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Austerity hasn't been used in UK in 10 years -
-is it needed
- should we use it
- should it be ended
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Monetary policy
- August 2016 - MPC - Cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25%, 6 Billion in Quantitative easing
- Need for the UK MPC to increase interest rates,
Mark Carney has talked about increasing the interest rates
US have been raising interest rates
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Supply sides to boost productivity
- Natural rate of unemployment
- Boost competitiveness
- Current account deficit
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UK's current account deficit
- Consequences of large deficity
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Donald Trump has implemented protectionist policies
US and China trade war
- Pros and Cons of protectionism/ free trade
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The impact of the weak point in the UK since brexit
- UK macro performance
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Globalisation
The impact of globalisation on developing and developed countries
- pros and cons of globalisation
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DEVELOPMENT
- trade vs aid
- market vs interventionist
GROWTH
- Annual growht rate 1.4% in 2018, lowest annual grwoth rate since the last recession
- Quaterly growth rate ( last quarter 0,2%)
- Growth forecasts 1.2% (2019), 1,4% (2020), 1.6%
- Real GDP/ capita - 29k
- Total GDP 2 Trillion
79% services, 14% manufacturing, 6% construction, 1% agriculture
Weak pound has little effect on our economy due to the low level of manufacturing
Unemployment
Highest rate since 1975 3.9% (natural rate if at 4% as estimated by the OBR)
- Youth unemployment 11%
- Long term unemployment 1.1% ( unemplyment lasting 1 year or more)
- Wage growth at 3.4%
- Consumer confidence is weakening
- Income tax bands 0% till 12.5k, 6.5k in 2010
- 20% from 12.5k to 50k ,
- 50k+ 40% and 45% 150k+
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Inflation - 1.9% according to CPI
Producer price infaltion - 2.4% - shows the future inflation
Inflation expectations - 2.7%
wage growth 3.4%
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Current account deficit - 4.4% GDP
Productivty and investment - BIG WEAKNESSES
- 19% below average of the G7
- Productivty is 18% below the pre crisis trend since the recession
- Exports not as competitive despite the weak pound
- Investment has been decimated since the brexit vote
- large drive of persisent account deficity
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Exchange rate
1= 1.3, 1=1.1.6
Eurozone econonmy
Slowing 1% annual growth
Us economcy full employment 3% annual growth
Better trade with US?
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