Notes

F. Stephen Larrabee, Peter A. Wilson, John Gordon IV
The Ukrainian Crisis
and European Security
Implications for the United States
and U.S. Army
C O R P O R A T I O N
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iii
Preface
This report, part of an exploratory series for the U.S. Army, is a think
piece about the strategic implications of the ongoing Ukraine-Russia
crisis for the Department of the Army. This analysis provides a first
look at some of the broader strategic implications for the U.S. Army
of the Ukrainian crisis. The report is intended to be of interest to the
military and civilian leadership within the Department of the Army.
This research was sponsored by the Department of the Army and
conducted within the RAND Arroyo Center’s Strategy and Resources
Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is
a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the
United States Army.
The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project
that produced this document is HQD146843.

v
Contents
Preface ............................................................................. iii
Summary ......................................................................... vii
Acknowledgments ............................................................. xiii
Abbreviations.................................................................... xv
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction ...................................................................... 1
CHAPTER TWO
The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis........ 3
The Annexation of Crimea....................................................... 6
The Crash of MH17 .............................................................. 8
The Minsk Agreement ........................................................... 9
The October Parliamentary Elections ......................................... 10
The Bumpy Road Ahead ........................................................ 11
Pursuing Reform and Reducing Corruption ............................... 12
Meeting Energy Needs........................................................ 12
Managing Relations with Moscow .......................................... 14
CHAPTER THREE
Implications for the United States........................................... 17
U.S. and European Interests .................................................... 18
The Economic Dimension ...................................................... 19
Russia’s Pivot Toward China ................................................. 21
Constraints on U.S.-European Cooperation ............................... 23
EU-Russian Relations ........................................................... 24
vi The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
The German Factor .............................................................. 26
The NATO Factor ............................................................... 28
Reassuring Eastern Europe ..................................................... 32
Strengthening Baltic Security................................................... 33
Defense Cooperation with Sweden and Finland ............................ 36
New Uncertainties in the Black Sea Region .................................. 37
CHAPTER FOUR
Conclusions and Implications for the U.S. Army......................... 41
Bibliography ..................................................................... 47
vii
Summary
Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex Crimea and to destabilize eastern
Ukraine has sparked widespread concern among Western policymakers
that Russia has embarked on a more confrontational policy that could
have far-reaching implications for Russia’s relations with the West and
for European stability. The annexation of Crimea challenges two basic
assumptions on which U.S. policy toward Europe in the post–Cold
War era has been based: (1) that Europe is essentially stable and secure,
thereby freeing the United States to focus greater attention on other
areas, particularly Asia and the Middle East, and (2) that Russia had
become more of a partner than an adversary.
The annexation of Crimea suggests that both these assumptions
need to be revisited. Europe has returned front and center on the U.S.
policy agenda. This means that the United States will have to find a
new balance among competing priorities in Europe, the Middle East,
and Asia. After the annexation of Crimea and the military effort to
destabilize eastern Ukraine, Russia can hardly be viewed as a partner.
The United States will thus have to reexamine the basic premises on
which its Russian policy is based as it seeks to adjust to dealing with a
more nationalistic and assertive Russia.
This report will present the major events and circumstances surrounding
the Ukrainian crisis and briefly discuss their importance,
then conclude with observations on the possible implications for the
U.S. Army. This report does not present concrete recommendations for
action, but rather considerations for those charged with planning the
size, posture, and composition of the Army.
viii The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
Ukraine’s Strategic Importance for Russia
At its core, the current crisis in Ukraine is about Ukraine’s future strategic
orientation—whether Kiev will be allowed to choose its own
independent foreign policy or be compelled to remain within the Russian
sphere of influence. Ukraine’s future orientation will also influence
Russia’s long-term geostrategic orientation and political path. Without
Ukraine, as Zbigniew Brzezinski has pointed out, Russia ceases to be
a Eurasian empire. However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine,
Russia automatically again regains the wherewithal to become an
imperial state, spanning Europe and Asia.
In addition, Ukraine poses an important potential politicalideological
threat to Putin’s model of authoritarian state capitalism. A
stable, independent, democratically oriented Ukraine on Russia’s western
border with close ties to Europe and the West represents an attractive
alternative model to Putin’s attempt to establish “managed democracy”
in Russia and the rest of the post-Soviet space. From Putin’s point
of view, the real danger is contagion—that Russian citizens might begin
to agitate for a similar, more open system in Russia. Putin has sought
to weaken and discredit the government in Kiev, portraying it as composed
of “fascists” and “neo-Nazis.”
Reassuring Eastern Europe
The Russian annexation of Crimea and the attempt to destabilize eastern
Ukraine have made Poland and the Baltic countries very nervous
and prompted calls for NATO to station combat forces in Eastern
Europe and the Baltic states. Against the background of this increasing
clamor for additional troops, NATO approved plans for the creation
of a 4,000-man rapid reaction force. Plans call for a portion of
this force to have an essentially permanent presence in Eastern Europe,
with the remainder of the force able to be dispatched to trouble spots in
the region within 48 hours. This upgraded force is intended to be the
spearhead of a much larger rapid reaction force designed to enhance
Summary ix
NATO’s ability to effectively carry out crisis management missions in
regions far from NATO members’ capitals.
Strengthening the Security of the Baltic States
The question of how to ensure the security of the Baltic states also
has emerged as a critical security issue in the debate. President Putin’s
annexation of Crimea and covert and overt attempt to destabilize
eastern Ukraine have generated fears in the Baltic states that Russia
could take steps designed to weaken their independence and territorial
integrity. While an overt Russian attack against the Baltic states is
highly unlikely, there are reasons for concern, given Putin’s emphasis
on Russia’s responsibility to defend the rights of the Russian minority
abroad. Thus, in the aftermath of the annexation of Crimea and Russia’s
attempt to destabilize eastern Ukraine by overt military means,
greater attention needs to be focused on enhancing the security of the
Baltic states.
A New Model in Russian Military Thinking
In addition, Russia’s military actions in Crimea and in the Ukrainian
crisis demonstrated a new model of Russian military thinking, combining
traditional instruments of Russian military thought with a new
emphasis on surprise, deception, and strategic ambiguity. This model
enables Russia to disguise its real intentions and conduct an “invasion
by stealth.” Countries such as the Baltic states and Moldova, which are
on Russia’s periphery and home to large ethnic Russian minorities, are
worried that they could be the targets of this new Russian approach to
warfare. In the future, NATO is likely to face Russian aggression that
relies on approaches and techniques associated with Russia’s low-cost
annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of eastern Ukraine.
x The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
New Uncertainties in the Black Sea Region
The annexation of Crimea has shifted the military balance in the Black
Sea region more strongly in Russia’s favor and significantly increased
Russia’s strategic footprint in the region. The expansion of the Black
Sea Fleet will strengthen Russia’s ability to project power in the region
and raises important questions about how Russia will use that power.
Many Western officials worry that Moldova could come under increasing
pressure if Putin is successful in destabilizing eastern Ukraine.
Putin’s Increasing Commitment to the Pro-Russian
Separatists
Since the downing of the MH17 commercial airliner in July 2014,
Russia has increased weapon deliveries to the pro-Russian rebels, as
well as the firepower of those weapons. This military support and direct
engagement in the conflict has succeeded in turning the military tide
of the battle in the separatists’ favor—and raised the pressure on President
Petro Poroshenko to agree to a fragile cease-fire that leaves two
key cities, Donetsk and Luhansk, in the hands of the “rebel” forces.
Implications for the U.S. Army
The Ukrainian crisis has three key implications for the U.S. Army.
First, the assumption by the U.S. national security leadership that
Europe had become a strategically quiet zone in Eurasia and that the
United States could shift its attention to other regions, especially Asia
and the Middle East, has been overturned. Europe will play a more
important role in U.S. national security strategy in the coming decade,
not a lesser one.
Second, if NATO now has to build a much more robust deterrence
and defense posture in Eastern Europe, the Army and Air Force
will need to revisit their planning assumptions, which have minimized
Summary xi
U.S. military commitments to that region since the end of the Cold
War.
Third, when added to the steady or growing demands for U.S.
military deployments and activities elsewhere (e.g., East Asia, the
Middle East, Africa), the more uncertain security environment in
Europe argues for a reappraisal of the balance between the requirements
of U.S. defense strategy and the resources available to support
it. Put simply, many elements of the joint force are being stretched
thin through attempts to meet new commitments that were not foreseen
even as recently as January 2014, when the Quadrennial Defense
Review completed its work and the FY 2015 budget submission went
forward.
Finally, it is important to note that several of the considerations
put forward in this report, such as increasing the U.S. military’s posture
in Europe, involve political risks that are beyond the scope of
this document to address. Furthermore, we offer no judgment on the
wisdom of increased investments in defense to address the increased
uncertainty and risk in Europe in the context of the overall U.S. fiscal
situation for similar reasons. Rather, we note that the status quo that
existed when the most recent defense strategy documents were produced
has changed, and therefore a reexamination of commitments,
both in terms of forces in Europe and defense outlays, is in order.

xiii
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to express their thanks to RAND colleague
Terry Kelley and to our peer reviewers, James Dobbins, Robert Nurick
(of the Atlantic Council), and David Ochmanek, for their helpful comments
on an earlier draft of this manuscript.

xv
Abbreviations
A&D aerospace and defense
EU European Union
GDP gross domestic product
MAP Membership Action Plan
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
PfP Partnership for Peace
SAM surface-to-air missile

1
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex Crimea and to destabilize eastern
Ukraine has sparked widespread concern among Western policymakers
that Russia has embarked on a more confrontational policy that
could have far-reaching implications for Russia’s relations with the
West and for European stability.
The annexation of Crimea challenges two basic assumptions on
which U.S. policy toward Europe in the post–Cold War era has been
based: (1) that Europe is essentially stable and secure, thereby freeing
the United States to focus greater attention on other areas, particularly
Asia and the Middle East, and (2) that Russia had become more of
a partner than an adversary. The annexation of Crimea suggests that
both these assumptions need to be revisited. Europe has returned front
and center on the U.S policy agenda, and Russia can hardly be considered
an ally, having blatantly violated one of the basic principles established
by the Helsinki Final Act in 1975—that European borders shall
not be changed by force.
This report examines the causes and implications of the Ukrainian
crisis, which began in November 2013 with Ukrainian President
Viktor Yanukovych’s decision, taken under strong Russian pressure,
not to sign the Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement, and
key events and conditions that followed in 2014. It concludes with
observations on the possible implications for U.S. policy and the U.S.
military, particularly the U.S. Army. This document does not present
concrete recommendations for action, but rather considerations for
2 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
those charged with planning the size, posture, and composition of the
Army.
The report is divided into four chapters. Chapter Two examines
the geopolitical roots of the Ukrainian crisis, with particular attention
to Russian perspectives and policy. Why was Russia so concerned by
Ukraine’s decision to sign the Ukraine–European Union Association
Agreement? What were Russia’s key concerns and objections to the
agreement? What does this imply for future relations with the West,
especially the United States?
Chapter Three discusses the implications for the United States.
