Notes

The Art of Outright Tennis Betting_ Lesson 5: The Surface
One of the great advantages of tennis, in terms of betting as much as viewing, is the use of different surfaces at different ATP Tour events.


In general, 65 events are divided between clay, clay, and hard courts. The majority of the events (37) are played on faster and harder surfaces, with clay (21) being the next most used. The grass court season ((6)) is now restricted to a few events in June/July.


What this often highlights amongst the players is a difference in ability, a variety of performance and often a mismatch of styles. For example, if a natural clay-courter plays an opponent considered as a 'hard-court player' on a slow dirt surface then we all know who is going to win. But, if you put the same players on a faster, bumpier surface, it's the hard-court performer who wins.


These situations are easy to exploit in match betting, but they can also be used when we look at tournament betting.


Bookmakers often give undue credit to (a) well ranked players (b) recent tour winners or (c) players generally in good form. This doesn't always consider the surface being used. So, you might be in excellent form on clay, but this week we're on grass!


Astute tennis traders should be able to spot these situations - on the one hand, discounting players in the draw who aren't suited to the surface but, on the other, locating those who can be expected to significantly up their performance (simply because of the particular type of court in use).


Example: Lleyton Hewitt (Halle 2010) WON 14/1


Hewitt's career record (537:188) shows a 74% winning ratio on all surfaces. However, concentrate purely on grass and his 98:23 record actually shows the Aussie winning 81% of his matches. This surface, being used for the Gerry Weber event in Germany, was statistically Hewitt's best surface. Dewavegas login He'd also played in the final of six grass court tournaments prior to this event ... and won all six. https://hartingtongolf.com/finding-the-best-online-poker-sites/ He was in moderate form going into the grass court season. A return to the "green stuff" saw him win a 7th title at a highly inflated price.


Don't forget to credit a player for their form on the court surface and not for the success they have had on other courts. Certainly players can 'carry over' their form from one to another but generally speaking, even amongst the very top performers, you'll find significant differences in ability (and so opportunities to exploit).
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