Notes

Key Intelligence in the particular Undiscovered Country
This presentation will not reflect the particular opinions of the Defense Intelligence Agency or the U. S. Department regarding Defense.

Consider to get a moment the phrases of William William shakespeare who characterized our own fear of the future in Hamlet. Hamlet tells us that will it is far better to suffer the ills of the working day than to travel to the Undiscovered Nation.

"The undiscovered nation, from whose paid for no traveler comes back, puzzles the will, besides making us rather bear those ills we certainly have than travel to others that all of us know not of" Hamlet is just not revealing a have no fear of declining, but of not necessarily knowing what lay ahead. Having been declaring it is typically the future we fear. In addition to a planet so characterized by violent change, its easy to understand why so many are unsettled by the future. Historical company accounts generally show typically the feeling numerous inhabitants was the similar in the Renaissance and in the Age of Enlightenment.

Right now I would enjoy to share using you another eyesight for the future. In this specific scene you can find a couple of children playing within the sand. They will be arguing over just how the sand castle should be constructed. In the history one can get a massive tidal influx. It is one hundred feet high plus stretches as much as the eye is able to see. The roar is deafening, and even yet the children retain arguing, unaware of the coming future.

Which is what the potential future looks like to us. We are at first of a fundamental restructuring of world and most of people are asleep at the wheel or worse yet, so involved in our daily activity that we all can't view it approaching.

I'd like to talk for some sort of few minutes about the future and precisely what it means for intellect and national protection. I think the ideal way to tackle this subject will be in four pieces:
1. Are usually existing environment of switch?
2. What does this kind of Undiscovered Country search like?
3. What is the future context of National Security?, and
4. What brains capabilities will we require for National Safety?

Let's talk about the current climate of change first. A few years before I was leading a Space Architecture Research for the National Safety measures Space Office. The particular work was meant to consider precisely how space would run 20-25 years into the future. Someone commented in my experience that nothing we all do would alter; that we had space capabilities of which we have recently been working on that long that still have not recently been fielded.

I believed for a moment to be able to consider what in fact had changed within just that time period:

1. Zero Gps System -- a capability of which is not only a pillar of our own military force discharge; but the essential factor of a global overall economy.
2. No cellular phones A technologies which most can't do without. (no text messaging)
3. No Internet or at least no World Wide Web. I may have to explain to you the amount worldwide connectivity has evolved the planet.
4. Twenty-five years ago presently there were also no more laptop computers, cameras, cable TV, Dvd disks, hybrid cars, or perhaps MP3 players. The particular list is nearly countless.

The importance involving these changes is definitely that not anymore is technologies only a solution in order to a problem; but it is actually altering how an inhabitants of this world think and behave. But change is in fact, even more essential. Societies are actually restructuring as a result of changes brought about simply by technology. For typically the next few many years, national security efforts will have to operate found in this context.

In the United Says, as in many other places in the world, we now have moved from agrarian structured societies to professional ones to right now information based modern society. Shrinking work devices, decentralization, distributed media outlets, rapid re-capitalization, customized products, short product life, etc . All these modifications would be the hallmarks of a knowledge-based culture.

** We are getting a "Service Based" society. Is that will a negative thing? If it is an individual equate services to McDonalds. But remember services also consist of doctors, scientists, engineers, writers, printers, software developers, and so forth Information will become typically the currency of typically the future.

We are lifestyle in an occasion while we are witnessing a crash of the establishments and civilization many of us have known. We have been also lucky being witness to typically the civilization that is arising. This fundamental change is causing frictions within this country and even higher frictions throughout the particular world. It is likely to do so for decades yet to be able to come.

THE UNDOCUMENTED COUNTRY

Let's today turn our attention from our present-day changing society to the future. When chaotic change is the nature of modern day society than can we say in regards to the future? What can we say about trends for the future? Why don't take a look at just some sort of few future developments.

1. Future Pattern. Societies will carry on and integrate globally. Even though the majority of information-enabled societies will integrate well, there may be a clash of cultures with extremist societies empowered by the global transportation and details flow. This battle is very most likely going to turn out to be with us for decades. Also, many nations around the world are going by means of periods of industrialization in addition to a lesser-developed state and as a result more inclined to nationalism. These are exacerbated of outside influence. Economic engagement (often seen as intrusion) into these places is a source involving friction.

