Notes

6 Disadvantages of Playing Roulette.Why Post Hoc Fallacy Causes Bad Gambling Decisions
It?s perfectly fine to have a few spins at the roulette table for a big change of pace, but I don?t recommend you play for long. There are numerous disadvantages to this game that needs to be discussed.

I?ve narrowed it down to six awful qualities about roulette that make the overall game almost unplayable. You can find several decent opportunities to play real money roulette online, but they?re usually rather difficult to find.

Along with these six disadvantages about roulette, you?lso are going to learn the very best technique for roulette play should you choose desire to play. You?ll also learn exactly what to search for before you play the overall game.

1 ? The Double Zero Space
The worst thing that ever happened to roulette was the introduction of the 00, or double zero, space. Roulette originally only had an individual zero space and the numbers 1 to 36. This created a wheel and table with 37 spaces.

What this designed for gamblers was that no matter what bet they made, the return was 97.3%. This isn?t the very best return in casinos, but it?s far from the worst. Apparently, this return wasn?t enough for a few casinos, so they developed a way to get yourself a higher return from their roulette tables.

That's where the 00 space comes into play. With the addition of this space to the table and wheel, nowadays there are 38 spaces. And the table still pays out the same amounts, except with this particular variation, the odds are higher against you.

If you bet on 17 on a traditional table, you've got a 1 out of 37 potential for the ball landing on 17. But on a table with a 00 space you only have a 1 out of 38 chance to win. This changes the return from 97.3% to less than 95%.

The best plan of action is to refuse to ever play on a roulette table that has a 00 space.

2 ? European Rules Tables
The roulette table I called a normal table, with 37 total spaces, is often called a European Roulette table or European Rules Roulette. After reading the last section, you might think that you need to play on one of the tables.

A European Roulette table is way better when compared to a table with a 00 space. But this doesn?t imply that it?s the roulette table that you should choose. In fact, this is exactly what most casinos want one to believe and do.

The casinos want you to compare a double 00 roulette table with a European Roulette table and become thankful that you get to play using European rules. But there?s a better option out there.

THE VERY BEST Roulette Table Uses French Rules
A French Roulette table is basically exactly like a European rules table, with all of the same numbers and payouts. But French tables have a supplementary rule that provides you a higher return than European rules tables provide.

Once you place a bet on a French Roulette table on even or odd or black or red?quite simply, one of many even money wagers?and lose, your wager is positioned in holding or prison. In the event that you win the next wager, you get your cash back from the prior wager.

This makes the return on these wagers 98.65%.

3 ? The Best Roulette Is Only in High Roller Areas
You learned that French Roulette is the greatest option, so now you?re ready to go out and start playing roulette with a higher rate of return. But there?s a significant problem with this. In the event that you?re not just a high roller, the chances of getting a French Rules Roulette table it is possible to afford to play on are small.

In land-based casinos, it?s rare to locate a French Roulette table. And the few casinos offering these tables almost always keep these things in high roller areas, rather than on the primary casino floor.

Even if you are able to play in the high roller areas, you might still be better off playing at a European Roulette table with a lesser bet amount. If you bet $50 a spin at a French table, you lose exactly the same amount of money in the end as betting $25 a spin at a European table. Keep this at heart when you?re looking for a place to play roulette.

The other option is to look for a French Roulette table online. They?re obtainable in some online casinos, and the minimum bet amount tends to be lower than in land based casinos.

4 ? Limited Strategy Options
I like to play gambling games that i want to use strategy to influence my returns. Games like Texas Hold?em, blackjack and video poker provide chance to use strategy on every hand. And when I use strategy sufficiently, I would actually win more than I lose.

The problem with roulette is that there?s not much in the way of strategy that you can use to influence your outcomes and the return. Actually, you already read about all of the strategies that you can use once you play roulette. Merely to make sure that you know what these strategies are, I?m going to list them here.

Only play at a French Roulette table.
Play on a table with the cheapest bet limits you can get.
Always make the tiniest wager possible.
Only make even money wagers.
I know that sounds simple, but here is the only roulette strategy that works. Also it?s not likely to assist you to win necessarily, but it does help you limit your losses.

5 ? High Wager Floor
I touched with this problem in the section concerning the best tables being in high roller areas. The primary problem with roulette is that you can never overcome the home edge. Quite simply, you?re never likely to be capable of geting the return to 100% or higher.

