Notes

No Time to Go Wobbly: Why Britain Is Lobbying U S. Republicans on Ukraine The New York Times
US officials have also pointed to an increase in Russia's social media "disinformation". The intelligence official described the build-up as a "slow drip" and a "slow ratcheting up of pressure". Gemma Tetlow, chief economist at IfG, says that there are potential opportunities for UK producers in markets like barley, wheat and gas. IfG's Mr Bartrum says that this uncertainty is likely to slow recovery from the pandemic. The EU imports more than a third of its nickel from Russia, 28% of fertilisers and 27% of its mineral fuels.

Russia has made a series of security proposals, including a demand to rule out Ukraine's membership of the Nato defence alliance. BP Plc, Russia’s largest foreign investor, led the way on 27 February by announcing that it would exit its 20% stake in Rosneft, a state-controlled company. But he adds that this disruption is "nothing" compared to the ripple effect from rising energy prices. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has been highly critical of the EU's financial and military aid for Ukraine and has maintained close ties with Russia.
If the US abandons the military alliance, it will fall to European countries to ensure a Ukrainian victory, Mr OBrien says. A prominent war expert says the US is on the verge of lessening its support for, or even withdrawing from, NATO - with potentially catastrophic consequences for Europe. https://telegra.ph/Most-Russians-say-they-support-the-military-according-to-this-pollster--NPR-02-16 added that budget talks are "ongoing" and have "always been based on finding a compromise" acceptable to all member states. "This is a factual paper which does not reflect the status of the ongoing negotiations. The note does not outline any specific plan relating to the [long-term EU budget] and Ukraine Facility, nor does it outline any plan relating to Hungary," it said. Moscow says it cannot accept that Ukraine - a former Soviet republic with deep social and cultural ties with Russia - could one day join the Western defence alliance Nato and has demanded that this be ruled out. When asked about these comments, Mr Wallace said Mr Lavrov was "a master at these types of engagements and making those type of comments", but that there had been no deafness or blindness in his talks with Mr Shoigu.

Homes for Ukraine shows flaws – and opportunities – in the UK’s asylum system
Ms Batters said the shortage of crops would also affect meat production as farmers need it to feed their livestock. "The real danger is that farmers contract, they decide not to invest, they hold back from planting, and we produce less food," she said. The manufacturing trade body Make UK said about 3,800 firms exported goods to Russia while 1,200 brought in materials, despite only accounting for 0.8% of total UK goods exports and 2.1% of imports. “The recent shortages of components, such as microchips, could continue and expand into other areas as sanctions and export restrictions limit supply that feed into the wider supply chain,” Thornton added.


Mr Lavrov said he was disappointed with the talks, accusing Ms Truss of not listening to Russia's concerns and describing their conversation as "a dialogue between a deaf person and someone who was mute". But when asked about the state of UK-Russia relations, Mr Wallace said they were "a lot better than 0%" after Friday's talks. Mr Shogiu said the counter-proposals submitted by Nato and the US had now been reviewed and promised "our response will follow shortly". Western countries have rejected this and instead put forward other suggestions, such as cutting back nuclear weaponry. Security concerns have grown in recent days after Russia started huge military drills with neighbouring Belarus and was accused of blocking Ukraine's access to the sea. Russia wants assurances that Ukraine will never be allowed to join Nato; that Nato members will have no permanent forces or infrastructure based in Ukraine; and for a halt to military exercises near Russia's border.

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It killed at least 41 civilians, including a 15-year-old boy, wounded hundreds, and caused significant damage to civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital. Charles Michel, the president of the EU Council, added that Nato was “clearly embarrassed” by its inability to intervene in the conflict to help Ukraine. In the documentary, Ms Truss also admitted that the UK had not taken strong enough economic measures prior to the invasion to deter Putin.

The former Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain has long been criticised for describing Germany's attempted annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 as "a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing". "But the extent to which that is possible is impacted by uncertainty because it requires significant long-term investment and that won't be worth doing if this is purely a temporary blip," she says. Sanctions on Russia are already starting to worsen an acute cost of living crisis in the UK. Western powers are acutely aware this crisis is being closely watched by the rest of the world.
This is most likely to affect the two major pipelines that cross Ukraine to bring Russian gas to Europe.[17] An event such as this would imply localised disruption to the flow of Russian gas via Ukraine. In the most disruptive scenario Russia could turn off its supply of natural gas to Europe. If war broke out in Ukraine and Russian forces occupied large swathes of the country, many civilians might flee. But both of these demands would break key Nato principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all Nato members should be sovereign nations.


The union has written to the government to call for urgent action to help UK farmers produce enough food to keep supermarkets stocked and affordable. In addition, the price of gas - which is used to heat greenhouses and to make fertiliser - has soared. Some 30% of the world's wheat comes from Ukraine and Russia and exports will stop during the conflict, it says.

But because the UK operates in international gas markets, prices will be hit by any drop in global supply. "We are all going to suffer, but it will hit poorer people more than the average person as they spend proportionately more on heating and food." She also predicts a rapid short term boost to energy efficiency efforts across Europe, which would reduce energy demand.
While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members such as cyber and hybrid warfare, and even physical attacks. "But the extent to which that is possible is impacted by uncertainty because it requires significant long-term investment and that won't be worth doing if this is purely a temporary blip," she says. But despite limited overall trade, some parts of the UK economy are quite reliant on Russia.


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