What impact is the crisis likely to have on U.S. policy? Particular attention
is paid to the impact on the EU and its “post-modern” agenda, the
future of NATO, and America’s role in Europe.
The final chapter focuses on the implications for the U.S. Army.
What does the Ukrainian crisis imply for the future role of the Army?
What should be its main concerns and priorities in the coming decade?
What needs to change? Why? In what way?
3
CHAPTER TWO
The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the
Ukrainian Crisis
At its core, the current crisis is about Ukraine’s future strategic
orientation—whether Kiev will be allowed to freely choose its own
independent foreign policy or will be compelled to remain within Russia’s
sphere of influence. Ukraine’s future orientation will also influence
Russia’s long-term geostrategic orientation and political path. Without
Ukraine, as Zbigniew Brzezinski has pointed out, Russia ceases to be
a Eurasian empire.1 However, if Moscow regains control over Ukraine,
Russia automatically regains the wherewithal to become an imperial
state, spanning Europe and Asia.
In addition, Ukraine poses an important potential politicalideological
threat to Putin’s model of authoritarian state capitalism. A
stable, independent, democratically oriented Ukraine on Russia’s western
border with close ties to Europe and the West represents an attractive
alternative model to Putin’s attempt to establish “managed democracy”
in Russia and the rest of the post-Soviet space. From Putin’s point
of view, the real danger is contagion—that Russian citizens might begin
to agitate for a similar more open system in Russia. Hence, Putin has
sought to weaken and discredit the government in Kiev, portraying it
as composed of “fascists” and “neo-Nazis.”
Ukraine also has a special importance to Moscow because of its
close links to Russia in the defense field. Russia is highly dependent
on Ukraine’s aerospace and defense (A&D) industry. Approximately
1 Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard, New York: Basic Books, 1997, p. 46.
4 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
30 percent of Ukraine’s military exports to Russia cannot currently
be substituted by Russian domestic production.2 If Ukraine stops its
sale of key subsystems, Russia will have to make costly investments to
reproduce these high-technology capabilities to sustain its ambitious
modernization programs.
Russia was the third-largest buyer of Ukrainian defense-related
products from 2009 to 2013. There are some parts and services that
Russia imports only from Ukraine. For example, the Russian military
depends heavily on Motor Sich in the southeastern Ukrainian city of
Zaporizhia for helicopter engines and on the Antonov plant in Kiev for
transport planes.3 The Southern Machine Building Plant Association
(Yuzmash) in Dnipropetrovsk, which designs, manufactures, and services
rockets and missiles, is also critically important for the Russian
military. More than half of the components of Russia’s ground-based
intercontinental ballistic missile force come from Ukraine.4
Russian officials have downplayed the impact that a severing
of defense ties would have on Russia’s planned modernization program
and the general state of Russian-Ukrainian defense relations.
Although Ukrainian exports represent a small fraction—between 2
and 4 percent—of Russia’s overall military imports, many branches
of the Russian military would suffer without these parts and services.
The Russian defense industry would experience a shortage of essential
components, and weapon systems integral to Russia’s strategic nuclear
forces could be compromised without regular Ukrainian servicing.5
A severing of defense contracts with Russia would have an
even more severe impact on Ukraine and could lead to the collapse
of some of Ukraine’s defense firms in the southern and eastern parts
2 See Igor Sutyagin and Michael Clarke, “Ukraine Military Dispositions—the Military
Ticks Up While the Clock Ticks Down,” RUSI Briefing Paper, April 2014, for a description
of the unique dependence the Russia Armed Forces have on high-technology Ukrainian
A&D production.
3 Alexandra McLees and Eugene Rumer, “Saving Ukraine’s Defense Industry,” Carnegie
Endowment for Peace, July 30, 2014, p. 2.
4 McLees and Rumer, 2014, p. 2.
5 McLees and Rumer, 2014, p. 2.
The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis 5
of the country, exacerbating economic problems and creating a large
pool of unemployed highly skilled nuclear specialists who might be
tempted to find employment in rogue states or with other international
proliferators.6
Additionally, Ukraine is important for the development of Putin’s
plans to create a Eurasian Union. Without it, the union has little
chance of success. Russian concern that Ukraine’s conclusion of the
Association Agreement with the EU would preclude Kiev from joining
the Eurasian Union was an important catalyst for the initiation of
the current crisis. President Yanukovych’s last-minute refusal—under
heavy Russian pressure—to sign the Association Agreement with the
EU touched off massive spontaneous protests on the Maidan—the site
of the protests that sparked the Orange Revolution and brought President
Viktor Yushchenko to power in December 2004.
The increased violence and the attacks by the security forces on
the protesters resulted in a precipitous loss of support for Yanukovych
within his own Party of Regions. His subsequent ouster in midFebruary
2014 set off alarm bells in the Kremlin because it left a highly
unstable power vacuum in Ukraine that pro-Western and nationalist
forces began to fill. The political upheaval in Ukraine threatened to
deal a severe blow to Putin’s hope of drawing Ukraine back into the
Russian orbit and using the Eurasian Union as a vehicle for increasing
Russian influence in the post-Soviet space. A pro-Western Ukraine
closely tied to Europe would alter the strategic balance in Central
Europe and pose a significant obstacle to Putin’s goal of reestablishing
Russia as a Eurasian power. It also would increase the possibility of
Ukrainian membership in NATO—Russia’s strategic nightmare.
6 Helping the Ukraine A&D industries transition toward a more globalized marketplace
should be high on any Atlantic Alliance agenda of providing Ukraine with broader financial
and economic assistance.
6 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
The Annexation of Crimea
Putin’s annexation of Crimea caught the United States and its European
allies by surprise. However, the swiftness and efficiency with
which it was carried out suggests that contingency plans for such an
operation had been worked out well in advance. The annexation, from
start to finish, took less than two weeks and was accomplished with a
minimum of bloodshed and loss of life—a remarkable achievement.
The military seizure of the region was skillfully camouflaged. Russian
troops were clandestinely infiltrated into Ukraine in unmarked
uniforms. The troops were able to take over Ukrainian barracks and
outposts without firing a shot. By the time the West was aware that
Crimea was under attack, it was too late to organize an effective military
response. Key Ukrainian outposts and installations were already
in Russian hands.
The annexation was greatly facilitated by the fact that the Ukrainian
armed forces stationed in Crimea were under strict orders from
the Ukrainian government not to take military action against the Russian
forces, to avoid escalating the violence and provoking a broader
and harsher intervention by Russia.
In effect, Crimea represented a new form of “hybrid warfare”—a
skillful mixture of overt military measures and covert action, combined
with an aggressive use of propaganda and disinformation carefully
calculated to avoid crossing established thresholds for military
response. By deploying special operation forces in unmarked uniforms,
Putin was able to sow enough confusion and doubt to prevent effective
countermeasures from being taken.
Public support for the annexation among the ethnic Russian population
in Crimea was strong. Ethnic Russians, who make up 60 percent
of the peninsula’s population, voted overwhelmingly for the incorporation
of Crimea into Russia in the referendum held on March 18,
2014. This strong popular support gave the annexation a superficial
veneer of international legitimacy.
However, the annexation of Crimea is likely to entail substantial
economic and political costs, many of which do not seem to have
been considered or well understood at the time the decision to annex
The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis 7
Crimea was made. The annexation has had a negative impact on virtually
every aspect of farming in Crimea, from credit to irrigation.7
Buyers from big international grain firms, such as Cargill and Dreyfus,
avoid Crimea because of the Western boycott of its products. In addition,
in April 2014 Ukraine shut off the spigot for the main irrigation
canal, depriving the peninsula of water essential for many crops. With
Ukrainian banks closed, farmers have had trouble getting credit for
seed and fertilizer.
The tourist industry, the backbone of Crimea’s economy, has also
suffered. Tourism in 2014 was down by 30–35 percent. Hotels and
restaurants have begun declining credit cards, creating difficulties for
many tourists, while major banks fear sanctions and are reluctant to
do business in Crimea. Meanwhile, the costs of developing Crimea’s
economy have continued to mount. Rather than a lucrative tourist
attraction, Crimea threatens to become a major drain on the Russian
economy.
The popularity of the annexation of Crimea in Russia—and the
ease with which it was achieved—may have encouraged Putin to believe
that eastern Ukraine could be destabilized via some of the same methods
and tactics that were employed in Crimea. However, the political,
cultural and demographic situation in eastern Ukraine differs significantly
from that in Crimea. The majority of Crimea’s population is
composed of ethnic Russians who wanted to rejoin Russia. Thus, Putin
could count on strong public support for annexing Crimea.
The situation in eastern Ukraine is quite different. The majority
of Ukraine’s population is composed of ethnic Ukrainians, whose
primary language is Russian. They favor close ties to Russia, but they
do not want to join Russia or be independent of Ukraine. Thus, Putin
could not count on the overwhelming support of the local population
as he could in Crimea.
In eastern Ukraine, Russia employed some of the same tactics that
it had used in Crimea and in Georgia in 2008. Russia massed troops
along the Ukrainian-Russian border and conducted exercises along the
7 Neal MacFarqhuar, “Aid Elusive, Crimea Farms Face Hurdles,” New York Times, July 8,
2014.
8 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
border. This was a transparent attempt to exert psychological pressure
on Ukraine. But it also kept the Russian troops in a state of high readiness
in case they actually had to be deployed in combat missions.
The Crash of MH17
The shooting down of a Malaysian commercial airliner, MH17, on
July 17, 2014, which resulted in the death of 298 innocent passengers,
unexpectedly complicated Putin’s game plan of covert intervention.
While a final judgment regarding responsibility for the downing of the
aircraft will have to await the results of an independent international
inquiry, there is strong, perhaps overwhelming, evidence that the plane
was shot down by a surface-to-air missile (SAM) fired from separatist
territory.8
The MH17 incident sparked worldwide moral outrage and focused
international attention on Russia’s “hidden hand” in the arming, training,
and financing of the separatists. The decision to provide the rebel
forces with an advanced radar-guided SAM system, the SA-11 (aka
BUK-MI), highlights the extent of direct Russian military support for
the separatists.
However, rather than acceding to the growing international pressure
to halt support for the separatists, Putin decided to up the ante.
He stepped up support for the separatists and clandestinely deployed
several thousand Russian regular army troops in Ukraine, as well as
8 According to U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power, speaking at the UN Security Council
meeting in New York, an SA-11 missile system, which has the capability of reaching an aircraft
flying at 33,000 ft.—the altitude at which the Malaysian aircraft was flying—was spotted
in the area of the shoot-down. In addition, separatist officials had boasted on social media
of shooting down a plane on the day of the crash, apparently unaware that the target was a
civilian airliner. The postings on social media were withdrawn later in the day. See Karen
De Young, “U.S.: Plane Was Downed from Rebel-Held Area,” Washington Post, July 19,
2014. An analysis of the “black boxes” recovered from MA-17 indicates that the aircraft suffered
a catastrophic explosive decompression event, consistent with a hit by a high-explosive
fragmentation warhead of a high-performance SAM. Also see “MH-17 Crash: Investigation
Focuses on ‘25 Metal Shards,’” BBC NEWS Europe, September 12, 2014, for the results of
the Dutch analysis of the shoot down.
