Notes

Looking at the timescale for aurora predictions, many people would like an accurate forecast at least a few weeks in advance. Unfortunately, however, there is little forecasting that can be done greater than a couple of days before hands. Forecasters can monitor sunspot activity long-term; generally more sunspots means more solar activity is occurring. This image here is an MDI Image of the suns surface taken on Wednesday. We can also look at the aurora activity from sunspots and coronal holes from 27/28 days beforehand. This is because the sun revolves around the earth once every 28 days, so if there is a strong aurora activity at the day a month beforehand and the sunspot or coronal hole remains active the probability of there being strong solar activity increases. This image here is just the past 48 hours of solar activity. However, there is no guarantee that they will remain active and can disappear as quickly as they arrive. For the days beforehand we can look at the KP index, Bz index for indicators of activity and cloud coverage and weather conditions for visibility. Cloud coverage and weather conditions can be forecast fairly accurate. As the earth has a northward facing magnetic field direction. The KP index, which measures the strength of the disturbances; a big disturbance means a strong particle filled wind. Therefore a strong southward Bz direction is needed to southward value to avoid our magnetosphere, repelling most of the particles, A southward direction means many more particles can make it through the field.