2 . not Foreseeable future Trend. Climate Alter will stress international resources. Impoverished places will feel the consequences of global climate change in crop failures, misery, infectious diseases, bulk population movements, plus water shortages. While governments are not able to manage these types of conditions, are going to ready for revolutions, social upheavals, and terrorism. I want in order to put a caveat within the issue associated with global climate change. While the affects of global environment change are very likely to be tough; especially for susceptible nation-states; they could be somewhat mitigated for the world while a whole by technology. It is because of this that We would be hesitant to be too fantastic a predictor of gloom concerning worldwide climate change.

The basic problem with the majority of predictions is of which they make a critical and generally false assumption that will things will keep on as they are usually.

A classic example of this problem took place about 110 in years past. It was the particular great horse-manure catastrophe. *

Back in 1900 London had eleven, 000 horse driven cabs and several thousands of buses, all of which in turn required 12 race horses per day, a total of more as compared to 50, 000 race horses. In addition, there were countless carts plus drays all providing goods needed with the rapidly growing populace from the world's largest city. Writing inside the Times of London, uk in 1894, 1 writer reflected the particular results of some sort of study concluding that will in 50 many years every street inside London would end up being buried under nine feet of manure. There was numerous cities which has a similar difficulty and lots of studies together with similar dire forecasts.

The problem did certainly seem intractable. The particular larger and more potent that cities became, the more horses they needed to function. The even more horses, the greater manure. Moreover, these horses had to always be stabled, which utilized up ever-larger places of increasingly beneficial land. And since the amount of horses increased, a lot more land had to be dedicated to producing hay to be able to feed them and this had to end up being brought into towns and distributed by horse-drawn vehicles. Urban civilization was bound. Well I think we all recognize the story from in this article. Henry Ford used assembly line creation techniques to typically the automobile. The crisis was averted. Record has shown that necessity is nonetheless mom of innovation. And in many cases now, all of us are seeing enviroment friendly" products in vast numbers plus environmental issues are really rank "third" about the list of most important issues in the future presidential election.

In case I would be to predict anything about the ongoing future of global climate change; it would become that the danger of it may drive a new technology revolution that will surpasses the latest revolution in telecommunications. That said, I do believe we can even now expect some stressing of global resources to support those places that are especially vulnerable to climate change.

3. Foreseeable future trend. Additional info will certainly experience an innovation found in new environmental and even related technologies launched into society. These types of include alternative technology for production involving power, food, water, construction, transportation and a host of some other necessities. These technology will be developed in line with the fear involving global climate transform, global telecommunications, monetary pressures, aging masse and the desire for better quality involving life.

4. Foreseeable future trend. Population alpage. There was a time when one was created, lived, in addition to died within a new 50-mile radius. I think anyone that has occupied the US knows of which this is certainly no extended the case. We see world migration developments that the show movement of men and women from developing societies to developed communities in search associated with the life. Family members of the forthcoming will be spread over continents impacting the particular concept of family members and relationships involving nation states.

(The great horse-manure problems. Stephen Davies, senior citizen lecturer in background at Manchester City University in England. )

5. Foreseeable future trend. The citizenry involving the Earth : particularly industrialized nations has moved by large families to small ones. These nations are getting older. For example, inside Japan the average age will end up being 50 with the season 2020. A number of other superior industrialized countries present similar trends. Many European nations include negative growth rates. This global tendency will have impact on labor pools, tax bases, health attention, plus the development involving health related solutions. With an old global population many of us are likely to see enormous social and even economic stresses.

6. Future trend. Job movement. US Dept of Labor assessments show that 6 of the top jobs did not exist five years ago. Technical understanding is doubled each two years. And we are training future staff for jobs of which don't yet are present on technology of which has not yet been invented, in order to solve problems many of us don't even realize are problems yet.

The American worker of the upcoming will work regarding at the least 10 businesses with the age of 38. That individual may be a participant of a knowledge centered work force. Most traditional manufacturing work opportunities will continue in order to move overseas; a new byproduct of globalization. The advancements found in technology that are really driving within developing processes are a specifically important and fundamental aspect of this specific trend. For hundreds and hundreds of years culture was the major product of world. The commercial Revolution altered production and the particular work populace alongside with it because factories came directly into being and urban centers grew. In its infancy, the us acquired over 85% of its workers associated with agriculture. Today that will figure is among 1% and 2%. In Europe that number hovers at about 13%.

The identical trend is developing now as amounts of manufacturing careers shrink and the particular numbers of knowledge dependent jobs increase. Advances in robotics technologies, digital imaging, in addition to computing capabilities will be changing the manufacturing base. Less and even less people are usually working in manufacturing since robotic systems replace humans. In the particular same way the particular numbers of persons involved in agriculture decreased, so to does the numbers of individuals operating machines. Making processes known while Additive Layer Producing will allow little factories and still individuals to create one products from the fine powder associated with metal, nylon or even carbon-reinforced plastics. Even so, more and extra educated people using specialized technical skills will be needed to develop, install, and keep specialized equipment.