The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis 9
dozens of unmarked tanks, armored personnel carriers, missile launchers,
and military personnel.9 It was a bold move that was successful.
The massive covert intervention by Russian regular army troops turned
the military tide of battle and dealt a fatal blow to the Ukrainian forces,
which previously had been on the verge of routing the separatist rebels.
Putin’s decision to double down rather than bow to Western pressure
provides an important glimpse into his character: Through his
determination to maintain the upper hand, he succeeded in changing
the political dynamics on the ground and reversing the military tide
of battle. His message was clear: Push me and I will push back even
harder.
The military intervention was accompanied by important political
changes in the separatist leadership. In August, Igor Girkin (aka
Strelkov) was replaced as military commander of the Donetsk separatists.
A Russian citizen and former member of the Federal Security Service
(FSB) (the successor to the KGB), Girkin had fought in Chechnya,
Transnistria, and Bosnia and was associated with a number of nationalist
causes. His removal was part of a broader shake-up of the separatist
leadership, which included the resignation of Alexander Borodai,
prime minister of the self-declared Donetsk Peoples Republic. Girkin
and Borodai were replaced by little-known Ukrainian officials in an
attempt to stress the “Ukrainian” roots of the insurgency and downplay
the strong Russian connection.
The Minsk Agreement
The military advances made by the pro-Russian separatists at the end
of August 2014, thanks largely to the introduction of regular Russian
army units, represented a stunning reversal for the Ukrainian government.
With the separatists on the offensive and the Ukrainian forces
badly battered and demoralized, President Petro Poroshenko appears
9 Ukrainian sources estimated that the Russians sent in as many as 10,000 troops, But
NATO’s estimate of several thousand troops seems more likely. See Roman Olearchyk and
Neil Buckley, “Russian Stealth Forced Ukraine into a Ceasefire,” Financial Times, September
14, 2014.
10 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
to have felt that he had little choice but to accept the cease-fire agreement
worked out with the separatists in Minsk, the capital of Belarus,
on September 5. The 12-point peace plan contained a number of
important concessions to the separatists, including an amnesty, special
self-governing status for the territories occupied by the separatists,
and protections for the Russian language. In addition, it allowed the
separatist-controlled regions to elect their own judges, create their own
police forces, and develop deeper ties with Russia.10
Many Ukrainians fear that the agreement gives too many concessions
to the separatists. Poroshenko has defended the agreement, arguing
that it contains no concession regarding separatism or Ukraine’s
territorial integrity. In a narrow sense, this is true. The devil, however,
lies in the details, which are not spelled out in the document and will
have to be negotiated.
President Poroshenko has made clear that he is willing to grant
eastern Ukraine a degree of decentralization and local autonomy as
long as that does not infringe upon the Kiev government’s powers to
decide and implement issues of national policy. However, Putin’s plan
goes well beyond anything envisaged by Poroshenko. Putin wants a
radical restructuring of power that would turn the country into a federation
of largely autonomous regions, with de facto veto power over
membership in NATO and efforts to develop a closer political and economic
association with the EU.
The October Parliamentary Elections
The hand of the pro-European forces has been strengthened by the
results of the parliamentary elections held on October 26, 2014, which
demonstrated strong support for the pro-European forces in Ukraine.
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s People’s Front came in first
place, winning 22.2 percent of the popular vote, closely followed by
Poroshenko’s Bloc, which gained 21.8 percent of the popular vote. The
10 See Anthony Faiola, “Ukraine’s President Offers Deal to the Separatists as Truce Frays,”
Washington Post, September 16, 2014.
The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis 11
new reformist party Self-Help, led by Andriy Sadoviy, mayor of Lviv,
obtained 11 percent of the vote. Together, the three Pro-European parties
have a solid majority in parliament, giving Ukraine the most proEuropean
parliament in its history.
Former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s party, the Fatherland
Front, received 5.7 percent of the vote, just barely enough to cross the
5 percent threshold needed to secure representation in the Rada (parliament).
The party is likely to support Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko’s
parties on most issues, strengthening the pro-European orientation in
Ukrainian politics. The poor showing of the Fatherland Front suggests
that the once popular and fiery Tymoshenko no longer commands
much support among the Ukrainian electorate and is regarded as a
figure of the past.
The Opposition Bloc, the remnant of Yanukovych’s Party of
Regions, received 9.7 percent of the vote. For the first time since
Ukraine’s independence in l991, the Communist Party failed to obtain
enough votes to be represented in the Rada.
The far right and nationalist parties Right Sector and Svoboda
did poorly and failed to obtain sufficient votes to be represented in
parliament as well. Right Sector obtained only 1.6 percent of the vote.
This weak showing by the nationalist right makes it more difficult for
the Russian media to credibly claim that Ukraine is led by a cabal of
“Fascists” and “Neo-Nazis.”
The Bumpy Road Ahead
The strong showing by the pro-European forces in the October parliamentary
elections underscores the high degree of support in western
and central Ukraine for closer ties to Europe and the EU. However, the
Ukrainian government faces a difficult uphill battle to achieve internal
and external stability. Several critical challenges stand out in the period
ahead.
12 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
Pursuing Reform and Reducing Corruption
The first challenge is to implement a coherent and sustainable domestic
reform agenda. Much will depend on the ability of Prime Minister Yatsenyuk
and President Poroshenko to work together and avoid the internal
bickering and divisive rivalries that plagued reform efforts during
the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko period and contributed to the ultimate
collapse of the Orange Revolution and Yanukovych’s victory in the
February 2010 presidential election.
The key question is whether the poisonous disunity and internal
squabbles that contributed to the collapse of the Orange Revolution
will reemerge and prevent Ukraine from pursuing a coherent reform
program that will enable Kiev to forge closer ties to Europe. Poroshenko
and Yatsenyuk worked well together and cooperated closely
during the months following Putin’s annexation of Crimea. But during
the parliamentary electoral campaign, differences and signs of tension
were visible. If they continue, they could be cause for concern.
Ukraine finds itself in a highly vulnerable situation today largely
due to bad decisions by its own political leadership.11 The previous
leaders put off needed economic reforms because they feared the consequences
for their own political power and interests. Many, particularly
former president Yanukovych, put personal power and greed ahead of
the national interest.
A related challenge is posed by the rampant and widespread corruption.
Corruption reached alarming dimensions under Yanukovych.
Prime Minister Yatsenyuk has accused Yanukovych of stealing $37 billion
from the state—equal to one-fifth of Ukraine’s gross domestic
product (GDP) in 2013—during his four years in office.12
Meeting Energy Needs
Energy security represents another critical challenge. Ukraine depends
on Russia for 60 percent of its natural gas. In the Soviet period, Russia
11 See Steven Pifer, “Taking Stock in Ukraine,” The American Interest, October 28, 2014.
12 For a detailed discussion of the disruptive impact of corruption on Ukrainian economic
and social life, see Anders Aslund, “Ukraine’s Old Internal Enemy,” Wall Street Journal,
October 1, 2014.
The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis 13
kept the price artificially low, but in the past few years Ukraine has had
to pay world market prices for Russian gas. In June 2014, Russia cut
off gas supplies to Ukraine because of its failure to pay its back energy
debts. The cutoff did not have much effect on Ukraine in the warm
summer months, but with the onset of winter, Ukraine’s energy problems
may become more acute.
Ukraine has managed to stockpile 16 billion cubic meters of gas
in underground storage tanks. It needs 5 billion cubic meters of gas
beyond what it has stored to satisfy winter demands. The dispute with
Russia over gas has already forced the Ukrainian government to ration
domestically produced gas by cutting centrally provided hot water to
flats, but more drastic measures may be necessary in the future unless
the dispute with Russia over gas is quickly resolved.
A new gas agreement with Russia, brokered by the EU, was
signed at the end of October 2014. Under the terms of the agreement,
Ukraine will pay Gazprom, the Russian state-controlled energy giant,
$5.3 billion toward its outstanding debt by the end of December 2014,
using money it has borrowed from the International Monetary Fund.
In addition, Kiev will make prepayments of $1.5 billion for 4 billion
cubic meters of gas that Gazprom will provide for the remainder of
the winter, again largely drawing on Western credits. This will enable
Ukraine to obtain sufficient gas to make it through the winter.13 However,
while the gas deal with Russia resolves Ukraine’s most immediate
energy problem, the agreement represents only a temporary respite. The
gas wars between Russia and Ukraine are unlikely to end until the two
countries reach a political accommodation over eastern Ukraine.
Kiev also needs a viable energy policy. Ukraine is one of the most
energy-inefficient countries in the world and needs to reduce its high
level of energy wastage. It pays fuel subsidies equivalent to 7.5 percent
of its GDP. Its energy intensity—the ration of energy used to economic
output—is twice that of Russia and ten times the Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average.14 A
13 Christian Oliver, Jack Farchy, and Roman Olearchyk, “Moscow and Kiev Reach Deal
on Gas Flows,” Financial Times, October 31, 2014.
14 Oliver, Farchy, and Olearchyk, 2014.
14 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
reduction in subsidies and higher fuel bills are unavoidable if Ukraine
is to solve its energy problems. The Ukrainian authorities introduced
an increase in the price of gas of more than 50 percent for consumers
and 40 percent for businesses. But further cuts in subsidies, while painful,
will be needed if Ukraine is to achieve energy efficiency.
Managing Relations with Moscow
The final challenge relates to managing relations with Moscow, and
this may be the most difficult challenge of all. The cease-fire agreed
upon in Minsk on September 5, 2014, is fragile, and there is a serious
danger that it will collapse. Putin has shown no sign of being willing
to abide by the agreement. On the contrary, he has increased the military
pressure on Ukraine. Russia has continued to covertly send tanks
and other heavy equipment across the Russian-Ukrainian border in an
attempt to bolster the pro-Russian separatists.15 In addition, an estimated
200–300 regular Russian army troops are engaged in training
and equipping the Ukrainian rebels in Ukraine.16
These military moves are a violation of the cease-fire agreement
and suggest that the separatists, backed by Moscow, may be preparing
to retake territory they lost to the Ukrainian army in early summer.
One of their main objectives of the military activities is likely to be to
support the separatist seizure of the port of Mariupol, which would
enable Russia to supply the rebels by sea.
Putin’s goal appears to be to turn eastern Ukraine into another
long-term “frozen conflict,” with the breakaway territories established
in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk remaining outside of Kiev’s control.
These two oblasts would either be annexed and incorporated into
Russia proper, like Crimea, or be independent entities closely linked
economically and politically with Russia.
At the moment, Putin is riding high. His popular support and
approval ratings have soared since the annexation of Crimea, reaching
15 Karoun Demirjian and Michael Birnbaum, “Ukraine Accuses Russia of an Incursion,”
Washington Post, November 8, 2014.
16 Michael R. Gordon and Andrew E. Kramer, “Russia Continues to Train and Equip
Ukrainian Rebels, NATO Official Says,” New York Times, November 4, 2014.
