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ABD'nin büyük mali açıklar verdiği göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, mevcut küresel genişleme önümüzdeki yıl da devam edecek, Çin sıkı olmayan mali ve kredi politikaları izliyor. Ancak 2020 yılına kadar, ekonomik ortam finansal kriz için olgunlaşacak ve bunu küresel bir durgunluk periyodu izleyecektir.
Bunun için 10 adet bariz neden var. Birincisi, şu anda ABD yıllık büyüme oranını % 2 ve bu potansiyelinin üzerine çıkılmasını zorlayan mali teşvik politikaları sürdürülmesi mümkün değildir. 2020'ye gelindiğinde, mütevazi bir mali sürüklenme büyümeyi % 3'ten % 2'nin biraz altına çekecek.
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