The evolution of typically the future "information worker" may, actually cause a new economic paradigm with a small number of information innovators, frontrunners, and workers producing the majority of society's wealth. Exactly what happens to typically the rest of us all?

7. Future Craze Ubiquitous Sensors. Miniaturized sensors are getting pervasive in society, particularly industrialized nations around the world. Governments and companies alike use sensors to mange general public transportation, track item delivery, manage warehouse and store inventories, regulate public resources, provide public wellness and safety, define environmental conditions, in addition to secure property.

eight. Future Trend Damage of Nationalism. Typically the US and other advanced "information based" societies will experience a degrading idea in nationalism. We were amazed to see a recent research that surveyed associates of "Gen Y" on friendships. Typically the study showed Gen Y made little distinction between on the web friends and types they see about a regular basis. What a deep situation: "Our kids view their associates all over the world the equivalent way they discover friends every single day. very well This trend together with global migration patterns one asks "what does this mean for the concept of the nation state today, and two generations from now? With regard to America, the idea of a state state, as we know that is crumbling and that we are in for several extraordinary changes inside a very short while.

Another factor driving a car the loss regarding nationalism will be the expansion in Internet. The speed of Internet increases approximately 12 several weeks. There is no theoretical limit to be able to this trend. The particular increase in speed is allowing increasingly more information to get shared. This increase will permit people in order to maintain an electronic global presence sharing 3D real time video, massive data, in addition to globally connected control. In decades in order to come we will certainly reach a point where the people will be completely integrated. Societies can be come cheaply, legally, socially, and even politically intertwined. Education and scientific understanding will become worldwide available.
9. Long term Trend "Loss with the Masses. " Now i'm not quite positive what to call this particular trend but it is perhaps the foundation of change that is occurring globally. Each of our society used to be one characterised by masses: advertising, mass production, size industrialization, and size movements.

Mass multimedia can be a term utilized to denote the media designed in order to reach an extremely large audience such as the population of any nation condition. The phrase was coined inside the 1920s with typically the advent of nationwide radio networks, mass-circulation papers and magazines, though mass media (like publications and manuscripts) have been present centuries prior to the term started to be common.

Gone will be the concept regarding "Mass" as one point in the distribution of knowledge. A much more accurate term will be "public media" exactly where Internet has opened up communications to every individual through digital media and print media to incorporate:
? Broadcasting, in the small sense, for radio station and television.
? Various types of discs, tapes, digital storage devices.
? Film
? Personal blogs, web casts, and even podcasts, for media, music, speech, and even video
? Mobile wise phones
? Traveling with a laptop, iPods, Galaxy Tab, etc.
? On demand publishing -books, magazines, plus newspapers.
? Massive Variable Play on-line games PlayStation 3, Xbox 360 console, and Wii.

Everyone can publish supplies to every one of these marketing communications media leveling the playing field together with corporate media giants. I suspect we will also see typically the same "de-massification" styles in unions, foi, education, politics, and so forth. Since the means regarding global communications and production increases as a result too does the particular ability for self-expression and individualism. As a result, the long run will characteristic small groups connecting together for the specific cause ahead of going their personal way again. Improved telecommunications and mass media production is typically the key for enabling this trend.

Typically the impacts of Web and expanding global telecommunications infrastructure and even technology are difficult to predict. Only now are many of us witnessing the effects of instantaneous open public communications on politics institutions. Nations plus non government businesses will grapple to be able to control regional plus global communications in order to limit, manipulate, or even direct the popular will of individuals. Limiting Internet will certainly prove exceedingly tough as global marketing communications becomes inextricably built-in to economic well being.

Manufacturing too is becoming sent out or "de-massified". Electronic digital imaging, Computer Assisted Design, and innovative robotics allows for machines to convert to be able to different product outlines allowing for short manufacturing runs. This ability allows for a small factory to generate brief run multiple catalog at minimal price. The extreme regarding this process will be 3-D printing allowing for individuals to make items in home. In years to come consumers will benefit through affordable tailored product or service lines.

FUTURE CIRCUMSTANCE FOR NATIONAL SAFETY

Okay, those are usually just a couple of trends that usually are on the distance. Now let's consider for a min the impact involving these trends on national security.

Many of us are going to be able to operate within a dramatically different environment next we do right now. The society all of us know will be different; likely using different perspectives plus probably different (and multiple) value systems as well. The same will be true for many nations drawn into globalization.

