Notes

he way i see it, its going to 20 again or its going to zero
so i see it really as an super asymmetric bet
i am still somewhat surprised people have such a high % of their net worth in it since its so volatile but i am really risk averse
i think the two things that are going to be interesting is
a) if they get a professional etf off the ground
b) if they introduce the IMF sdr or some other derivative when the fiat sham falls apart
there are some other questions about if people will use it to hide money when there is a crisis however i personally think its too hard to do this sucessfully
thye biggest issue with crypto is its just too complicated for normies
there is hyper inflation coming at some point so realistically unless there is a better more secure crypto its going to do well against fiat

i suppose when i think of the future i dont really think of time. I more think about specific events that are likely to take place and what their ramifications would be.
one issue at the moment is that the way we have always delt with recessions is via stimulus. During recessions the average amount interest rates have drop is 500 basis points and there has also been some QE.
we are currently in year 10 of the current cycle (normally they are 7-8 years) so we are due a recession and it would seem from a lot of market data that this is going to be the case in about 1-2 years
the issue is that there are no monetary policies to fight the next recession with. Global interest rates are still really low and the fed in the effect of raising rates recently has been terrible on the financial markets.

so there is no capacity at the moment to use conventional to fight the next recession in the way that has been done before.
on top of this 0% rates over the last 10 years has wrecked the pension and insurance industry since they are premissed on the idea that you can save a little in your life time and later this will be worth a lot
so what goverments are about to be faced with is a pension crisis, on top of a recession they cant fight
so they have really two choices. print money to bail out the banks, or more likely since everyone will be out of work and rioting about how messed up the economy is. Just print money and give it people via UBI
either way they only option they really have at this point is to print their way into a collapse
since there is no sign at the moment that there is going to be an real economic responsibility
this is also cemented by the fact in the last crash no a single person went to jail over the countless frauds that took place
so its ultimately a positive for BTC but i dont know what the world is going to look like when we are btc millionaires

its normal at start of a recession that everything goes down. look at gold charts. People still have cash liabilities (tax rent etc) and need to fire sale assets to cover those
so yeah in the sort term people will likely dump them. the issue is, after that what is there. There are only 3 things to have in a recession cash, gold, govt bonds
its once they announce the moneary easing after the recession that the market bottoms and the inflation part takes over
i copied this from the net

A credit cycle follows the direction of the broad economy and is generally considered to have four distinct phases: expansion, downturn, repair and recovery. The expansion period is generally associated with relatively easy lending standards, availability of capital, increased borrowing and rising leverage metrics.
its repair that things will go up a lot
we are at the start of the downturn