Notes

How will Russia's war with Ukraine end? Here are 5 possible outcomes
Jones said that there were big risks involved in using nuclear weapons, especially if Putin detonates them in territories he has been claiming are Russian. There would also be a risk of nuclear fallout on Russian territory due to proximity. Russia would not seek to begin any new large-scale offensive into Ukrainian territory at this time and would take the time to build back up its fighting capabilities, the think tank said.


Jones said it is important to note that Ukraine has already achieved a significant victory in preventing Russia from achieving that goal. When it began its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, Russia's goal was to take over the country completely. If the fighting reaches a stalemate, there could be some negotiated, temporary cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine, according to Seth Jones, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, or CSIS, International Security Program.

Russia-Ukraine war: List of key events, day 704
"We want peace around the world," 70-year-old Kyiv resident Nina Albul recently told my colleague Hanna Palamarenko, "but we also want the world to know that it's okay for enslaved people to fight back." According to a poll by the independent Razumkov Centre, a majority of Ukrainians said they believe Ukraine is "heading in the right direction" in light of the war. This includes overwhelming domestic support for joining NATO and the European Union, despite both blocs expressing hesitation to Ukraine's membership for decades preceding the war. The obvious strategy is to try to break the road and rail corridor linking Russia proper to occupied Crimea, so cutting off the peninsula from its hinterland, with an attack towards Melitopol or Berdansk. Combine that with another attack on the now repaired 12-mile (19km) Kerch Bridge to the Russian mainland and Crimea would be increasingly isolated and vulnerable.


While the Chinese leader is committed to at least rough alignment with Putin, his fear of sanctions and international isolation will likely limit that solidarity. Besides buying Russian commodities, for example, China could forge closer technology ties since Russia has been cut off from semiconductors and other high-tech goods by Western, Japanese, and Taiwanese sanctions. But China itself is a major importer of semiconductors and may not be able to replace some high-end chips that Russia will need. But for all of Ukraine's heart and courage in facing down multiple, sustained attacks from Russia's military in the north, east and south of the country, many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow's military might. While Russia has occupied swathes of territory in the south and east of the country, Ukraine has put up a stronger fight than anyone expected and often humiliated Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion forces that, on paper, were meant to overwhelm Ukraine in days. So far, western countries have shown strong unity in wanting to help Ukraine force out Russia.

A peace deal
Therefore, the current Russia-Ukraine talks are taking the form of classical diplomacy negotiations between states mediated by politicians. Negotiations can be facilitated more actively, and ideally international experts on peace mediation should be involved as quickly as possible. Adding a democratic Ukraine in NATO would mark the utter and permanent defeat of Putin’s crusade to absorb it into a Russian empire. Because it would be hard to reverse after ratification by 32 NATO member parliaments, NATO accession — ideally by the end of 2024 — would also frustrate Putin’s plan to draw out the war until political winds in the West change. The invasion is likely to have major effects on people around the world. Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leaving millions of people fearing for their futures.


While the invasion of Ukraine was started and waged by Mr Putin, Alexei Navalny says the real war party is the entire elite and the system of power itself, which is an "endlessly self-reproducing Russian authoritarianism of the imperial kind". "The elites and potential successors are watching [Putin's] every military move, but they can already see that he has no place in their post-war vision of the future," Russian journalist Andrey Pertsev wrote in his analysis for the Carnegie Endowment. However, the man dubbed "Putin's chef" has also been a vocal opponent of the Kremlin's inner circle in recent months in a sign that power may be shifting among Russia's political class. Both sides could engage in a "step-by-step approach to a temporary peace", unfolding in a similar way to previous conflicts, including Cyprus after 1974 and Korea after 1954, Professor Clarke added. "From a Ukrainian perspective … after the losses that they have endured, particularly over the last year, the question will be … 'Why would they want to seek to negotiate over what is their recognised territory?'" https://desertoption93.bloggersdelight.dk/2024/02/14/ukraine-war-why-so-many-russians-turn-a-blind-eye-to-the-conflict-3/ said.


The vehicles carry the hope of enabling battlefield wins for Ukrainian forces that will lead to some kind of war-ending scenario — if the weapons arrive in time. That’s changed, with Germany now pledging to deliver Leopard 2 battle tanks and approving other countries’ requests to follow suit. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also recently authorized supplying infantry fighting vehicles to help push Russian forces out of occupied Ukraine. The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. What are some of the possible scenarios that politicians and military planners are examining?


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