The Geopolitical Roots and Dynamics of the Ukrainian Crisis 15
a record 85 percent in August. Meanwhile Europe is entering a period
of recession and has little stomach for a confrontation with Russia. This
may embolden Putin to test the United States’ willingness and readiness
to defend its interests.
One need only read Putin’s speech to the Valdai Discussion Club
on October 24, 2014, to get a sense of how difficult the coming period
in U.S.-Russian relations is likely to be.17 The speech was vintage
Putin—angry, resentful, and self-righteous—blaming all ills on the
West, especially the United States. It was reminiscent of his controversial
speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2007
in both tone and content.18 Russia, Putin made clear, would be guided
by its own national interests and stood adamantly opposed to Washington’s
efforts to build a unipolar world order. In the months ahead,
Putin is likely to continue to chip away at Ukrainian sovereignty and
test U.S. resolve, not only in Ukraine but elsewhere on Europe’s periphery.
The Baltic states in particular could face new pressures.
17 See Official Site of the President of Russia, “Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion
Club,” October 24, 2014. The Valdai Discussion Club is gathering of prominent Western
politicians, academics, and journalists.
18 Vladimir Putin, prepared remarks before the 43rd Munich Conference on Security,
Munich, Germany, February 12, 2007.

17
CHAPTER THREE
Implications for the United States
Under Putin, Russia has become a revisionist state. Putin believes that
the European security order that emerged at the end of the Cold War
does not reflect Russia’s interests. He wants to refashion it in ways that
are more compatible with Russian interests and restore what he sees as
Russia’s rightful place in Europe. He regards the post-Soviet space as a
sphere of Russia’s “privileged interest” and seeks to block the penetration
of this space by Western values and institutions—not only NATO
but also the European Union.
What is emerging is a “Cool War.” This “Cool War” is quite different
from the Cold War of the 1950s through the 1980s.1 It is regionally
rather than globally focused and primarily aimed at maintaining,
and where possible increasing, Russian influence in Europe, especially
the post-Soviet space. However, while the “Cool War” is more limited
than the Cold War, it could lead to a broad deterioration of political,
economic, and military relations between Russia and the Atlantic Alliance
and spill over into other important areas, such as arms control. For
example, Russia might decide to leave the Intermediate-Range Nuclear
Forces (INF) Treaty to facilitate the deployment of a new generation of
1 The term “Cool War” seems appropriate since it acknowledges that the nature of the
enhanced competition between Russia and the Atlantic Alliance will be much more complex
and dynamic given the extensive economic and financial relations between both parties. This
complex relationship of defense, deterrence, competition, and cooperation is not unlike the
emerging geostrategic relations between the United States and China. For a discussion of the
concept of an Asian “Cool War,” see Paul K. Davis and Peter A. Wilson, Looming Discontinuities
in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning—Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New
Strategy, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, OP-326, 2011.
18 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
ground mobile long-range precision-guided land attack cruise missiles
(LACMs). Such a move would cast a long shadow on the prospects of
any future nuclear arms control and disarmament agreements between
Washington and Moscow. Under a very bad case scenario, even the fate
of the New START agreement could be put at risk.
U.S. and European Interests
In the face of this evolving challenge, maintaining close coordination
of U.S. and European policy will be critically important—but also
more difficult. There is an asymmetry of interest between the United
States and Europe when it comes to Russia. Europe is more dependent
on Russian energy than the United States. Europe also conducts
a larger portion of its foreign trade with Russia. Hence the United
States’ European allies, especially Germany and Italy, are more hesitant
to impose sanctions on Russia. As a result, adopting a common policy
with which both sides are comfortable has been difficult.
Initially the EU, especially Germany and Italy, was hesitant to
impose a third round of sanctions on Russia. It was only after the
Malaysian commercial airliner was shot down that the EU agreed to
impose sanctions on Russia’s energy, defense, and financial sectors.
Indeed, had the Malaysian airliner not been shot down, the EU probably
would not have agreed to impose such biting sanctions.
Russia responded to the imposition of the sanctions on its energy,
defense, and financial sectors by announcing a ban on fruits and vegetables
from the EU, the United States, Australia, Canada, and Norway.
Russian officials, including Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, made
clear that other ”protective measures” were under consideration on
industrial sectors such as car-making and aircraft production.
The use of bans on agricultural products is hardly new. Russia has
placed restrictions on Georgian and Moldovan produce as well as the
import of Polish apples. But the restrictions imposed in retaliation for
the sanctions by the United States and EU are on a much broader scale.
Russia is the largest foreign market for sales of fruit and vegetables
from the EU and the second-biggest for American poultry. While in
Implications for the United States 19
the medium to long run the losses can be offset by import substitution,
in the short run they could spark price increases and shortage for Russian
consumers.
The ban is likely to have little impact on the United States because,
with exception of poultry, the United States exports relatively few agricultural
products or food goods to Russia— about $1.3 billion in 2013.
This represented about 11 percent of the exports to Russia but less than
1 percent of all American agriculture exports, or less than 0.1 percent
of total exports.2
The situation is quite different for Europe. Russia is a fast-growing
market for European farmers. The East European EU members, especially
Poland and Lithuania, will be the biggest losers from the ban.
Germany and Netherlands will be affected along with Spain and Italy,
but not as much as the East European countries.
The group hardest hit by the ban, however, is likely to be the Russian
consumer, especially the middle class.3 Putin appears to be gambling
that the Russian population will blame the West, not him, for
any shortages and price increases that are triggered by the ban on fruits
and vegetables. At the same time, he may be signaling that at a time
of increasing geopolitical competition with the West, Russia needs to
reduce its importation of foreign food and return to a more autarkic
policy, similar to the one pursued by the Soviet Union during the Cold
War.
The Economic Dimension
Security and geopolitical considerations have been the key drivers
behind Putin’s policy. He appears to have paid scant attention to the
economic impact of his actions. Putin seems to have believed that the
Europeans, particularly Germany, would not agree to impose serious
2 “Putin schockt die Bauern in Osteuropa,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, August 8,
2014
3
“Importverbot trifft russische Mittelschicht,” Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, August 11,
2014.
20 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
sanctions against Russia in retaliation for his intervention in eastern
Ukraine. This belief is likely to prove to be one of his most important
miscalculations.
The Russian economy had already begun to show signs of a slowdown
in growth and investment before the Crimean crisis. However,
the sharp decline in the price of oil, the impact of Western sanctions,
and the increasing threat of recession have caused growing concern in
Russian business circles. As of December 2014, the ruble had lost half
its value since the beginning of the year. This decline poses a danger of
stimulating a currency crisis on the scale of 1998 or 2008.
But there is an important difference between those crises and
the situation now. Today’s loss of confidence in the ruble is due not
just to economic or financial factors, but also to geopolitical factors.
The ruble’s decline reflects fears that the cease-fire signed in Minsk on
September 5, 2014, is unraveling and that the separatists, backed by
Russia, may be planning a new offensive. This sense of growing risk
and uncertainty has driven the value of ruble much lower than would
be expected from a 20 percent decline in oil prices
Many Russian businessmen have begun to send their money
abroad. Capital flight was expected to hit a record $120 billion in 2014,
perhaps even slightly higher.4 Inflation, aggravated by the ban on many
Western food imports, is rising. At the same time, declining oil prices
and signs of a deepening recession threaten to undercut Putin’s defense
spending drive.
The draft budget for 2015–2017 calls for a cut in defense expenditures
by 5.3 percent in 2016, the first cut in defense spending since
2008.5 The drop in the price of oil to below $50 per barrel has caused
unease in the Russian business community. Government officials have
warned that the budget can be balanced over the next three years only
if oil prices remain above $100 per barrel.6
4 “Putin Is Leading Russia Down an Isolationist Path,” Financial Times, October 8, 2014
5 Kathrin Hille, “Russia to Curb Defense Spending,” Financial Times, October 13, 2014.
6 David M. Herszenhorn, ”Fall in Oil Prices Poses a Problem for Russia, Iraq and Others,”
New York Times, October 16, 2014.
Implications for the United States 21
Putin does not appear to share these concerns. In the short term,
Russia does not face a serious threat as a result of the sharp decline
in oil prices. It has over $430 billion in foreign currency reserves that
can be used to cushion the effect of the drop in the price of oil if it
remains below $100 a barrel for an extended period of time. However,
in the longer run, persistently low oil prices, reinforced by the pressure
imposed by Western sanctions, could pose a serious challenge to the
Putin regime.7
Putin’s popularity rests on two central pillars: his appeal to Russian
nationalism and a rise in the economic standard of living. If the
standard of living begins to drop, Putin’s popularity could erode, and
he could face growing social discontent, particularly among the middle
class in the major cities. This could have two possible effects. The first
is that Putin tries to defuse rising discontent by seeking an accommodation
with the West. The second—and more probable—alternative is
that he seeks to deflect attention away from Russia’s growing economic
woes by stoking the fires of Russian nationalism and intensifying military
pressure on Ukraine and/or staging a provocation in one of the
Baltic states.
Russia’s Pivot Toward China
The United States is not the only country that has begun to focus more
attention on Asia. As relations with the West have soured and become
more difficult, Putin has sought to expand relations with China, especially
in the energy field. While the opening to China began prior to the
eruption of the Ukrainian crisis, the sanctions imposed by the United
States and EU have given the opening to Beijing greater impetus.
In May 2014, Russia and China signed a $400 billion deal to
provide natural gas to China over 30 years. The details of the May gas
deal have not been published, but Russian media accounts suggest that
China got a favorable deal because Putin needed to show that Russia
could survive even if trade relations with Europe declined.
7 See Sergei Guriev, “Russia Can’t Withstand Lower Oil Prices Forever,” Financial Times,
October 20, 2014.
22 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
The May agreement was followed by the signing of 38 major
agreements by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Russian Prime Minister
Medvedev in October, including a currency swap and tax treaty.
The two sides also hope to sign another major energy deal in the near
future involving the construction of a natural gas pipeline to western
China.
The agreements signed in 2014 are the centerpiece of Putin’s Eastern
policy. When the first of these, the “Power of Siberia” pipeline to
eastern China, reaches capacity, it will ship a volume equal to nearly
one-quarter of Russia’s 2013 gas exports to Europe. If the second pipeline
(the “Altay” route to western China) is built, the total could eventually
exceed 40 percent.8
However, as Thane Gustafson has noted, heading east is not the
same as getting there.9 There are a number of serious obstacles to orienting
Russia’s gas industry toward China. Russia’s entire gas industry
has been concentrated in the western third of the country. Shifting the
industry’s center of gravity eastward is an enormous undertaking and
requires developing a whole new industry from scratch. This cannot be
done overnight. Even on the most ambitious time table, the “Power of
Siberia” line will not reach its full capacity of 38 billion cubic meters
per year until the mid-2030s.
The pipeline is also enormously expensive—it could cost as much
as $55 billion for the eastern route alone.10 The Western sanctions have
further complicated Russia’s attempted pivot. Although Gazprom is
not directly subject to U.S. and European sanctions, the measures
taken by Washington and Brussels have severely circumscribed the
ability of Russian firms to borrow money. To finance the Power of
Siberia pipeline, Gazprom will have to raise money on the international
markets, where prospects are uncertain.
