Notes

EURGBP

The Bank of England may have to raise rates despite earlier balanced comments. UK labor market figures show mixed data, with employment falling for a second month while the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%. Wage growth continues to rise, with average earnings at 8.5%, making it unlikely for the MPC to pause. Market consensus is for a 25 basis point rate hike, with the future dependent on data performance over the next two months.

The EUR/GBP pair has been trading with a bearish bias but maintains a sideways trend. Recent trading has seen attempts to break lower, but the pair has consistently recovered. A move above the simple moving average band could shift focus to the top of the range, potentially signaling a break of a double bottom neckline.

The 4-hour chart analysis of Gold futures indicates strong bearish sentiment above $1953. Despite attempts since September 6, 2023, gold has struggled to breach the 200 DMA resistance at $1953.

This week, gold is expected to face exhaustion, with the US dollar index gaining strength post the G-20 Summit, and global geopolitical concerns persisting. Gold futures could follow a similar downward trend as seen from August 11 to August 17.

Selling pressure currently matches buying, with support at $1913. Concerns about the Federal Reserve's actions to control inflation, including possible rate cuts in the upcoming September 19-20 meeting, contribute to this pressure.

There's a high likelihood of gold falling further this week, and breaking below $1913 may lead to a drop below $1882, the next strong support level. A reversal is unlikely if gold falls below $1930 during today's trading session.

Disclaimer: The author's position in Gold futures is not disclosed, and readers should trade at their own risk, considering the inherent risks in trading.

This week, the EUR/USD currency pair is facing significant events that could impact its performance. The Dollar Index (DXY) recently rose for eight consecutive weeks but faced some setbacks due to hawkish comments from BOJ Governor Ueda. However, the DXY is bouncing back, supported by strong US data.

Investors are closely watching the US CPI report expected on Wednesday, which could influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates. Stronger inflation data might further support the US dollar.

Additionally, the ECB meeting on Thursday adds another layer of uncertainty for the EUR/USD. The euro has been under pressure due to concerns about Eurozone and Chinese economic growth, and the probability of an ECB rate hike has decreased.

Technically, the EUR/USD remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows. Key resistance is around 1.0765-75, and a higher high above 1.0945 would signal a change in the bearish trend. On the downside, the May 2023 low of 1.0635 is a significant target for bears.