Notes

About earlier, I know I offended someone, and they should be. But they shouldn't hear it in the first place. I'm simply fighting for myself, my assumption is that everyone that knows that girl from yesterday, in one way or another, probably is helping her. Is that a bad assumption to make? No, right. So, of course, I would have raised my suspicion higher to anyone whose related to her in any way. It's a simple precaution.

Logically, think of it this way. If you lost a 100 bucks and the last time you remember seeing it was in your wallet, where your wallet has never left your bedroom. Is it a bad assumption to assume that the money you lost, is probably still around in your bedroom. No, it's a very good assumption to make. There is a higher probability that it is still in your bedroom right? Compare to your kitchen, for example, although likely too, it is not as likely as your bedroom because in there you saw it last. So what you do here is you're making an assumption, and in making your assumption you're shrinking your 'search space'. If you're making a good assumption then there is a higher probability of being correct. Meaning that you're correct that it is still indeed in your bedroom. But there is no way of confirming this, until you found it, right? This is basically Machine Learning, in a way. So me assuming that everyone that knows that girl from yesterday was helping her in one way or another. Is not a bad assumption to make, right? Of course, I could get it wrong. But there is less likely chance of being wrong than say if I assume all my friends are actually helping that girl from yesterday. Now that is a stupid assumption to make, right? Although not likely, it could be true, but it has a less probability than the former assumption,being all her friends helping her. The fraction of that probability can be translated as the fraction of her friends that are helping her. We don't know which friends, but overall, we could get a rough idea of how many of them. The better assumption we make, although not always correct, leads to a higher probability of being correct. If we're always correct, it is no longer a probability, it's a fact. A bad assumption is one like you lose your money in your bedroom, then somehow you go search for it in your neighbours' bathroom because you're somehow convinced that it is there. It's a silly assumption to make. And why would we go search there. But it could be there, although very very very very unlikely.