These problems notwithstanding, Putin’s pivot toward China represents
an important shift in Russian policy, and its significance should
8 Thane Gustafson, “Russia May Pivot to the East But It Cannot Escape Its European Destiny,”
Financial Times, November 20, 2014.
9 Gustafson, 2014.
10 Gustafson, 2014.
Implications for the United States 23
not be underestimated. In the energy field, Russia and China are natural
partners. Russia has bountiful supplies of gas and oil, while China’s
energy needs are rapidly expanding, creating a growing necessity to
find new resources. These expanding energy ties are bound to have an
impact on political ties, creating new interdependencies.
At the same time, one should not exaggerate the nature of the
expanding ties between Moscow and Beijing. At its core, the closer ties
represent a marriage of convenience rather than a blooming love affair
between two like-minded partners. Russia and China both share an
interest in constraining U.S. advances in Asia, but there are objective
limits to the partnership. Russia is a declining power and junior partner
in the relationship. Given its large investments in the U.S. economy,
Beijing will want to keep the door open to cooperation with the
United States and not burn its bridges with Washington.
Constraints on U.S.-European Cooperation
Economic factors may also have an impact on European policy, driving
European leaders to adopt a cautious approach toward Russia. There
are signs that the crisis in Ukraine and growing tensions with Russia
may be pushing the Eurozone back into recession.11 During the first
quarter of 2014, the economies of seven out of 18 Eurozone countries
shrank, while France had zero growth. Italy’s gross GDP contracted
0.2 percent from April through June 2014. The decline dashed hopes
that Italy, the third-largest economy in the Eurozone behind Germany
and France, was finally emerging from a decade of stagnation.12
In addition, there are indications that the German economy, which
provides more than one-quarter of the Eurozone’s output, is losing
momentum.13 Germany’s industrial output fell 4 percent between July
and August 2014—the biggest monthly decline since 2009. The sluggish
industrial figures show that Germany has begun to suffer from a
11 Jack Ewing and Gala Pianigiana, “Slowdown in Italy Adds to Fears Over Ukraine,” International
New York Times, August 7, 2014.
12 Ewing and Pianigiana, 2014.
13 Claire Jones, “Russian Tensions Hit Fragile Eurozone Growth,” Financial Times, August
11, 2014.
24 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
weakening of demand for its exports, raising fears that Germany might
be headed for a recession. Earlier expectations that Germany could lift
the weaker economies in the Eurozone out of the doldrums now look
highly doubtful. Instead, it looks increasingly likely that the Eurozone
will slide into its third recession since the financial crisis in 2008.14
The escalating sanction regimes imposed by the United States and
Europe have sent jitters through European financial circles. Leading
figures in the European financial world, such as Mario Draghi, President
of the European Central Bank, fear that a further breakdown of
relations with Russia over Ukraine could weaken European growth
in the second half of 2014. This may make European political leaders
more reluctant in the future to impose additional sanctions on Russia
and could generate increasing pressure to roll back some of the restrictions
already in place.
EU-Russian Relations
The Ukrainian crisis has put the EU and Russia on an increasing collision
course—a course that neither side wanted nor foresaw. As Ulrich
Speck has noted, the EU never intended to get into a geopolitical confrontation
with Russia; rather, it “sleepwalked” into it.15 But now the
geopolitical stakes are too high for either side to easily back down.
For the EU, two important interests are at stake: first, the stabilization
of a zone of instability and turmoil on its Eastern periphery,
and second, respect for the principle that European borders cannot be
changed by force. This has been a core principle of EU policy since the
signing of the Helsinki Final Act in l975, and it was violated by Russia’s
annexation of Crimea. Thus, the EU’s credibility as a united and
important international actor is on the line.
14 Chris Giles and Stefan Wagstyl, “IMF Warns of Third Eurozone Recession Since Financial
Crisis,” Financial Times, October 8, 2014.
15 Ulrich Speck, “How the EU Sleepwalked into a Conflict with Russia,” Carnegie Europe,
July 10, 2014.
Implications for the United States 25
The stakes for Russia are also high. A pro-European Ukraine
would be seen as a strategic defeat and humiliation for both Russia and
Putin personally. Without Ukraine, Putin’s plan for a Eurasian Union
makes little sense and is unlikely to be realized.
Initially, Russia did not see the EU as a threat. Most of its attention
was devoted to trying to block the enlargement of NATO. However,
Russian attitudes began to change with the development in 2009
of the EU’s Eastern Partnership. A joint Polish-Swedish initiative, the
Eastern Partnership was designed to increase cooperation with six
states in the post-Soviet space: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Armenia,
Azerbaijan, and Georgia. However, the Eastern Partnership never had
the full support of the strongest EU member states, particularly Germany,
which feared that the initiative could have a negative impact on
its attempt to deepen relations with Russia.
Those in the EU who supported the Eastern Partnership saw it as
a win-win situation for all concerned. EU officials believed the initiative
could forge closer ties to Russia’s neighbors in the post-Soviet space
and simultaneously maintain good relations with Moscow. Russia, they
argued, would benefit from greater stabilization of its periphery, and
the members of the Eastern Partnership could act as a bridge between
Russia and the EU.
Moscow, however, never shared this view. To Russian officials,
the Eastern Partnership looked more like a “hostile takeover.” Rather,
Russia intended the six states targeted by the Eastern Partnership to
be part of the Eurasian Customs Union—later renamed the Eurasian
Union—and confronted members with a stark either/or choice: Membership
in the Eurasian Union was incompatible with the deep and
comprehensive trade agreements that the EU sought to sign with the
members of the Eastern Partnership.
Ukraine tried to have it both ways—to expand ties to the EU and
simultaneously maintain good relations with Moscow. For a time, this
strategy looked as if it might work. However, on the eve of the opening
of the EU summit in Vilnius in November 2013, Yanukovych, under
heavy pressure from Putin, refused to sign the Association Agreement,
and it was withdrawn from the summit agenda. Yanukovych’s refusal
to sign the Association Agreement sparked widespread protests call-
26 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
ing for the agreement to be signed and a strengthening of cooperation
with the EU, which culminated in Yanukovych’s ouster as president in
February 2014 and the signing of the of the Association Agreement in
July 2014.
However, Putin has not given up and is attempting to block implementation
of the Association Agreement. In a letter to Josef Manuel
Barroso, President of the European Commission, in late September,
he demanded the reopening of the negotiations on the agreement and
threatened to take “immediate and appropriate retaliatory measures” if
Ukraine seeks to implement the agreement.16
The German Factor
The Ukrainian crisis has underscored Germany’s increasingly important
geopolitical role in managing relations with Russia. Berlin is Russia’s
most important trading partner in Europe, and a key market for
energy. Ties between Berlin and Moscow were particularly close under
Merkel’s predecessor Gerhard Schroeder (SPD), especially in the economic
field. (On leaving office, Schroeder became a well-paid executive
for Gazprom, the Russian state energy giant.) While Merkel has been
more outspoken about criticizing Russian abuses of human and political
rights, her economic policy toward Russia has until very recently
differed little from Schroeder’s.
However, German policy has begun to shift lately. Merkel was the
driving force behind the tough sanctions adopted by the EU in July.
Initially, Merkel had hoped that she could nudge Putin toward a diplomatic
solution. But after the shooting down of the Malaysian airliner,
Merkel lost trust in Putin, because she believed he had repeatedly lied
to her about Russia’s involvement and his willingness to restrain the
separatists.17 As the months have passed, her tone has sharpened and
16 Peter Spiegel, “Putin Demands Reopening of EU Trade Pact with Ukraine,” Financial
Times, September 26, 2014.
17 See Quentin Peel, “Merkel Wants a Stable World and Is Willing to Pay a Price,” Financial
Times, August 12, 2014. See also Stefan Wagstyl, “Merkel Rethink on Tough Action Reflects
Loss of Trust in Putin,” Financial Times, July 31, 2014.
Implications for the United States 27
she has become more outspoken in her criticism of Russian policy and
Putin personally.
From Berlin’s perspective, Russia has gone in one year from being
a difficult partner to being an adversary. The attempt to intensify cooperation
in a number of areas launched in 2008—one in which German
leaders placed great hopes—appears to have come to an irrevocable
end.18 Instead, Berlin is currently discussing ways in which it can blunt
Moscow’s expansionary drive, particularly in the Balkans.
The tougher policy toward Russia has been given important impetus
by the Ukrainian crisis and reflects Germany’s willingness to take
on greater international responsibility and leadership—a willingness
first officially broached by President Joachim Gauck at the Munich
Security Conference in February 2014, where he called for Germany
to do more “to guarantee the security that others have provided it
for decades.”19 Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (a Social
Democrat) and Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, a member of
Merkel’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU), raised similar themes in
their remarks at the conference.20
This new willingness to take on more international responsibility
represents an important shift in German policy. In the past, Germany
has been the dominant European player on economic issues—as its
tough-minded defense of the need for austerity measures and greater
belt-tightening during the Eurozone crisis underscored. However,
until very recently Berlin has been reluctant to take the lead on foreign
policy issues, which have traditionally been left to France and Britain.
However, the Eurozone crisis underscored the need for a bolder, more
assertive German role.
Merkel was initially reluctant to assume that role for fear of
sparking historical concerns about German “dominance.” However,
18 “Putin’s Reach: Merkel Concerned About Russian Influence in the Balkans,” Der Spiegel,
November 17, 2014.
19 See Joachim Gauck, “Germany’s Role in the World: Reflections on Responsibility, Norms
and Alliances,” speech at the Opening of the Munich Security Conference, January 31, 2014.
20 See Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Foreign Minister, speech at the 50th Munich Security
Conference, January 31, 2014; and Ursula von der Leyen, speech at the 50th Munich Security
Conference, January 31, 2014.
28 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
faced with a leadership vacuum, Merkel had little choice and reluctantly
stepped forward to fill it. As noted, she played a critical role in
shaping the tougher EU sanctions adopted in July 2014. This was all
the more striking because in the past Germany has often refrained
from taking actions that could antagonize Russia and has often shown
“understanding” for some of Moscow’s policies—a tendency which has
angered many East European members of NATO and the EU.
The United States needs to build on the close cooperation with
Berlin that emerged during the sanctions debate to forge closer ties to
Germany. Close coordination of German and U.S. policy will be more
important than ever in the future because of Germany’s increasing economic
clout and its special relationship with Russia.
Washington should welcome and encourage Germany’s willingness
to take on greater international responsibility, which is very much
in U.S. interests. At the same time, Washington needs to be sensitive
to the domestic constraints that make this effort to change the German
“culture of reticence” a difficult task; a large part of the German population
is uncomfortable with Germany playing a more active international
role.21 Thus, Washington should recognize that it will take time
for the German public to adapt to such a role.
Finally, there is a critical need to rebuild mutual trust in the wake
of the NSA spying revelations and other intelligence incidents. It is
hard to overdramatize the damage that these revelations have done to
U.S. interests and image among the German public. The United States
needs to make a conscious and sustained effort to begin to rebuild trust
among the German population.
