Notes

The it’ll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better fallacy is a variant of the confirmation bias that we have already covered it. it means that if the situation worsens, the prediction is confirmed and if it improves unexpectedly, the expert can attribute it to their skill and Either way, they win.

Situations do exist where things first start, then improve. For example, a career change or business reorganization takes time. But in these cases, we can see relatively quickly if the measures are working, and the milestones are clear and verifiable.


so, let's talk about this fallacy a little bit more.

how can we avoid falling the victim of this fallacy?

One way to avoid falling victim to the "It'll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better" fallacy is to critically evaluate claims that things will get worse before they get better and we have to ask ourselves; Is there evidence to support this claim, or is it just a way for someone to avoid responsibility for a situation that is not improving? These are important questions to ask when faced with this fallacy and it is also important to be aware of confirmation bias, where we tend to seek out information that confirms our beliefs and ignore information that contradicts them.



answer to your questions:

what was the story and give some examples?

A few years ago, the author fell sick while on vacation in Corsica in Italy. They were looking for help at a local clinic and were prescribed antibiotics by a young doctor than after few days The pain grew worse, and the author called the doctor, who increased the dose. After two more days of having severe pain, the author called an international air ambulance. A Swiss doctor diagnosed appendicitis and operated immediately. The author had fallen victim to a fallacy called it’ll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better.

In another example, a CEO hires a consultant to help with falling sales and the consultant predicts that sales will fall further before improving and then Sales continue to fall for three years, and the CEO fires the consultant.

what is a smoke screen? and where is it used?

A smoke screen is a cloud of smoke created to conceal military operations or to obscure, confuse, or mislead someone's real intentions or activities¹. It is commonly used by the military to mask the movement or location of military units such as infantry, tanks, aircraft, or ships⁵. Smoke screens can be deployed either by a canister (such as a grenade) or generated by a vehicle (like a tank or a warship) ⁵. Smoke screens can also be used to describe something that hides the truth about a person's actions or intentions³⁶.

politician and religion how do they abuse it'll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better?

Politicians and religious leaders may use the "It'll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better" fallacy to justify their actions or policies. They may claim that a difficult situation, such as an economic downfall or social unrest, is necessary before things can improve but however, it is important to critically evaluate these claims and to look for evidence to support them