What this means is that you?re likely to be an overall losing roulette player whatever you do. Whatever you can do is limit your losses around you can.

Even though you play roulette at a French table, you merely reach a return of 98.65%. While this is a superb return, it still implies that you?re losing profits. In fact, for each and every $1,000 you bet, you lose $13.50.

Because of this , high wager floors are terrible. A wager floor can be called a limit. The ground is the smallest amount that you could wager when you play roulette. On the regular casino floor in most places, the ground is $10 or $20. In high roller areas the ground can bet $100 or more.

The problem with high wager floors is that it forces one to put more income in play. And as you can view by the example above, the additional money you put in play at the roulette table the more money you lose.

6 ? Poor Roulette Bonus Offers
The last thing I wish to cover that I don?t like about roulette is bonus offers. Most gamblers think every bonus offer is fantastic. But the simple truth is that a lot of bonus offers are questionable. And it?s extremely rare to find a bonus for roulette that isn?t terrible.

The best way to judge whether a bonus offer is good or terrible is to browse the terms and run some simple math to see how much you?re likely to lose based on the terms and the house edge. When you?re going to lose more than the bonus, it?s a terrible bonus. And nearly every roulette bonus falls into this category.

Here?s exactly how to do this. Find the section of the terms which lets you know how much you will need to gamble. This is a multiple of the bonus amount, and frequently, a multiple of the bonus and the deposit.

For Example:
You might be required to play the bonus and deposit amount 100x before you can make a withdrawal. So, if you deposit $400 and obtain $400, you must bet $80,000 altogether.

Now you multiply the house edge for the game you?re playing times this amount to find how much you will probably lose. If you?re playing French Roulette, you can expect to lose $1,080. 1.35% house edge times $80,000 = $1,080.

$1,080 is more than the bonus of $400, so this is a terrible bonus.

Conclusion
Roulette tables and wheels that have 38 spaces will be the worst thing that has ever happened to the game of roulette. Each of the payouts stayed the same, but the odds got worse. This has made casinos a ton of money through the years.

This might cause you to think that European Roulette tables will be the strategy to use, but this is just another trap the casinos devote front of you. The only roulette tables you should look at will be the ones using French rules.

Always try to find opportunities to make small wagers, to check out good bonuses. Just don?t be prepared to find too many.Have you ever heard the expression, ?Post hoc ergo propter hoc?? You may be more familiar with the phrase ?post hoc fallacy.?

If you don't?ve spent some time studying logic or Latin, you might not have ever heard about it.

But it?s a phenomenon that pertains to gambling well.

And as you might have gathered from the title of the post, it translates to ?after this, therefore due to this.?

It means that when Event A happens first, Event B should be cause by Event A.

Also it?s a logical fallacy.

Sometimes, it?s true. But more regularly, it?s incorrect.

A good example of Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc in TRUE TO LIFE
I've a blue Hawaiian shirt that I like to wear to the casino. It fits well, and the colors are nice. I've blue eyes, so it makes my eyes pop.

The last 2 times I went to go gambling in the casino wearing that shirt, I came home successful.

Enough time before those two visits, the shirt was dirty, therefore i wore a red t-shirt that I like.

I offered to take my girlfriend to the casino with me this weekend, and she said she only wished to go if I wear my ?lucky blue shirt.?

I said, ?What makes you imagine it?s lucky??

?Well, the last two times you wore it to the casino, you came home a winner.?

Event A was wearing the blue shirt to the casino.

Event B was coming home successful.

Since it happened twice in a row, my girlfriend assumed that Event A caused Event B, but here?s the thing:

The games at the casino determine their outcomes randomly. The colour of my shirt does not have any influence on the RNG (random number generator) that determines the outcomes of my next slot machine game pull.

Basically, the blue shirt and the wins are entirely coincidental.

Another Example of This Fallacy EXTRACTED FROM Real Life
I belong to a support group for those who have a substance abuse problem. I met a female in this group with a severe autoimmune disorder. She has several twitches, talks slow, and often has trouble thinking clearly. Her speech can be often slurred because of her disorder.

A pal of mine dated her and contains known her for a decade. He told me that she wasn?t like that before the doctors put her on the antipsychotic meds and the antidepressants.