The NATO Factor
Ukraine’s ties to NATO have been a source of serious tension in Kiev’s
relations with Moscow. Russia is viscerally opposed to Ukrainian mem-
21 According to a recent poll, only 30 percent of the German population favors Germany
taking on greater responsibility in international affairs, while 70 percent are opposed, some
quite strongly. See Majid Sattar, “Schlussetappe auf dem langen Weg nach Westen,” Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung, August 26, 2014.
Implications for the United States 29
bership in NATO and has fought hard to block Ukrainian membership
in the Alliance. Ukraine’s entry into NATO would alter the balance
of power in Central Europe to Russia’s disadvantage and foreclose any
residual possibility of building a “Slavic Union” composed of Russia,
Ukraine, and Belarus. Thus, Russia has made preventing Ukrainian
membership in NATO one of its top foreign policy priorities.
Ukraine’s policy toward NATO has evolved considerably in the
past decade. In the early years after independence, Ukraine pursued
a nonaligned policy, in part to avoid antagonizing Russia. Kiev initially
opposed NATO enlargement to Central Europe because it feared
that NATO membership would create new dividing lines in Europe
and lead to increased Russian pressure on Ukraine. However, Moscow’s
hardline opposition to NATO enlargement and Kiev’s desire
to improve relations with the West contributed to a gradual shift in
Ukraine’s approach to enlargement.
Under President Leonid Kuchma, Ukraine consciously began to
strengthen ties to the Alliance. Ukraine was the first member of the
Commonwealth of Independent States to join Partnership for Peace
(PfP) and has been one of the most active participants in PfP exercises.
At the NATO summit in Madrid in July 1997, Kiev signed the Charter
on a Distinctive Partnership with NATO. Although the charter did
not provide explicit security guarantees, it called for the establishment
of a crisis consultative mechanism that could be activated if Ukraine
perceived a direct threat to its security.22
The charter also foresaw a broad expansion of ties between NATO
and Ukraine in a number of key areas, such as civil-military relations,
democratic control of the armed forces, armaments cooperation, and
defense planning. In addition to a close relationship with NATO,
Ukraine also built individual security relationships with Britain and
the United States.
22 For the text of the charter, see “Charter on A Distinctive Partnership Between the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization and Ukraine,” NATO Review, Vol. 45, No. 4, July–August
1997, Documentation Section. See also David Buchan and David White, “NATO Signs
Charter with Ukraine,” Financial Times, July 10, 1997.
30 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
The rapprochement with NATO was not undertaken because
Ukraine felt a strong military threat. Rather it was part of a carefully
calculated political balancing act pursued by President Kuchma, who
sought to strengthen ties to NATO as a means of increasing his political
leverage with Moscow. Contrary to the concerns of many critics
who feared that intensifying ties to NATO would lead to a sharp
deterioration of relations with Russia, the rapprochement with NATO
increased Ukraine’s freedom of maneuver and led to an improvement
of ties with Moscow.
In May 2002, President Kuchma announced that Ukraine
intended to abandon its policy of nonalignment and apply for NATO
membership. Here again the decision was part of a calculated effort
to counterbalance Russia. President Putin’s decision to support the
United States in the war on terrorism and the subsequent improvement
in U.S.-Russian relations raised the prospect that Russia would have a
closer relationship with NATO than Ukraine. Ukraine’s application
for NATO membership was designed to undercut this prospect.
However, Kuchma’s increasingly repressive internal policies as
well as suspicions that Ukraine had sold aircraft tracking systems to
Iraq (the Kolchuga affair) led NATO to put relations with Ukraine
on hold. The Alliance decided to wait until after the 2004 presidential
elections before taking any new initiatives with Ukraine.
The election of Viktor Yushchenko as Ukrainian president in
December 2004 resulted in a warming of Ukraine’s relations with
NATO. In an attempt to encourage Yushchenko’s pro-Western reform
course, NATO offered Ukraine Intensified Dialogue status in April
2005—a preparatory step toward an individualized Membership
Action Plan (MAP). In the run up to the NATO summit in Bucharest
in April 2008, President Bush pushed hard for the Alliance to grant
Ukraine and Georgia MAP status. MAP was viewed by many, especially
the Russian leadership, as being a precursor to NATO membership.
France and Germany, however, opposed granting Ukraine MAP,
fearing that it would antagonize Russia and lead to a deterioration of
the Alliance’s relations with Russia. France and Germany succeeded in
blocking efforts to grant MAP to Ukraine and Georgia. However, the
communiqué issued at the end of the summit by the NATO Heads of
Implications for the United States 31
State and Governments stated that Ukraine and Georgia would one
day be admitted to NATO, although no specific date or timetable was
mentioned. Thus, from Moscow’s point of view, the outcome was even
worse than the Russian leadership had expected. It appeared that while
Ukraine and Georgia had been denied MAP, they had been given a
formal commitment that they would one day become members of
NATO, with all the implications articulated above.
However, since the conclusion of the Bucharest summit, the prospects
for Ukraine’s entry into NATO have significantly declined. The
Russian invasion of Georgia contributed to a shift in thinking within
the Alliance about NATO’s enlargement to the post-Soviet space, and
especially Ukrainian membership. The invasion was a sharp reminder
that membership in NATO is not a one-way street; it also involves
concrete commitments and responsibilities, including a commitment
to use force if a NATO member is attacked. At the same time, the invasion
made clear Russia’s readiness to defend its interests—with force if
necessary. Hence, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Georgia,
the issue of NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia was put on
indefinite hold. While the door to Ukrainian and Georgian membership
in NATO remained open rhetorically, in practice membership for
both countries was shelved and relegated to the back burner.
In the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and attempt
to destabilize eastern Ukraine, the issue of Ukrainian membership in
NATO has again come to the fore. Some U.S. officials and analysts suggest
that the United States should respond to the annexation of Crimea
and the attempt to destabilize eastern Ukraine by admitting Ukraine
into NATO. However, such a move would be unwise. Given Russia’s
strong opposition to Ukrainian membership in NATO, actively pushing
for Ukrainian membership at this point would be counterproductive
and could be highly destabilizing. It would only inflame the political
atmosphere and could give Putin an excuse for taking military
action against Kiev.
Instead the emphasis in NATO policy will likely be on modernizing
Ukraine’s military and security forces and improving their readiness
and training. Should this happen, the Army would have an important
role to play in this program. However, given the years of neglect
32 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
of the military and the rampant corruption in Ukrainian armed forces,
U.S. officials should have no illusions about the difficulties such an
effort would face. There are no quick fixes to the problems confronting
the Ukrainian armed forces. The problems are structural and cannot
be repaired overnight. Fixing them will require a long-term, sustained
commitment to structural reform on the part of the United States and
NATO.
Reassuring Eastern Europe
The Russian annexation of Crimea and attempt to destabilize eastern
Ukraine have made Poland and the Baltic countries very nervous
and prompted calls for NATO to station combat forces in Eastern
Europe and the Baltic states. The main outcome of NATO’s summit in
Wales in September was an emphasis on deterrence and reassurance of
NATO’s new Central and East European members. At Wales, NATO
approved plans for the creation of a Very High Readiness Joint Task
Force (VJTF), a brigade-sized (4,000-man) rapid reaction force within
the NATO Response Force (NRF) that could be dispatched to East
European trouble spots within several days.23 This upgraded force is
designed to enhance NATO’s ability to effectively carry out crisis management
missions in regions far from NATO members’ capitals. The
NATO Standing Naval Forces will also be given greater emphasis. In
addition, the Alliance agreed to continue air policing over the Baltic
states and to beef up its multinational headquarters in Poland.
23 Stephen Erlanger, Julie Herschfeld Davis, and Stephen Castle, “NATO Plans a Special
Force to Reassure Eastern Europe and Deter Russia,” New York Times, September 6, 2014.
For a detailed discussion, see Jeffrey A. Larson, “The Wales Summit and NATO’s Deterrence
Capabilities: An Assessment,” NDC Research Report, NATO Defense College, November
2014.
Implications for the United States 33
Strengthening Baltic Security
The sense of vulnerability is particularly strong in the Baltic states.
Baltic officials note that under Putin the number of incidents and violations
of Baltic airspace have significantly increased. NATO fighter
planes policing Baltic airspace were scrambled 68 times along Lithuania’s
borders—the highest count by far in more than ten years. Latvia
registered 150 “close incidents.” Finland has had five violations of its
airspace against a yearly average of one or two in the previous decade.24
Some of this activity can be attributed to an increase in Russian
military exercises along NATO’s eastern borders. While the Baltic
states have borne the brunt of the incursions, these violations and incidents
have been part of a broader surge in infringements.
The incidents have not been limited to airspace incursions.
According to Estonian officials, in early September a well-armed squad
of Russian security operatives reportedly kidnapped an officer in the
Estonian Internal Security Service, dragged him at gunpoint into
Russia, and charged him with espionage before a squad of Russian
television cameras.25 Baltic officials see the incident as a blunt warning
to the Balts that, despite their membership in NATO, Russia still has
the capacity to act as it pleases in the Baltic region.
This is not to suggest that Russia is planning a conventional
attack on the Baltic states. Such a scenario is highly unlikely. As members
of NATO, the Baltic states have a security guarantee under Article
V of the Washington treaty. Thus, a direct Russian conventional
attack against any one of the Baltic states is unlikely. However, there
are myriad ways in which Russia could put pressure on the Baltic states
short of a conventional attack.
The fact that Estonia and Latvia have large ethnic Russian minorities
on their territory provides a ready-made pretext for exerting pressure
on the two Baltic states, especially since Putin has stressed Russia’s
24 Richard Milne, Sam Jones, and Kathrin Hille, “Russian Air Incursions Rattle Baltic
States,” Financial Times, September 25, 2014.
25 Andrew Higgins, “Tensions Surge in Estonia Amid a Russian Replay of the Cold War,”
New York Times, October 6, 2014.
34 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
responsibility to protect the welfare of ethnic Russians and Russian
speakers living outside Russia’s borders. It is not hard to imagine a scenario
in which Russia seeks to use the alleged “mistreatment” of the
Russian minority in Estonia or Latvia as a pretext for making political
demands on the two countries. This fact, combined with the difficulty
of defending the Baltic states against Russia’s overwhelming local military
superiority, has generated concerns among Baltic officials that at
some point Russia might try to use such claims as a pretext for putting
pressure on one or more of the Baltic states.
As in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Russia would not likely undertake
an overt military invasion, but rather could attempt to utilize a
combination of deception, clandestine sabotage, and strategic ambiguity
to try to destabilize one or more of the Baltic states—measures
designed to confuse and obfuscate efforts to attempt a creeping takeover
of part of the Baltics.
