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class="hfeed site" id="page"> Home Facebook-f Twitter Youtube Search Close The following posts are written by contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of ZitoBox. $4.5m Of These Rewards Have Already Been Paid $4.5m Already Paid Start With $10 Free - Coupon Code: TV PLAY NOW PLAY NOW PLAY NOW PLAY NOW The following posts are written by contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of ZitoBox. November 21, 2022 US economy: Bank of America fund manager survey shows most are betting on stagflation ahead Yet for now, the professional investing class will need to see more conclusive evidence of a benign shift in the economic trajectory before changing their defensive positioning across the beaten-up world of stocks and bonds.
“Central banks will overtighten and push economies into moderate recession, but will stop hiking – before they have done enough to get inflation all the way down to target – as the damage from rate hikes becomes clearer,” said Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock.
Ms Li sees a US growth slowdown, earnings downgrades and elevated price pressures, justifying the firm’s underweight positions in developed-market equities and bonds, though it is ready to put some cash back into corporate credit.
Rates debate intensifies Her stance is backed by investors at Bank of America, who overwhelmingly see stagflation on the horizon. Read also : Letting agent who stole nearly €70,000 in tenant deposits gets suspended sentence . The bank’s latest survey shows investors are historically underweight equities – with tech-share positioning the lowest since 2006 – and overweight cash.
The pessimism contrasts with a bout of ebullience sparked by last week’s US inflation report suggesting price pressures may be peaking. That is intensifying the debate about whether the Fed has room to moderate the pace of interest rate rises.
The latter was summarily dismissed by a parade of monetary officials last week. Among the most hawkish, St Louis Fed president James Bullard said policymakers should increase interest rates to at least to 5 per cent to 5.25 per cent to curb inflation.
That came after San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly said a pause in the rate rising cycle was “off the table”, while Kansas City Fed president Esther George warned the Fed could find it increasingly difficult to tame inflation without causing a recession.
As rate rises spark bear markets in stocks and bonds, the Fed has gone from a friend in the bull times to a newfound foe. And no dovish policy pivot looks likely soon. Citi, for one, is touting the idea of the “Powell Push”, with the Jerome Powell-led central bank forced into growth-sapping rate increases on still-raging inflation ahead.
“We classify the environment as stagflationary,” Citi strategist Alex Saunders said.
He recommends selling US equities and credit, and buying commodities and bonds in a Powell Push scenario.
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