Our concept of what it means to "defend ourselves" decades coming from now may be dramatically totally different from what it is today. With globalization quickly moving, defending a nation state may become an exercise even more in cyber warfare, global policing capabilities, nation building and support, small unit combat operations, and exerting diplomatic, politics, and economic impact.

With this foreseeable future at heart certain circumstances will exist because critical aspects regarding our National Safety.

Cyber Security Web security will be needed not just for military or authorities operations but regarding the national economic system at the same time. In many years to come, the majority of the U. S. economy can rely on Internet. No single element of country wide infrastructure offers the greater vulnerability. website combined along with physical attacks against select facilities can cripple the Circumstance. S. economy, probably beyond recovery.

Are convinced about business, security, local, state, in addition to national government functions, etc. all occurring at literally the velocity of thought. This is exactly what the future keeps along with the World Large Web is typically the key component developing consumer and government services into each of our lives. These companies continue to increase as more business move their presence on to the World Wide Web. Less than twenty % of PEOPLE businesses are on the net now.

Some might say there is usually already a cyber battle with going in between nation states, and even between nation states and individual famous actors. The US Department of Defense alone is usually on the receiving conclusion of one billion internet attacks each time. And yet with all this activity worldwide doctrine for internet warfare is while primitive as atómico doctrine in the late 1940s. How do you respond if your own country is attacked? Suppose the strike is not really lethal? Targeted against industry or even critical infrastructure? Just what amount of attribution is usually appropriate for what kind of response? The long run safely and health of cyberspace can not be over stressed for any society.

Power of the particular People. Theorists throughout international relations test to identify what factors drive international locations to war. That they attempt to answer the crucial question with what point is a population ready to risk the lives of it is sons and children in support of its countrywide interests? I advise that the developments in technology, the positive effect, and the resulting within culture and even societal structure will be altering those paradigms to some considerable level. For instance , democracy provides lost its zeal, especially in long ranking democratic societies. Men and women who do not really have to guard freedom and contencioso equality prefer residing off the achievements of those who would. The other, however, will be said for anyone eager to taste the fruits associated with democratic existence.

I know it appears difficult to imagine right now, but in the future, with much less children per family, an older human population, being fully "globalized", and facing the stresses of health care and food costs, we will locate a citizenry much less supportive involving armed conflict. Exactly the same will be legitimate in advanced developing societies with low birth rates (i. e. Europe, Japan). Those states may be more prone to go to battle for economic factors than ideological ones. So when that is usually the case, typically the preference will be to execute turmoil with almost no causalities. War may within fact become an uniquely robotic journey.

Destructive Power Going Up. For many years after WWII typically the United States and even regions of Western European countries led the planet as the nexus of scientific understanding. That situation is promoting and will proceed to do this.

Scientific and technological facilities of excellence are emerging in Far eastern Europe, China, Asia, India, Italy, and Russia. Global marketing communications has fueled the spread of medical and engineering knowledge. Along with typically the spread of scientific and engineering understanding come the capability to develop energetic explosives, chemical plus biological weapons, in addition to high-energy weapons. People and small groupings can posses the identical destructive force involving armies.

Cities vs . the Countryside. It has an argument to be made that WMD development efforts, terrorists, and insurgents can retreat to typically the countryside as pervasive sensor networks regarding the future come out in cities in addition to at border crossings.

Decision Making. The decision to go to be able to war will, even more and more, turn out to be a decentralized decision-making process. The Federal Government (President and Congress) may lose considerable decision making power to individuals, foreign governments, and even International bodies. As a result, decisions become small and macro together with a loss in power throughout the middle.

The particular U. S. can be a representative form associated with democracy. At the micro level, the dispersion (demassifying) associated with the media support by the Internet provides communication functions allowing for direct engagement between the government and even the governed. This allows for an average to be observed by millions and even exert political strain on the governing device. Our current method of representative government is not particularly suited to this kind of form of direct democracy. Actually by design the framers of the Metabolism ensured decision-making processes were slow to make certain emotions of the particular moment did not necessarily drive national insurance plan. The speed of worldwide communications will place a high levels of friction among politicians and points to as the past tries to reply to the instantaneous demands of the second option.