If true, then this implies that in the future more attention needs
to be paid to countering unconventional threats. Russian efforts to
use unconventional approaches raise important questions that need to
be answered by NATO and national planners: When does Article V
apply? What is the threshold and how can it be identified before that
threshold is crossed? What can and should be done, and by whom?26
President Obama’s visit to Estonia on his way to the NATO
summit in Wales in early September was important for strengthening
the resolve of the Baltic allies. The stopover was designed to reassure the
Baltic states that the United States and NATO were committed to their
security. During his visit, Obama stressed that “the security of Tallinn,
Riga and Vilnius is just as important as the defense of Berlin, Paris or
London.”27 Should more concrete measures to enhance deterrence in
the Baltic region be desired, options could include the following:
26 We would like to express our gratitude to Robert Nurick for enhancing our awareness
and understanding of the dilemmas posed by Russian use of nonlinear and hybrid warfare.
27 See Julie Herschfeld Davis, “Obama in Estonia, Calls Ukraine Conflict ‘A Moment of
Truth,’” New York Times, September 3, 2014.
Implications for the United States 35
• Increase the capacity of the Baltic interior defense forces,
including Special Weapons And Tactics (SWAT) teams, riot
police, and motorized national police and intelligence services.
Due to the possibility of Moscow inflaming the ethnic Russian
community in the Baltic region, those countries may need to
increase their internal intelligence and security forces.
• Develop more robust homeland defense. Although the military
budgets of the Baltic nations are very limited, it is possible that
certain key military capabilities could be enhanced. Examples
include man-portable air defense missiles and infantry-portable
anti-armor guided missiles that could be used to delay and inflict
casualties on a Russian attack while NATO prepares a larger
response.
• Deploy a Baltic trip-wire force. For this option, there are two
variants:
– Station NATO forces in the Baltic states. A NATO ground
presence in the three Baltic states would greatly reinforce the
Alliance’s deterrent posture. This need not be a heavy force
capable of defending territory, but rather could be simply a
force large enough to make clear that, if it attacked, Russia
would be choosing conflict with NATO. However, there is
no consensus within the Alliance for taking such a bold step.
While the new members, especially Poland, strongly favor permanently
stationing NATO troops in Eastern Europe, Germany
is adamantly opposed to such a move, fearing that it will
further antagonize Moscow.
– Depend upon rapid reaction forces. Similar to the emerging
NATO Rapid Reaction concept, this option would rely on
light air transportable forces that could be quickly deployed
from locations in Europe or the United States. By design, these
forces would not have the combat power of heavier armored
motorized and mechanized/armored forces; however, they
would provide a trip-wire force that also would erase any doubt
that Russia was choosing armed conflict with NATO.
• Deploy more than a trip-wire force to the Baltics. The Atlantic
Alliance might conclude that a very robust defense and deter-
36 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
rent posture is needed in the Baltic states to convince Russia of
NATO’s seriousness of purpose. A robust ground presence would
dramatically raise the military stakes for Moscow, which could
not defeat a determined NATO defense unless it went nuclear,
but the political objections within NATO European countries
will likely be similar to any decision to permanently deploy forces
in the Baltic region.
• Enhance rapid reaction capabilities and prepositioning.
NATO could enhance its air- and sea-transportable rapid reaction
forces to provide it with more response options. Additionally,
NATO could preposition of heavy equipment in Poland,
Romania, and Germany. Given the geographic advantages Russia
enjoys in the Baltic region, NATO leaders should be prepared to
deploy these forces during a timely Flexible Deterrent Operation
(FDO) in a strategically ambiguous environment; ensuring that
the NATO contingents are able to respond rapidly to any aggressive
Russian move, even if ambiguous, would be important.
Defense Cooperation with Sweden and Finland
Russian actions in Ukraine have intensified Sweden and Finland’s
interest in closer cooperation with NATO and given the debate regarding
possible Swedish and Finnish membership in NATO new impetus.
Although neither country is likely to join NATO in the next few years,
both have stepped up defense cooperation with the Alliance recently.
Finland and Sweden both signed host-nation support agreements with
NATO at the Wales summit, indicating the readiness to receive assistance
from Allied forces and to support them with their military assets,
such as ships and aircraft.
As Andrew Michta has noted, Sweden and Finland are increasingly
important to NATO’s defense planning.28 They offer a critical
link for operations involving the Baltic states. Any decisions taken by
28 See Andrew Michta, “Putin Targets the Scandinavians,” The American Interest, November
17, 2014.
Implications for the United States 37
Sweden and Finland on possible NATO membership would have a
ripple effect on the overall security position of the Baltic states and on
Central European security in general.
Recently, Moscow has stepped up efforts to undo the budding
cooperation between Sweden, Finland, and NATO and ultimately to
neutralize the two countries through direct and indirect military, economic,
and political means. Moscow’s goal is to force the two Nordic
states to opt out of any confrontation with Russia and prevent NATO
from using their airspace and territory. Russian planning, exercises,
and patterns of harassment seek to convey to Sweden and Finland that
if Russia should choose to, it could target their territory as well. The
goal is to undermine the confidence of Alliance members along the
northeastern flank that NATO would carry out its Article V security
guarantee.29
By targeting Sweden and Finland Russia seeks to achieve two
important goals: (1) dissuade Sweden and Finland from joining NATO
and (2) persuade the Baltic states that they can not rely on NATO’s
Article V security guarantee. If Moscow’s effort is successful, it would
not only decrease security in the Nordic-Baltic region but weaken
NATO’s credibility more broadly, quite possibly irreparably. Thus,
there is an important linkage between Nordic-Baltic security and the
broader security challenge posed by Russia’s actions in Ukraine. U.S.
and European leaders ignore this linkage at their peril.
New Uncertainties in the Black Sea Region
The annexation of Crimea has shifted the military balance in the Black
Sea region more strongly in Russia’s favor and significantly increased
Russia’s strategic footprint in the region. In addition to acquiring Sevastopol,
the finest natural harbor in the Black Sea, Russia also acquired
the former Crimean Ukrainian naval bases of Novoozerne on Donuzlav
29 Michta, 2014.
38 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
Bay, Myrnyi (Donuzlav Lake), Saky, Balaklava, and a maritime infantry
base at Feodosia.30
The expansion of the Black Sea Fleet will strengthen Russia’s ability
to project power in the region and enable Moscow to exert influence
over the eastern Mediterranean, Balkans, and Middle East. Within the
Black Sea littoral, the Bulgarian, Romanian, and Georgian navies are
no match for the Black Sea Fleet.31 Only Turkey is in a position to contest
the maritime superiority of the Russian fleet. Turkey and Russia
have been historical rivals for power in the Black Sea region. They have
fought 13 wars with each other, most of which Turkey lost. This historical
animosity was reinforced by Stalin’s expansionist policy toward
Turkey at the end of World War II, which was the driving force behind
Turkey’s decision to join NATO in 1952.
In the past decade, however, Turkey’s relations with Russia have
improved markedly, especially in the economic realm. Russia is Turkey’s
largest trading partner and its largest supplier of natural gas.
Russia is also an important market for the Turkish construction industry.
Projects in Russia account for about one-fourth of all projects carried
out by Turkish contractors around the world.32
Energy has been an important driver of the recent intensification
of ties between Ankara and Moscow. Russia supplies over 50 percent
of Turkey’s natural-gas imports and 40 percent of its crude oil imports.
Russian investment in Turkey, especially in the energy, tourism, and
telecommunication sectors, has also grown visibly in recent years. This
has made Turkey cautious about openly criticizing Moscow on some
security issues.
Turkey’s views on maritime security in the Black Sea area are
closer to Russia’s than to those of the United States. Ankara essentially
30 John C. K. Daly, “After Crimea: The Future of the Black Sea Fleet,” Jamestown Foundation,
May 22, 2014.
31 One military option is to provide these countries with their own anti-access capacity; the
EU and United States could provide them with ground mobile anti-ship missile and maritime
surveillance capabilities.
32 For a detailed discussion, see F. Stephen Larrabee, “Turkey’s New Geopolitics,” Survival,
Vol. 52, No. 2, April–May 2010, pp. 167–169.
Implications for the United States 39
regards the Black Sea as a “Turkish lake” and opposes an expansion of
both the NATO and the U.S. military presence there. Turkey blocked
a U.S. initiative designed to increase the role of NATO’s Operation
Active Endeavor in the Black Sea in 2006.33 The NATO initiative conflicted
with Operation Black Sea Harmony, an initiative launched by
the Turkish Navy in March 2004.
In addition, Turkey feared that an increased U.S. or NATO military
presence in the Black Sea could exacerbate tensions with Russia.
Turkish officials argue that Black Sea security should be provided by
the littoral countries of the Black Sea. Instead of increasing the U.S.
or NATO military presence, Turkey proposed expanding the Black
Sea Naval Cooperation Task Force (known as BLACKSEAFOR), a
multinational naval task force that includes Russia, Ukraine, Georgia,
Romania, and Bulgaria.34
Turkey also worried that NATO initiatives could lead to the erosion
of the 1936 Montreux Convention, which regulates access to the
Bosporus and Dardanelles. The convention is a cornerstone of Turkish
foreign policy. Ankara is strongly opposed to any initiative that might
imply a change in the status of the convention or that could disturb
the maritime status quo in the Black Sea region.35 Thus, any future
proposals or initiatives for increased U.S.-Turkish cooperation in the
33 Ümit Enginsoy, and Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turks Oppose U.S. Black Sea Move,” Defense
News, March 13, 2006.
34 Serkan Demirtas, “Blackseafor to Be Expanded,” Turkish Daily News (Istanbul), September
19, 2008.
35 Turkish sensitivity about strictly abiding by provisions of the Montreux Convention was
underscored in August 2008 in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion of Georgia.
The United States sought to send two U.S. Navy hospital ships, the USNS Comfort and the
USNS Mercy, through the Dardanelles with humanitarian aid for Georgia. Their tonnage,
however, exceeded the limits allowed for foreign warships under the Montreux Convention.
Turkey let it be known that the ships would not be allowed to pass through the Bosphorus
because they violated the Montreux Convention. The United States eventually sent the aid
aboard the destroyer USS McFaul, the USCGC Dallas, and the USS Mount Whitney, all of
which were well below the tonnage limits allowed under the Montreux Convention. See
Ümit Enginsoy and Burak Ege Bekdil, “Turkey Jealously Defends Its Rights on the Black
Sea,” Defense News, September 29, 2008. On the U.S. denial that it wanted a change in the
Montreux Convention, see Ümit Enginsoy, “No Change Wanted on Turk Straits Convention,”
Turkish Daily News (Istanbul), August 28, 2008.
40 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
Black Sea will need to take into consideration Turkey’s acute sensitivity
regarding changes in the maritime status quo in the region.
41
CHAPTER FOUR
Conclusions and Implications for the U.S. Army
Even if the current turbulence in Europe, the Greater Middle East, and
East Asia prompts the U.S. Congress to agree with the White House to
reverse the spending cuts mandated by the Budget Control Act of 2011
(Pub. L. 112–25), U.S. topline defense spending is likely to remain
constrained. Therefore, the U.S. defense leadership will have to devise
a strategy that enables it to address the increased demands from NATO
to shore up its deterrence and defense posture in Eastern Europe in
the face of a revisionist Russia, as well as meet its commitments elsewhere
in the world, all without counting on substantial increases in
programmed force structure or equipment modernization accounts.
