Notes

Wednesday: Surface high pressure, though weakening, will remain
in control over Central NC on Wednesday as a weak cold front
approaches from the NW. This should support generally dry conditions
across the forecast area. The minor exception could be across the far
southern tier counties, as the mid-level disturbance/weak mid-
level circulation currently over east central Florida is forecast to
drift northward to near the NC/SC coast Wednesday afternoon.
DPVA associated with this feature combined with enhanced SELY
onshore flow from the attendant low pressure over northern
Florida/southern Georgia could result in an isolated shower or two
drifting north/northwestward into the southern coastal areas.

Above normal temperatures will persist with highs in the upper 80s
to around 90, with se/coastal portions of the state possibly seeing some
of the coolest readings underneath a broken to overcast mid/upper level
cloud deck associated with the nearby mid-level circulation.

Wednesday night: There`s some minor disagreement with the timing
of the cold front into the area late Wednesday night/early Thursday.
Either way, unfavorable nocturnal timing combined with lack
of moisture availability will not bode well for convective rain
chances and thus will keep forecast dry. Lows overnight 66 to 71.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM Tuesday...

Below normal forecast confidence for the extended period as NWP
guidance struggles the with handling of the low and mid level low
across northern FL early in the period, the coolness associated
with air mass change late in the work week and the ejection of
upper level energy across the four corners region.

A cold front will be pushing across the region early Thursday and
then stalling across the southern Carolinas on Friday. Some of the
guidance is a little bullish on precipitation chances associated
with the front and the weak upper trough with this system. While
there is some low-level moisture advection off the Atlantic, it
is rather limited with limited forcing for ascent we`ve
restricted PoPs to the slight chance or low end chance range. One
item to monitor is the weak tropical low over northern Florida
that guidance has trended northward recently which could bring
increased precipitation chances across the southern tier on
Thursday and early Friday. Highs Thursday should range in the
lower to mid 80s.

High pressure centered over New England will extend into the
region on Friday trying to inject a cooler air mass into the area.
NWP guidance differs on the character of the air mass with the
typically cooler GFS MOS giving highs of 77/79/83 at
Greensboro/Raleigh/Fayetteville on Friday while the ECMWF gives a
high of 83/86/87. Given recent performance, will trend toward the
warmer EC guidance.

More uncertainty arrives for the weekend into early next week as
ridging develops across the northern Gulf of Mexico and a trough
across the western U.S. begins lifting out into the northern
Plains and Northeast late in the weekend. The 12Z ECMWF is more
similar to the GFS solution with a piece of the upper trough
ejecting and moving across the U.S. Canadian border while holding
some energy across the southwest U.S. and developing a stronger
ridge across the Southeast. Precipitation chances look best on
Sunday into Monday but confidence in forecast details is rather
low at this time. Highs will range in the lower to mid 80s in most
locations with morning lows in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.