Notes

4. Which party won this key in the last few (at least two: 2012 & 2016) presidential elections? Do you think that a different result in terms of this key could have changed the results of those elections?
In the 2012 election, Obama was the incumbent, and I believe he won this key. With his term starting from 2008, he introduced many policies (ObamaCare, for example) that aimed to help the disadvantaged people; the lower class, and they were significant enough to be recognized by both the people who supported his policies, as well as those who did not. Regardless, the Democrats won this key in 2012.

In 2016, Trump won this key, and was elected into office. Key 7 is supposed to help the incumbent party because it best reflected what the party was able to do in the past; however with Trump, he sought to "Make America Great Again", by proposing to undo basically what Obama did, in order to bring up the people who were "neglected" during the Obama Administration—he wanted to help the middle class, but mostly the rich people; and this seemed to appeal to people.

I believe Key 7 was important for both Obama and Trump; with Obama, his success in his efforts with bringing up the disadvantaged people backed him up for reelection in the next term; as with Trump, I have heard many people say that "If you were to strip down Bernie Sanders and Trump from their word choices and personalities, they are essentially advocating for the same thing—bringing up the middle class", and I believe that the people who believed this played a huge role in helping Trump win Key 7.


5. Do you think the incumbent (Trump) will have this key in 2020? How easy is it to predict that? At what point could we be certain of this key? How important do you think this key will be in 2020?

I don't think Trump will have this key in 2020. Though he has implemented tax reforms and other things while all of us weren't really looking. Still, despite the Republican majority in Congress, President Trump largely failed to bring about two major promises of his campaign: The repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare, and the construction of a wall along the United States’ border with Mexico; we'd know for sure when Congress decides to pass the two controversial policies. I think Key 7 will be very important in 2020.