is the best player in the draw (as he's the highest in the world rankings) and so the player who is most likely to win, this is a far too simplistic a method upon which to base a whole betting strategy.

When making outright bets, the seedings should only be used as a guideline. After all, the market leader is not always the No.1 seed. If the bookies don't consider him the most likely winner why should you?
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