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vision forward blurry
- Will central banks be effective
- recession fears self-fulfilling?
- Need good news on trade or global growth to pick up
Bonds
Forward returns highly correlated to starting point of yields
5yr return= 0.87 correlation
10yr return= 0.95 correlation
Bonds up big- what happens if rates rise?
1950 10yT= 2.3 ----> 1981 10yT= 14.6
** 10 yr averaged 3% in that time
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