The Ukrainian crisis has a number of important possible implications
for the U.S. military in general and the Army in particular. First,
the assumption that Europe had become a strategically stable continent
and that the United States could shift its attention to other regions,
especially Asia and the Middle East, has been overturned. Europe will
play a more important role in U.S. national security strategy in the
coming decade, not a lesser one.
Second, if the Department of Defense is tasked to help NATO
build a much more robust deterrence and defense posture in Eastern
Europe, the Army and Air Force will need to revisit planning assumptions
that have minimized U.S. military commitments to that region
since the end of the Cold War. When added to steady or growing
demands for U.S. military deployments and activities elsewhere (e.g.,
East Asia, the Middle East, Africa), this would all but demand a reappraisal
of the balance between the requirements of the defense strategy
42 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
and the resources available to support it. Put simply, many elements of
the joint force are being stretched thin to meet new commitments that
were not foreseen even as recently as January 2014, when the Quadrennial
Defense Review completed its work and the FY 2015 budget submission
went forward.
Third, Russia’s military actions in Crimea and in the Ukrainian
crisis demonstrated a new model of Russian military thinking,
combining traditional instruments of Russian military thought with
a new emphasis on surprise, deception, and strategic ambiguity. This
approach enables Russia to disguise its real intentions and conduct an
“invasion by stealth.” In the future, NATO is likely to face a Russian
military that relies on approaches and techniques associated with
Russia’s low-cost annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of eastern
Ukraine. Countries such as the Baltic states and Moldova, which
are on Russia’s periphery and have large ethnic Russian minorities on
their soil, could be the targets of this new Russian approach to warfare.
Moreover, Russia is willing to use conventional forces to compensate
for the operational deficiencies of any more subtle use of violence,
as demonstrated during August 2014, when several thousand Regular
Russian troops were clandestinely infiltrated into eastern Ukraine to
defeat the Ukrainian armed forces with firepower-intensive attacks.
Fourth, while overt Russian military action against East European
members of NATO is considerably less likely than the more
ambiguous and subtle forms of coercion employed in Crimea and eastern
Ukraine, an overt conventional attack cannot be entirely excluded.
Put simply, Moscow has demonstrated a willingness to escalate to high
levels of military operations if more clandestine and strategic ambiguous
means do not produce a strategically satisfactory result. NATO
as a whole, and the U.S. Army in particular, must prepare for a wide
spectrum of threats in the region, including a very high-firepower conventional
conflict like the one Putin used at the end of August 2014 in
eastern Ukraine.
Fifth, and following from these, the military challenges for the
Joint Forces and the U.S. Army in this more complex European security
environment will require the development of creative approaches
and perhaps investment strategies. While not a return to the Cold War,
Conclusions and Implications for the U.S. Army 43
this threat pattern may require the development of new concepts of
air-land operations that span the spectrum of military operations to
both counter unconventional threats like that manifested in Ukraine
in 2014 and deter conventional Russian attacks.
As the Army considers options for improving its ability to respond
to demands in Europe, several planning and investment issues will have
to be addressed. If the main security concerns for the Eastern European
NATO nations are posed by irregular threats and attempts by proRussian
groups to destabilize the region, then a major Army mission
could be to help Eastern European militaries and other security forces
improve their capabilities to deal with the challenge posed by irregular
warfare. At the same time, as noted above, the Army and Air Force
would have to be prepared to deal with the full spectrum of conflict,
including the extensive use of high-firepower weapons (some equipped
with precision munitions) in fairly large-scale combat operations.
The possible contributions of other NATO members could influence
what U.S. Army elements are needed in Eastern Europe. This will
be a high-level political consideration within NATO. Some members
may be willing to contribute various capabilities to assist the Eastern
European members. Given the relatively short distances from Germany,
Italy, France, and other countries to the Baltic states and Romania,
the cost of deploying and maintaining other European forces in
the region would probably be significantly lower than the cost of transporting
U.S. forces from the United States. However, the key question
will be what and how much other NATO members are willing to contribute.
Once that issue is resolved, the Army’s role will be much easier
to determine.
To bolster the full spectrum of defense and deterrence requirements,
the United States has a number of options for how to use its
Army. First, the Army could develop and deploy very high-performance
rapid reaction forces by air into Eastern Europe during a period of strategic
tension. Such forces have the advantage of not requiring a significant
peacetime U.S. presence. On the other hand, these air-transportable
forces have less fighting power and tactical mobility than heavier
armored and mechanized forces—a serious deficiency in the event of
44 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
Russian military escalation. A critical challenge is when to decide to
employ these mobile forces during a strategic crisis.
Second, the equipment of heavy forces could be prepositioned
in a fashion similar to the Cold War–era storage sites. These require
a timely political decision for the troops to be airlifted to fall in on
the prepositioned equipment and move to the threatened area. If these
storage sites are too forward deployed in Eastern Europe, they may
become vulnerable to Russian preemptive action, including the use of
special forces and/or long-range precision munitions.
Finally, active mechanized/armored and armored motorized
forces could be forward deployed in Eastern Europe. This is the clearest
form of deterrence, with forces fully ready for combat, not unlike
the “trip wire” posture of the U.S. forces in Berlin during the Cold War
era. Currently, this is the politically most contentious option within
Europe. Most East European states would find a significant permanent
U.S. military presence reassuring. But many of the major Europe
powers, notably Germany and Italy, believe such a decision would be
provocative and could escalate the current crisis with Russia into a
second Cold War. Given the risks and benefits of these various deployment
and employment options, it is likely the U.S. Army and U.S. Air
Force posture will be a mix of all three approaches, a balance that may
well emerge out of the current Ukraine-Russia crisis.
Given the likelihood that unconventional threats will be a major
concern in the next decade or more, and assuming that the U.S. Army
will have a still-to-be-determined role in assisting the armies of the
eastern members of NATO, it is important that the Army retain the
skills and capabilities that are focused on that portion of the spectrum
of conflict. Importantly, within the Army today there is recognition
that the service faces a multifaceted, complex world that will require a
wide variety of capabilities.1
If the permanent presence of U.S. Army units in Eastern Europe
is determined to be necessary, the Defense Department and the Army
would need to decide what mix of units would be appropriate. If the
1 U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, The Army Operating Concept: Win in a
Complex World, 2020–2040, TRADOC PAM 525-3-1, October 7, 2014.
Conclusions and Implications for the U.S. Army 45
most important contributions to the Eastern European nations are
at the lower end of the spectrum of conflict, then intelligence, surveillance,
and reconnaissance (ISR), military police, and light infantry
units may be the most appropriate types to deploy to the region.
Should the principal concern be that Russia might escalate with highfirepower
“conventional” forces, the Army’s major contribution will
likely be conventional formations (e.g., brigade combat teams) and a
mix of air and missile defense units to support them, along with other
NATO Europe forces. Planners will need guidance to determine the
right mix of forces to deploy during peacetime and reinforce during a
future strategic crisis.
The greater the expectation that U.S. Army elements might have
to fight alongside the much smaller armies of NATO’s eastern flank,
the greater would be the need for considerable training with them for
combined operations. In the unlikely event of an overt “conventional”
Russian provocation, many East European NATO armies would be
dependent on the United States for such capabilities as fire support
and enablers, and perhaps ground maneuver units to defend them.
Today, there is relatively little interaction between the U.S. Army and
the militaries in Eastern Europe. That interaction should be significantly
increased as part of a broader strategy to enhance the defense
and deterrence posture of Eastern Europe.
During the Cold War, European NATO members were able to
provide considerable infrastructure and logistics support to U.S. Army
forces based in Europe. Today, the situation is very different, due to
the significant reduction of European NATO defense establishments
and infrastructure.2 Should U.S. forces be stationed or regularly exercise
in these areas, an assessment of the infrastructure in the region
and its ability to support an increased U.S. military presence would
be needed. This would include the need to establish a new joint (and
possibly combined) headquarters in the region to manage the overall
2 For a comprehensive discussion, see F. Stephen Larrabee, Stuart E. Johnson, John Gordon
IV, Peter A. Wilson, Caroline Baxter, Deborah Lai, and Calin Trentkov-Wermuth, NATO
and the Challenges of Austerity, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-1196-OSD,
2012, p. i.
46 The Ukrainian Crisis and European Security: Implications for the United States
American effort, should policy decisions make the stationing of large
forces there necessary.
An important joint issue is determining the U.S. Air Force
requirements that would be needed to adequately support an increased
U.S. Army presence in Europe. Conversely, what capabilities might
the Army be called on to provide in support of new Air Force posture
and operations (e.g., theater missile defense, Short Range Air Defense
[SHORADS], logistical support)? Although the Russian Armed Forces
is much smaller than the Soviet-era Red Army, it will likely be equipped
with a wide range of long-range precision strike missile systems. If a
future crisis began with the use of more subtle and clandestine military
violence but then escalated into a regional European war, NATO
would face the prospect of long-range precision attacks at the tactical,
operational, and strategic level, particularly if Moscow decides to leave
the INF treaty and develops long-range cruise and ballistic missiles.
In conclusion, the U.S. Army needs to assess the likely requirements
in support of a U.S. national security strategy that is undergoing
dynamic change in the face of immediate and likely enduring military
challenges that have rapidly emerged in Eastern Europe. Given
the constraints on Army force structure and modernization budgets
in the coming decade, choices about what forces to commit to Eastern
Europe will be difficult. Furthermore, much is still uncertain about a
possible increased NATO and/or American military commitment to
Eastern Europe. However, this reinforces the importance of developing
an array of options and carefully examining their military and political
implications.
Finally, it is important to note that several of the considerations
put forward in this report, such as increasing the U.S. military’s posture
in Europe, involve political risks that are beyond the scope of this
document to address. Furthermore, and for similar reasons, we offer no
judgment on the wisdom of increased investments in defense to address
the increased uncertainty and risk in Europe in the context of the overall
U.S. fiscal situation. Rather, we note that the status quo that existed
when the most recent defense strategy documents were produced has
changed and that a reexamination of commitments, both in terms of
forces in Europe and defense outlays, is in order.
47
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ARROYO CENTER
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RR-903-A 9 780833 088345
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Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex Crimea and attempt to destabilize eastern
Ukraine have sparked widespread concern among Western policymakers
that Russia has embarked on a more confrontational policy that could have
far-reaching implications for Russia’s relations with the United States and for
European stability. The annexation of Crimea challenges two basic assumptions
on which U.S. policy toward Europe in the post-–Cold War era has been based:
(1) that Europe is essentially stable and secure, thereby freeing the United States
to focus greater attention on other areas, particularly Asia and the Middle
East, and (2) that Russia had become more of a partner than an adversary. The
annexation of Crimea and attempt to destabilize eastern Ukraine suggests that
both these assumptions need to be revisited. After the annexation and its effort to
destabilize eastern Ukraine, Russia can hardly be viewed as a partner. The United
States will thus have to reexamine the basic premises on which its European
policy is based as it adjusts to deal with a more nationalistic and assertive Russia.