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This is usually a logical fallacy. The medications she?s on May be causing the other symptoms, but they might not. People develop such health problems as time passes. Because they developed in her after starting a fresh medication regimen doesn?t imply that her medication regimen necessarily caused these new symptoms.

They might have. It could even be worth discussing this with the doctors.

But the knee-jerk a reaction to assume that A caused B may have serious health consequences. This is where a fundamental understanding of logic becomes important.

Here?s Another Way of Looking at It
In decades and centuries past, people associated the arrival of a comet in the skies with disastrous events. Something bad always seemed to happen immediately after Halley?s Comet came rolling through the sky.

The most typical comet-induced disaster was the death of a ruler who was still in power. Of course, based on the ruler, this might not be considered much of a disaster.

This is why in Julius Caesar, Calpurnia says:

When beggars die, there are no comets seen;? The heavens themselves blaze forth the death of princes.

In the year 837, when Halley?s Comet came around, Ludwig the Pious ruled on the Frankish Empire. He was 58 yrs . old, and he?d been ruling for 23 years. In the 9th century, Ludwig was well past the expected lifespan for anyone, and he?d ruled an exceedingly long time.

But of course, Halley?s Comet foretold his death, at least, in accordance with believers in this logical fallacy.

Despite the fact that he didn?t die until four years later, the armies of the ignorant blamed the comet.

Halley?s Comet also appeared in 1066, which is a date any historian or literature buff remembers because the year William of Normandy invaded England. It had been likely that either William or Harold of Wessex would be defeated. So, the Comet couldn?t lose.

How Succumbing to This Fallacy Can Cost You Money
Suppose you play Texas Hold?em frequently. The last three times you were dealt pocket aces, someone else called your all-in preflop and won the pot. You decide that betting all-in on the flop is a bad move because someone always beats you, and that means you start limping in with that hand.

You?re now losing profits by not getting ultimately more money in to the pot with the strongest hand in the game. Texas Hold?em is really a game of random chance, and if you get your money in to the middle with AA preflop at a complete table, you?ll lose two-thirds of that time period.

But you?ll win one-third of that time period, and since there?s so much money up for grabs, you?ll profit.

Take into account the math. You have nine players and $100 each. You go all-in with aces nine times in a row, and you lose six of these times, but you win three times.

The six times you lose cost you $600.

Poker Hand

However the size of the pot on the three hands where you win is $900, which means you?ll win $2,700 on those three hands.

That?s a profit of $2,100 over nine hands, or $233.33 per hand. Your assumption that raising preflop with pocket aces makes you misplay this hand and lose money.

In any gambling game where you must make decisions based on the expected value of those decisions, you should go with what gets the highest expected value. This includes blackjack, where you need to follow basic strategy, and video poker, where you should also play your cards based on the appropriate strategy.

Lots of people who ignore basic strategy in blackjack or proper strategy in video poker achieve this since they?ve fallen prey to this logical fallacy.

THE WONDER of Random, Independent Events
Some gamblers take part in speculation about streaks. They count how many times the ball lands on a specific color in a row at the roulette table, for example. After a specific amount of instances, they assume that the colour is hot, so they bet with it.

The assumption is that the color is more likely to come up because it?s been approaching so often until now.

However when you?re playing real money roulette, a spin of the wheel is an independent event. What happened on the previous spin has no effect on the probability of the next spin.

The formula for probability is easy enough, you merely divide the number of ways you can achieve Outcome A by the full total possible outcomes.

On a roulette wheel, 18 of the numbers are red, and the wheel includes a total of 38 numbers.

This means that the likelihood of getting a specific color (red or black) is 18/38, or 47.37%.

That doesn?t change due to the amount of times that color has been hit previously.

Avoid ?This Always Happens When I REALLY DO That?
Suppose you've got a friend who plays the lottery, and she explains for you that she more often than not wins when she plays in the Wednesday drawing. Also, she never wins in the Friday drawing.

She offers to get you a lottery ticket on Wednesday if you?ll reimburse her for the ticket.

There are so many reasons you should turn this offer down. To begin with, the chances of winning the lottery?even a small win?are awful. Many times, the odds of even winning your money back are lower than 1 in 12.

Conclusion
In gambling and in life, you need to avoid the post hoc fallacy. It?s tempting to assume that there?s always a cause and effect relationship between events, but here?s the truth:

Much of the time, there?s not.
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