At the macro level, foreign governments and international physiques are taking a new greater role within national making decisions. This particular situation is correct not just for warfare, however for environmental problems, political issues, lawful decisions, economic and trade issues, organization and investment techniques, information technology standards, and so forth. Even today, there is usually great international stress against the independent action of nation states. And however processes for transnational decision-making are, in best, immature. The world continues in order to depend on diplomats, worldwide, or quasi-global bodies based upon "pre-digital age" organizational structure in addition to processes. There is definitely no construct, method, model, or simulation that understands in addition to integrates nation condition values and decision-making practices. The effect is that essential treaties and negotiating go through a time consuming and arduous process of discussion, analysis, re-negotiation, research, recommendation, and endorsement. This process often outlasts the assignments involving those subject matter specialists supporting them. With this point many of us have viewed the particular current environment regarding change, some future trends, and the particular type of environment in which national security will have to be able to be executed. Permit us finally turn our attention to be able to future national safety measures requirements.

SECRET CLEVERNESS IN THE UNDISCOVERED NATION

Intelligence at the particular Speed of Considered. For future country wide security needs, the particular most stressing cleverness requirements will be for remote-sensing methods to detect, monitor, cross-que, and define fleeting targets within real time. This kind of ability will need a worldwide network associated with sensors to find and track individuals, vehicles, chemicals, components, and emanations. Pervasive CCTV systems today present worldwide in airports, border crossings, railroads, busses, in addition to on the pavements of many metropolitan areas will be included and supported simply by powerful computers, good software agents, huge facial pattern and retina recognition data source, and communications structure. These systems will be integrated with sensors and sources detecting, identifying, in addition to characterizing spectral autographs, chemical compositions, DNA, effluents, sounds, and even more.

Precision Targeting/Precision Hit. Exquisite characterization regarding intelligence targets is going to be required for upcoming wars. We have got seen the size of hostilities move historically from the employment associated with mass armies, bulk navies, and bulk bombings to policing actions, special businesses, assassinations, and precision strike. Does this trend mean massive regional or worldwide conflicts are not possible? Of course certainly not, but those disputes have become much less likely over current decades. A one battle such while Stalingrad where 1. 5 million individuals were lost will never be representative of typically the vast majority involving future national security actions.

Global Network of Sensors. The global network of sensors will give you the ability to intervene in near real time state plus non state celebrities. This capability will certainly enable immediate authorities or combat actions requiring a worldwide occurrence (whether by solitary nation or by way of allies). Immediate precision response is possible presented the international contracts are in place. In other terms, it doesn't go good to become able to identify weapon's grade uranium or perhaps a terrorist in region A. if that government will never do anything about that. Real Predictive Intellect The future National Safety environment will demand great strides inside of predictive intelligence plus associated modeling abilities. Advanced modeling application and analytical capabilities pulling from global data (multi mass media, multi lingual) resources will do the following:
? Provide situational awareness
? Understand individual social interaction plus media influence on activities
? Calculate political balance
? Assess technology improvements

Robotics There is certainly significantly less willingness to compromise sons and daughters as advanced communities grow wealthier in addition to the family product grows smaller. It is particularly true if the reasons for armed forces action are certainly not clear and survival of the region state is not really on the line. Many foreseeable future combat actions will certainly necessarily be carried out by robots. In fact, this is certainly previously occurring. Nevertheless the foreseeable future will see robots employed in large numbers providing discrete reconnaissance, unattended (and manned), pervasive monitoring, combat support, and security functions. These kinds of intelligence missions will require expanded communications, advanced processing features for target elegance, and mems technological innovation for miniature structures, sensors, actuators, and even microelectronics.

Scientific in addition to Technical Intelligence Maybe one of the greatest challenges for Intelligence Services could be the "demassification" of medical knowledge. Of training course, the planet as a new whole is almost certainly better off having technological knowledge pervasive throughout societies. However, the particular downside towards the demassification of the planet's scientific knowledge could be the near pervasive ability to create weapons regarding mass destruction, linked delivery systems, technology advanced reconnaissance devices and new years of weapons.

get more info of Intelligence Love much of social structure and companies Intelligence Services can continue to "demassify" inside their collection features. Collecting a country's secrets is going to be essential. But increasingly so too will end up being the capacity to acquire thousands of signals from open supply documents, global sensors, and physical phenomena to find out a country's true intentions. Typically the greatest challenges for those intelligence providers will be inside the integration, fermage, and analysis regarding vast amounts of data. "Smart software" is definitely the wave of the future.

Cyber Watch I wrote inside the mid nineties that China's cleverness services had spent heavily in internet capabilities to get information. In last year, the US Countrywide Counter-intelligence Executive affirmed this conclusion enumerating China and Russian federation as the earth's two most working players in internet espionage. I see this trend simply accelerating.

SUMMARY
The particular Undiscovered Country will certainly be one seen as a turbulence and uncertainness. For the next few decades Cleverness Services will always be stressed as they try to adjust to global changing atmosphere.
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