Notes

UK wage growth hits a record high at 8.5% including bonuses
Unemployment remains at 4.3% as the number of unemployed falls by 207,000
Sterling traded lower after the release
The Bank of England may have little option but to raise rates again next week despite comments recently indicating the debate will be fairly balanced.

The UK labour market figures offer something for everyone on the face of it but under the circumstances, BoE hawks will likely be more emboldened by the figures than the doves.

Employment figures fell for a second month as the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% which may be viewed as mildly encouraging to policymakers hoping to see more slack in the labour market. But much more progress will be needed if we’re going to see the vote swing in favour of a hold.

Especially when wage growth is continuing to rise, with average earnings not only rising to 8.5%, including bonuses but the June figure also being revised higher to 8.4%. I don’t see how the MPC can see that and even consider pausing on the whole and markets seem to agree, with a 25 basis point hike almost 80% priced in. What comes after that is harder to judge at this stage and will depend on how the data performs over the next two months.

The pound slipped a little since the release following the initial volatility which has set up quite an interesting technical picture.

While the EUR/GBP has been trading with a slightly more bearish bias – tracking the 55/89-day simple moving average band lower – the broader trend over the last few months has been sideways. So is that set to continue or could we see a break lower?

What’s interesting this week is that while the pair has traded lower at times, it’s recovered those losses on both days to trade in positive territory. Those long lower wicks could be a bullish signal as the pair have clearly attempted to head lower again off the SMA band but instead for a fourth day in a row, it’s threatening to break it.

A move back above may shift the focus from the bottom of the range to the top of it, especially as it could be followed by a break of a double bottom neckline which would be interesting. The double bottom isn’t perfect but it’s certainly an interesting setup.