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Three Thoughts Relevant To Crypto (A.K.A. The World’s First Global Casino)
Lou Kerner
Lou Kerner
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Jan 7, 2018 · 4 min read



With Ripple’s fully diluted value at $343 billion, it’s the 10th most valuable company in the U.S., ahead of Bitcoin (not forgetting P&G and …).

How can that be? I’m reminded of one of the classic lines in movie history, the reason Captain Louis Renault gave Humphrey Bogart (Rick) for shutting Rick’s Cafe in Casablanca:

1. The Difference Between Investing & Gambling Is ….
According to Investopedia, Investing is “The act of committing money to an endeavor with the expectation of obtaining an additional income or profit.” Warren Buffett defines investing as “… the procedure of laying out cash now to get more money later on.” Interestingly, you should use those same definitions for gambling. So what’s casino games online reviews, casino game online reviews, casinogamesonlinereviews.com, casino games reviews, casino games online between your two?
I believe the fundamental difference between the two is that gambling involves random chance while investing requires RESEARCH. That’s what We used to do for a living. I was a research analyst at Goldman Sachs. It had been hard work. But I really liked it because I love performing learning.
But many “investors” think investing in the stock market, or Crypto, is like walking right into a casino. They throw money at a share or a token, or a basket of stocks or tokens, based on a rumor, tip, or something they believe. They do little research (if any) into each token. Traditionally, it goes great (see internet investing 1996-1999) until it doesn’t (see internet investing 2000)
There are two reasonable explanations for Ripple being worth more than many of the greatest company’s on the planet. The first is that it’s different this usually time. Could be. But if you read “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly”, you almost certainly think it’s reasupon #2. That people are simply gambling, without care or concern for things as mundane as valuation.
2. Crypto Has Evolved INTO THE First Global Casino
For the first time ever, anyone anywhere, can take money, and buy some tokens. If indeed they were doing research, I’d call that investing. But they’re not performing study. Therefor, all they’re doing is gambling. Crypto has evolved into the world’s first global casino.
And the reality is, there’s NOTHING shocking about it. Humans love gambling. I've a word for the tendency of markets to become bubbles, crash, and turn out to be bubbles again. I call that CAPITALISM. That’s what we do (see U.S. currency markets circa 1927, 1937, 1973, 1987, 1999, 2008). It’s not just Americans. When the great Japanese land bubble peaked in 1989, at $1 million/square meter, the Imperial Palace in Tokyo became worth more than all the property in California combined. The Japanese weren’t investing in real estate, they were betting in actual estate. For ten years (1980-1989) it worked, until it din’t. By the time that bear market ended, in 2005, prices were performwn 99%, back to where they started 25 many years earlier.

To put things in to perspective, all of crypto is worth about $830 billion. That’s about 1% of the total global equities market, that is over $80 trillion.
3. The Crypto Gambling Going On Today WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE An Asterik When The History Of The Greatest Wealth Creation Period Ever Is Written In twenty years
In an earlier post I titled “The Crypto Bubble Isn’t A Bubble It’s A…”, I put this Crypto moment in to perspective relative to where I believe Crypto is going to be in twenty years. This bubble, and eventual crash, will you need to be a blip when viewed in the context of the massive wealth creation ahead from Crypto.
As I’ve written previously, Amara’s Law: We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the impact in the long run, is area of the reason we get bubbles.
Here’s Amara’s law in graphical form:

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